Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[GoneGolfin]

So then it would become what? A loss to a 100-150 ? (I don't know the range)

Is this looked at closer? Or is our record in that area so good the loss will get swallowed up?

The next bracket is the 101-150 range. The selection committee does not look at this range since it is neither

1) The group of teams that comprise a reasonable representation of the NCAA tournament field

and

2) Not what is considered the bad loss category.

The Cajuns' record in the 101-150 range is currently 14-3.

Brian

[Rebel02]

Brian,

Do paying members of sebaseball.com get to view the RPI that y'all compute? I've looked for it on the site, but can't seem to find it.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

Do paying members of sebaseball.com get to view the RPI that y'all compute? I've looked for it on the site, but can't seem to find it.

Every once in a while, Paul will post the complete RPI results in the Dugout (usually the Top 100). But there is no formal regular posting as this is intended as a resource for the writers.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The SEBaseball.com RPI is out this morning. As expected, the Cajuns dropped a couple of spots to #14 while Missouri and Miami closed some of the gap with the Cajuns. But the Cajuns are a mere .0004 behind Mississippi, .0007 behind Virginia, and only .0035 behind San Diego.

The Cajuns' important non-conference RPI is 13 and their road record is an impressive 18-12. Only a handful of teams in the Top 50 Adjusted RPI have more road wins than the Cajuns this season ...

Missouri (20-10) (aRPI 15)
Wichita State (20-7) (aRPI 20)
Oregon State (21-9) (aRPI 33)
Western Carolina (20-9) (aRPI 37)
Michigan (23-7) (aRPI 41)
North Carolina-Charlotte (22-6) (aRPI 49)

Only one team in the Top 25 RPI has played as many road games as the Cajuns (Missouri - also 30).

The Cajuns entered the UNO series with an RPI rating of .6026 (#13). Thus, the rating remained roughly the same (losing a miniscule .0006). New Orleans moved up some in Adjusted and Base RPI ranking and rating.

If the Cajuns were to go on an undefeated (4-0) run in the Sun Belt Tournament, they could end up with a Top 10 RPI. But this would not guarantee a #1 seed.

1 0.6391 Rice
2 0.6284 Texas
3 0.6281 Vanderbilt
4 0.6266 North Carolina
5 0.6162 Arizona State
7 0.6144 Long Beach State
8 0.6135 Coastal Carolina
9 0.6110 Texas A&M
10 0.6096 South Carolina
11 0.6055 San Diego
12 0.6027 Virginia
13 0.6024 Mississippi
14 0.6020 Louisiana
15 0.5975 Missouri
16 0.5969 Miami Florida
17 0.5932 North Carolina State
18 0.5923 Arkansas
19 0.5895 Clemson
20 0.5882 Wichita State
21 0.5876 Southern Mississippi
22 0.5870 Mississippi State
23 0.5848 Wake Forest
24 0.5844 Oklahoma
25 0.5843 Arizona

Looking at the very important records versus the Top RPI (Base RPI) teams, we have the following ...

Top 25 (1-5)
Top 50 (3-6)
Top 75 (9-6)
Top 100 (19-10)

However, Troy is hurting the Cajuns as they are about to fall out of the Top 50 Base RPI. Their Adjusted RPI is already at #53. The following are the Base RPI rankings and ratings in Troy's range. Troy is tied for 48 and is perilously close to falling out of the Top 50. Only .0006 separates Troy at #48 and South Florida at #51. Four other teams are right on their heels as well.

45 0.5639 Creighton
46 0.5631 Minnesota
47 0.5598 Louisiana State
48 0.5596 Troy
49 0.5596 North Carolina-Charlotte
50 0.5595 St John's
51 0.5590 South Florida
52 0.5589 Rutgers 36-18
53 0.5588 Oral Roberts
54 0.5584 UCLA
55 0.5582 Kentucky

The Cajuns need Troy to win in the Sun Belt Tournament (except of course when they play the Cajuns). While having Troy in the Cajuns' mini-bracket will help the Cajuns' RPI, it could also push Troy out of the Top 50. The selection committee will not like a 1-5 record vs. both the Top 25 and Top 50. Oklahoma State was the only #1 seed last season not to have a winning record against the Top 50. The Cowboys were 11-15 versus the Top 50. The worst records against the Top 25 last season for #1 seeds were ...

