Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[Cajun90]

_ These are the RPI standings for the teams that are ahead of us by only a single digit margin (as of Thursday morning, 5/24)

8 0.611 35 17 35 17 Long Beach State
9 0.611 41 16 41 16 South Carolina
10 0.605 41 15 41 15 San Diego
11 0.605 41 16 41 16 Texas A&M
12 0.604 42 13 42 13 Virginia
13 0.604 41 14 41 14 Louisiana

Since single digit margins are the most realistic to overcome b4 regionals, what do we need these teams to do in order to overcome them? how many of them can we possibly surpass, if any at all?

God Bless

GEAUX UL RAGIN CAJUNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! _

With numbers this close you can't just look at these teams. The opponents opponents can cause a shift also. For example Virginia's RPI could move today prior to their game with Georgia Tech due to other games early in the day involving teams that have a prior "connection" to Virginia. Virginia has 150 "common opponents" and any one of those could cause a shift to Virginia's RPI number. By the way the Cajuns have 152 common opponents.

I would say Texas A&M is the one we most likely have a shot at passing up as they already have one loss in their bracket of the Big 12 tournament and face Texas in a game this afternoon.

[GoneGolfin]

SEBaseball.com Adjusted RPI (through games of 5/23)

1 0.6395 Rice
2 0.6313 Texas
3 0.6252 Vanderbilt
4 0.6222 North Carolina
5 0.6202 Arizona State
6 0.6160 Florida State
7 0.6138 Coastal Carolina
8 0.6110 Long Beach State
9 0.6106 South Carolina
10 0.6046 San Diego
11 0.6045 Texas A&M
12 0.6044 Virginia
13 0.6041 Louisiana-Lafayette
14 0.6032 Mississippi
15 0.5968 Missouri
16 0.5938 Miami Florida
17 0.5931 Arkansas
18 0.5916 North Carolina State
19 0.5900 Clemson
20 0.5878 Southern Mississippi
21 0.5864 Arizona
22 0.5846 Mississippi State
23 0.5846 Wake Forest
24 0.5842 Georgia Tech
25 0.5830 Wichita State

I cannot emphasize how tight the RPI (Adjusted RPI) is between the 10->14 teams. If the right things happen today/tonight, the Cajuns can move into the Top 10. But they must beat Troy.

Brian

[Jacob81]

brian, why are san diego and lbsu so much higher on se than warren nolan?

[GoneGolfin]

brian, why are san diego and lbsu so much higher on se than warren nolan?

Because Warren Nolan is not an accurate version of the RPI used by the NCAA. Don't bother with it.

The SEBaseball.com RPI and Boyd Nation's RPI are very similar. The difference is that Boyd Nation does not count ties. SEBaseball.com and the NCAA do count ties. The SEBaseball.com RPI and the official NCAA RPI is scary close. I examine both in detail each week (same release dates).

Warren Nolan only computes the Base RPI, not the Adjusted RPI. The Adjusted RPI (which accounts for certain bonuses and penalties - I can describe if you like) is what is used by the NCAA. He also does not compute the Base RPI the way the NCAA does. His Nitty Gritty report is also inaccurate with respect to what the NCAA uses. See the following post ...

https://forumeus.com/sh...25&postcount=1

Brian

[NewsCopy]

MOBILE, Ala. - UL's baseball team jumped out to an early lead in its pivotal winners' bracket game late Thursday night in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament, couldn't make it stand up, and then turned to its biggest offensive threat at the most opportune time. Troy's Trojans had pushed across five runs in the fifth inning to build what looked like a comfortable 6-3 lead, especially with Sun Belt Pitcher of the Year Josh Dew coming in relief one-half inning later. But Cajun catcher Jonathan Lucroy took a hanging Dew slider over the left-field wall for a grand-slam homer in the top of the sixth inning, propelling UL to a 9-7 victory over the Trojans in Thursday's late-night contest at Eddie Stanky Field. "That was the whole difference in the game, because he (Dew) is that good," said Cajun coach Tony Robichaux. "We were fortunate enough to load the bases and Luke put a good swing on a pitch." The rest of the story Dan McDonald dmcdonald@theadvertiser.com

