Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[TuffGuy84]

Of all teams in the belt this year, I would not have picked FIU to be a RPI graveyard, yet their RPI is around 222 according to boydsworld, why are they SO low this year, even with a winning record.

Also, I know Its early, but I want to know what you think we need to do to have a shot as a host for a regional (As in a sub 16 RPI and/or conference championship and/or conference championship). I'd love to see us do it, and with LSU and Tulane having down years, you would think that there would be an open spot in the region.

Its all early, but its fun to think.

Thanks in advance,
Tuffguy

[Cajun Express]

Of all teams in the belt this year, I would not have picked FIU to be a RPI graveyard, yet their RPI is around 222 according to boydsworld, why are they SO low this year, even with a winning record.

Also, I know Its early, but I want to know what you think we need to do to have a shot as a host for a regional (As in a sub 16 RPI and/or conference championship and/or conference championship). I'd love to see us do it, and with LSU and Tulane having down years, you would think that there would be an open spot in the region.

Its all early, but its fun to think.

Thanks in advance,
Tuffguy

IMO we do not host unless both of those schools are a three seed. Being a number one seed at the Box or the Shrine on Airline would suck. I agree with your view that we need to host to proceed to the CWS. Clearly it would be very difficult to win one road series against quality competition, much less two.

[rhineaux]

IMO we do not host unless both of those schools are a three seed. Being a number one seed at the Box or the Shrine on Airline would suck. I agree with your view that we need to host to proceed to the CWS. Clearly it would be very difficult to win one road series against quality competition, much less two.

I know teams have hosted as #2 seeds, but as a #3 seed? If I were on the selection comittee, i would have a hard time with that, but that's probably why I'll never be on that committee. I would think that if LSU were to even get into the tournament, which at only a few games over .500, its questionable, although their RPI and SOS are still rather high, I doubt they would be a three or four seed. Its a tough comparison because we're crossing sports barriers, but, look at the season that Duke had this year, it was pretty bad, but they still ended up with a #6 seed (which would be a #2 in a regional). However, LSU baseball still has some work to do to get to where Duke was, they are bad this year, but they're not in the position that Duke was. I guess point being that because they're LSU, they'll get credit for their NC's in the 90s. If we, or Tulane wants to host another regional, we better do it this year, because i doubt any of us will get another after they get that new crib next year.

I don't know much about that team, but are they 16-2 v. Kentucky bad, or is it not that bad or what? Brian? Any comments? Is it a new system? Is it poor recruiting catching up?

[GoneGolfin]

I know teams have hosted as #2 seeds, but as a #3 seed?

He was not suggesting that a #3 seed would host. Simply that we would need LSU and Tulane to be #3 seeds in order to host. I do not agree with this. But I also do not think we will be hosting this season due to a number of reasons. Of course it is still early and things (including opinions) can change.

No #3 seed (since the new tournament format commenced in '99) has ever hosted as a #3 seed. I do not think one ever will (I think the NCAA SC would make the team a #2 seed, as they have done with Minnesota in the past). There were some #3 seed hosts in the previous six team regional format. Texas was one.

I don't know much about that team, but are they 16-2 v. Kentucky bad, or is it not that bad or what? Brian? Any comments? Is it a new system? Is it poor recruiting catching up?

Some of it is simply a new system. Some of it is the youth on the team. Some of it is lack of talent in some areas and that Manieri has just begun building the team he wants. LSU is in the middle of transforming itself from the power ball type program it was (and has not been successful since the 2000 CWS) to one that is more pitching and defense oriented. It will take a couple of years.

LSU has really suffered in the offensive production department this year (and last). The meat of their order is composed of freshman! With freshman, you are going to have inconsistency. Some of the veterans (such as Hollander and Waguespack) are not producing as expected (understatement). The pitching staff is not very deep, but there are some good arms here. The depth will come in the next couple of years. The Friday night starter (Furbush) is learning how to pitch at the Div. I level. He has good stuff. Not many lefties can touch 94 with a big breaking ball. But he is still making mistakes. I do see progress though. Jared Bradford (JC transfer) has been solid as a #2. The Tigers just got T.J. Forrest into the rotation a couple of weeks ago. Forrest is a true freshman that was the top high school pitching prospect in Louisiana last year. Sophomore Louis Coleman has made the transition to the closer role.