[NewsCopy]

Louisiana-Lafayette's Jonathan Lucroy apparently hadn't heard about -- or wasn't impressed with -- Troy relief pitcher Josh Dew's reputation. Dew, who had 90 strikeouts in 59 innings heading into Thursday's Sun Belt Conference tournament game, made his first appearance in the tournament in the top of the sixth with the bases loaded, one out and the Trojans leading by three runs. He gave up a run-scoring single to Matt Hicks, followed by a Lucroy grand slam that sailed well over the left-field fence to send the Ragin' Cajuns on their way to a 9-7 victory at Stanky Field. The blast, Lucroy's 16th homer and second grand slam of the year, was Lafayette's answer to a five-run fifth inning by the Trojans that featured five hits and threw the momentum in Troy's favor. The rest of the story By KIM SHUGART and TOMMY HICKS Sports Reporters

[El Sidonio]

(NCAA - as of may 21)------- Division I Only --------
Rank Name Conf W-L Road Neut Home Non-Div I
13 Louisiana Sun Belt 40-14 18-12 0- 0- 0 22-2 0-0

(boydsworld - as of today)
13 0.604 42 14 42 14 Louisiana

(warrennolan - as of today)
12 Louisiana 42 14 0.5984

(USA Today/ESPN Top 25 Coaches Poll - as of may 21)
24 Louisiana-Lafayette 40-14 96 NR

(Collegiate Baseball - as of may 22)
22. La.-Lafayette 40-14 447

(NCBWA - as of may 21)
24. Louisiana Sun Belt 40-14 2-1 28

[GoneGolfin]

I think that it is likely that the Cajuns will move past Mississippi and Virginia into the #11 spot, temporarily, and close ground on Texas A&M at #10 in tomorrow's RPI calculation. San Diego will fall a bit away from the Cajuns. Mississippi will lose a little ground, but will be very close to the Cajuns and can pass them with another win against a more tired Vanderbilt team tomorrow. Missouri and Clemson will fall further away, but Miami will close some ground on the Cajuns after the win over FSU.

Virginia, Mississippi, and possibly Miami and Arkansas will have a chance to pass the Cajuns tomorrow.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I think that it is likely that the Cajuns will move past Mississippi and Virginia into the #11 spot, temporarily, and close ground on Texas A&M at #10 in tomorrow's RPI calculation. San Diego will fall a bit away from the Cajuns. Mississippi will lose a little ground, but will be very close to the Cajuns and can pass them with another win against a more tired Vanderbilt team tomorrow. Missouri and Clemson will fall further away, but Miami will close some ground on the Cajuns after the win over FSU.

Virginia, Mississippi, and possibly Miami and Arkansas will have a chance to pass the Cajuns tomorrow.

Brian

Virginia jumped a significant amount, despite being idle (.0019) and the Cajuns actually fell .0002 because of what its opponents and opponents' opponents did yesterday. But everything else held above. The Cajuns are at #12, up from #13 ...

1 0.6403 Rice
2 0.6280 Texas
3 0.6275 Vanderbilt
4 0.6236 North Carolina
5 0.6200 Arizona State
6 0.6147 Coastal Carolina
7 0.6126 Florida State
8 0.6083 South Carolina
9 0.6076 Long Beach State
10 0.6070 Virginia
11 0.6065 Texas A&M
12 0.6042 Louisiana-Lafayette
13 0.6031 Mississippi
14 0.6012 San Diego
15 0.5966 Miami Florida
16 0.5930 Missouri
17 0.5926 Arkansas
18 0.5900 North Carolina State
19 0.5889 Arizona
20 0.5867 Wichita State
21 0.5861 Clemson
22 0.5849 Wake Forest
23 0.5832 Oklahoma
24 0.5820 Mississippi State
25 0.5820 Southern Mississippi
26 0.5813 Baylor
27 0.5807 Georgia Tech
28 0.5800 Cal State Fullerton
29 0.5798 East Carolina
30 0.5783 Nebraska
31 0.5769 UC Irvine
32 0.5744 Texas Christian
33 0.5734 Creighton
34 0.5732 Kansas State
35 0.5727 Oregon State

There is not a lot of difference between teams #8 -> #14 (South Carolina -> San Diego). The Cajuns still have room to move up if they win today.