LSU is going to take its lumps this season. But I do not think they are far from being an NCAA Regional participant and still could be this season.

Brian

[Cajun Express]

I know teams have hosted as #2 seeds, but as a #3 seed? If I were on the selection comittee, i would have a hard time with that, but that's probably why I'll never be on that committee. If we, or Tulane wants to host another regional, we better do it this year, because i doubt any of us will get another after they get that new crib next year.

I don't know much about that team, but are they 16-2 v. Kentucky bad, or is it not that bad or what? Brian? Any comments? Is it a new system? Is it poor recruiting catching up?

My argument is we need to be a number one seed, and they need to be no better than a three seed if we are to host. :o :o :o :o :o

[rhineaux]

My argument is we need to be a number one seed, and they need to be no better than a three seed if we are to host. :o :o :o :o :o

I know what your argument was. I was just saying that the NCAA loves to reward teams on past performances, and that may come into play this year with LSU blowing, but still perhaps hosting a regional. they would not be a #1 seed, PROBABLY a #2 even though they wouldn't deserve it, but would most likely deserve a #3. And becuase they can pack 7k fans in there, I was wondering if the NCAA would reward them with being a host because of what they've done in the past, even though they don't deserve a spot anywhere in the Top 32 teams.

[GoneGolfin]

Of all teams in the belt this year, I would not have picked FIU to be a RPI graveyard, yet their RPI is around 222 according to boydsworld, why are they SO low this year, even with a winning record.

The problem mostly lies with the following schools on their schedule ...

Florida A&M (3-0), aRPI 281
Rhode Island (3-1), aRPI 268
Wagner (2-1), aRPI 261
Manhattan (0-2), aRPI 170

So, here you have 10/27 games against teams with an Adjusted RPI of 261 or below. Folks, it does not get much lower than that. There are 293 teams playing Division I baseball this season. An additional two games were against a team with an Adjusted RPI of 170 and both games were losses!

Just playing those ten games (aRPI 261 and below) kills your RPI. I pity the team that loses any of those games. FIU lost two of them. In addition to hurting the Base RPI by 1) scheduling these games and 2) losing two of these games, FIU also took an RPI penalty in losing those two aforementioned games. In the case of the Rhode Island loss, it was the maximum RPI penalty (loss at home to a non-conference Bottom 25 Base RPI team).

Now, I will say that Rhode Island is better than their RPI indicates and part of the reason their RPI is so low is that they are still early in their season. Some of the teams they have on their schedule are quite decent. They did take one of three from California. But they are 2-14 on this young season. I believe their RPI will climb and it will help FIU.

FIU, as well as some of the teams in the Sun Belt simply need to do a better job of scheduling. Now, it is more difficult for some teams to schedule well than others. I think UALR has some challenges. But I do not feel that FIU has many valid excuses. There are plenty of good Div. I programs nearby that fit the bill. They do not need to begin the non-conference season with 19/21 games at home. While the budget will limit some travel, they do not need to travel far to log some good games.

Also, I know Its early, but I want to know what you think we need to do to have a shot as a host for a regional (As in a sub 16 RPI and/or conference championship and/or conference championship). I'd love to see us do it, and with LSU and Tulane having down years, you would think that there would be an open spot in the region.

Its all early, but its fun to think.

Thanks in advance,
Tuffguy

I think this is going to be an extremely difficult year in which to host. Facilities questions aside for the Cajuns, I think Texas and the West will provide challenges to any school hosting in Louisiana this season. No team in Louisiana sticks out as an obvious #1 seed this season, nor is anyone a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, you have Texas, Rice, and Texas A&M all playing good #1 seed baseball. At least one would be a National Seed right now. Arkansas is a host. The state of Mississippi may host as well. That is five sites relatively nearby.

But I think there will be a change in the West this season. With Oregon State winning the national championship, more western teams having outstanding seasons this year, and Pat Murphy joining the Selection Committee, I think that the West will have at least four sites and possibly five this season. Oregon State and Arizona State are good choices at this point. Pepperdine and San Diego also have good shots. Finally, Cal State-Fullerton and Long Beach State are good possibilities (at least one). So, you are likely looking at 4->5 in the West.

I also think that several teams in the Big Ten are having good enough seasons (Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan) that it is becoming increasingly likely that one of them will host (The NCAA prefers to have representation in the North). Add in that we have not even covered the ACC or the rest of the SEC and the number of available host sites is quickly becoming small.

So, I would not be surprised if the state of Louisiana is not hosting this year, as was the case last year.

Brian

[Dad04]

I guess FIU scheduled Florida A & M because 0-22 Chicago State wasn't available that weekend.

[CajunProud]

C'mon guys. I would not have the Cajuns in my Top 25 either. They are not far away, probably Top 30. But I do not see any teams in the CB Top 25 or BA Top 25 that I would have behind the Cajuns at this point, except maybe Southern Cal (ranked #25 in BA). But there are also a few teams that I would slot in front of the Cajuns for that last spot in the BA poll.

Brian

Brian,

I really appreciate and respect your opinions and love when you post here or appear on Jay's show, but.......

How can you say that we don't belong in the top 25 when there are teams there with 7, 8, 9 and 10 losses? Yes, we have stumbled against some teams that we should have beat, but so has Rice and others in the top 25. You can't tell me that the BA staff has seen us play. Hell, college baseball is not televised so those guys can't be watching all the games. My feeling is, and I could be wrong, is that we are a victim of the "Mid Major" labeling just like we are in football and basketball. The people who vote on these polls are biased in favor of the big name schools from big name conferences. You can't honestly tell me that Kentucky deserves to be ahead of us. They have played absolutely nobody except for LSU, and as down as LSU is this year, they had trouble with them.

I'm not saying we are top 10, but come on. We are top 25. I'm not trying to pick a fight because like I said, I respect your opinion and love the insight you give us on this board. I guess we just have to agree to disagree.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

I really appreciate and respect your opinions and love when you post here or appear on Jay's show, but.......

How can you say that we don't belong in the top 25 when there are teams there with 7, 8, 9 and 10 losses?

You can't tell me that the BA staff has seen us play.

It is OK to disagree. But I think that unequivocally stating that "we belong in the Top 25" requires you to know something about and examine the teams in the Top 25 that you think the Cajuns should displace. You would also need to examine some of the teams in the vicinity of the Top 25 that also did not make the cut (and make the comparison to the Cajuns).

I am not trying to pick on you here, but since you posed the question, allow me to turn it around on you. How many of those teams have you seen play this season? How much do you know about them?

Now, I will say that I do not think the Cajuns are far away. But I do think it is nonsense to think that it is obvious the Cajuns should be in the Top 25. There are some very good teams in the 20 -> 30 range in all of the polls that are not far away from one another.

As far as some of the teams with 7 -> 10 losses are concerned, the answer is that their caliber of schedule far exceeds that of the Cajuns. Let's take Long Beach State for example. The Dirtbags are a non-inspiring 13-9. But when you look at their schedule and the teams they have beaten, you tend to cringe.

LBSU ...
- took 2/3 vs. Southern California with two of the games on the road
- took 2/3 vs. Texas
- took 1/3 at Rice
- took 2/3 at Arizona State
- took 1/3 at Wichita State
- took 1/3 vs. Cal State-Fullerton
- 2-0 vs. UCLA
- 2-0 vs. California

That is their entire schedule thus far! Do you see any patsies in that schedule? It is downright brutal and the wins they have registered are impressive. LBSU is playing .500 ball against the Top 25 and is over .500 against the RPI Top 25. This means they squarely belong in the Top 25 and in my opinion, are actually underrated. Normally, a .500 record against the Top 25 (especially with most of the games on the road) would mean that you should be ranked well into the Top 25, assuming the games are normally distributed over the rankings.

Long Beach State being in the Top 25 with nine losses is a no-brainer. But only after you examine their schedule.

Brian

[CajunApostle]

LBSU is also playing mostly teams from the west coast, who besides Cal State Fullerton is just completely sorry in baseball. But every teams arguement is relative to the person making the arguement.

[GoneGolfin]

LBSU is also playing mostly teams from the west coast, who besides Cal State Fullerton is just completely sorry in baseball. But every teams arguement is relative to the person making the arguement.

I assume the above was a joke.

Brian