Note that Southern Mississippi could fall out of the Top 25 RPI if Baylor wins today. Georgia Tech, CSF, ECU, and Nebraska could pass them as well. Mississippi State could stay in front of them or fall behind (both MSU and USM are idle here on out).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Arkansas 3 South Carolina 2 Final
Arkansas was already a lock for a host and #1 seed. But they may pass UL in the RPI. Maybe not today. But possibly if they win the SEC Tournament. They advance to the finals of the SEC Tournament and could be a national seed with a tournament championship. However, it is possible that the Cajuns could catch South Carolina with a win today.

Texas A&M 7 Kansas State 2 Final
A&M is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. However, A&M probably at least needs to make the Big XII Tournament finals (if not win it) to earn a #1 seed and host regional. If Texas beats Nebraska, Texas A&M will advance to the Big XII tournament finals after losing the opener to Nebraska. Texas A&M is now 15-14 in conference. The NCAA selection committee has never granted a #1 seed to a team finishing 5th or lower in conference and a non-winning record in conference games.

Virginia 0 North Carolina 0 (B 1st)
Again, this is simply important because Virginia is just ahead of the Cajuns in the RPI. Both will be hosting, North Carolina as a national seed and Virginia as a national seed if they can at least make the ACC finals.

Wake Forest vs. Miami
Cajun fans really need Wake Forest to win this one. A Miami win and a Florida State win sends the Hurricanes to the ACC finals. Miami could play its way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Miami is closing on on UL in the RPI.

Clemson vs. Florida State
Cajuns fans need Florida State to win this one. A Clemson win and Miami win sends the Tigers to the ACC finals. Clemson can play their way into a host regional with an ACC Finals appearance or ACC tournament championship. Clemson is closing on on UL in the RPI.

Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is a national seed and Mississippi is nearly a lock as a host. Mississippi is just behind UL in the RPI and will pass the Cajuns with a win today.

San Diego vs. Gonzaga
San Diego should be a #1 seed and host. But San Diego is not far behind the Cajuns in RPI.

Creighton vs. Wichita State
Wichita State must beat Creighton twice to win the MVC. If they do, Wichita State may work themselves in as a #1 seed and will host. If they are a #2 seed, they could still host. But the NCAA may decide not to have a regional in Columbia, Missouri and Wichita, Kansas. Hopefully Creighton knocks off Wichita State today in the first game.

Liberty 2 Coastal Carolina 2 (T 4th) Game #1
If Liberty rallies and defeats Coastal Carolina twice, Coastal Carolina's RPI could fall far enough that they will be close to the Cajuns. It is possible that the Cajuns could move ahead in the pecking order with a conference regular season championship and tournament title from the #7 RPI conference. As opposed to Coastal Carolina's regular season championship (11 RPI conference) only in this scenario. Also, common opponents between the two school? Troy. Coastal Carolina lost 2/3 at Troy in April. The Cajuns took 3/4 from Troy with three of those games at Troy.

Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
It is possible that Missouri could lose a #1 seed and host regional with an 0-3 conference tournament performance. But I think that Missouri is still a likely #1 seed and host after finishing second in the Big XII (#2 RPI conference).

Long Beach State at Cal-State Fullerton
It is not far fetched to think that the Cajuns could catch Long Beach State in the RPI. They lost last night to Cal-State Fullerton and have two more games against the Titans. Long Beach State is currently in third place in the Big West and could finish as low as fourth. These games will be interesting. Long Beach State is not a lock for a #1 seed and host regional.

Arizona is a threat to snag a fourth western regional and #1 seed. The Wildcats' season is finished and they currently sit at #19 in the RPI after finishing second in the Pac 10.

Brian