Cal State Fullerton 2-3 (18-11 vs. Top 50)
Alabama 6-9 (20-17 vs. Top 50)
Oklahoma 5-7 (15-12 vs. Top 50)
Oklahoma State 6-8 (11-15 vs. Top 50)

Note that Florida State was a #2 seed with an Adjusted RPI ranking of 10. They were 8-14 vs. the Top 25 and 14-16 vs. the Top 50. Florida State tied for 6th place in the ACC last season and was the #6 seed in the ACC Tournament.

As for the Top 100 record, as expected, Tulane (aRPI 102, bRPI 102) fell out of the Top 100 with their win over Chicago State Saturday. Thus, the Cajuns are 19-10 vs. the Top 100 instead of 19-11. Cajun opponents on both sides of the Top 100 bubble are ...

New Orleans (bRPI 95) (2-1)
Western Kentucky (bRPI 100) (2-1)
Tulane (bRPI 102) (0-1)
Lamar (bRPI 103) (2-0)
Louisiana-Monroe (bRPI 104) (3-0)
Louisiana Tech (bRPI 109) (2-0)

South Alabama is on the bubble for the Top 75 with a Base RPI of 76. Obviously it would be nice if the Jaguars can move into the Top 75 as the Cajuns are 3-0 thus far against USA. The Jaguars have an Adjusted RPI of 73.

So, looking at the above it is obvious which teams the Cajuns need to do well down the stretch.

Brian

[Cajun Express]

So RPI plus wins over top competition is the golden rule. I guess if we had stolen one from ASU, and one more from USM that might be the key ingredients missing. I like the idea of having to beat a good team, but only if the playing field is level. Some at home, some with your umpires, you know the kinds of leveling tools we never get, so we just gotta play better.

[GoneGolfin]

So RPI plus wins over top competition is the golden rule. I guess if we had stolen one from ASU, and one more from USM that might be the key ingredients missing. I like the idea of having to beat a good team, but only if the playing field is level. Some at home, some with your umpires, you know the kinds of leveling tools we never get, so we just gotta play better.

Yes, how a team performs against the Top 25/Top 50/Top 75 is one of the barometers in evaluating a potential NCAA Tournament team. In the case of evaluating #1 seeds, the committee wants to see a respectable record against the Top 25 (peers as a #1 seed) and to some extent the Top 50. Unfortunately, all of those games were on the road.

Brian

[NewsCopy]

The minute Jonathan Lucroy stepped off UL's practice field Monday, two scouts were waiting for him. It's a part of life for the Ragin' Cajun catcher, and has been ever since he wrapped up a standout sophomore season 12 months ago. It's even more a part of life with Major League Baseball's first-year player draft just over two weeks away, sandwiched right in between the NCAA Regional and Super Regional rounds. Right now, Lucroy's concerned about getting the Cajuns to those levels, a run that begins Wednesday in the opening round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament in Mobile, Ala. But the possibilities, what can happen in a life-changing draft moment, are in his thoughts. The rest of the story Dan McDonald dmcdonald@theadvertiser.com

[cjr3888]

I'm glad to see Tony has the 'Ardoin Rule' that helps keep the players focused.

[NewsCopy]

RPI Out * Cajuns No. 13 The NCAA's final Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) for baseball was released Wednesday, and the Cajuns remained in the No. 13 spot that they held the previous week. Rice remained the RPI leader followed by Vanderbilt, Texas, North Carolina, Arizona State, Florida State, Coastal Carolina, Texas A&M, Long Beach State and South Carolina. The rest of the story

[El Sidonio]

These are the RPI standings for the teams that are ahead of us by only a single digit margin (as of Thursday morning, 5/24)

8 0.611 35 17 35 17 Long Beach State
9 0.611 41 16 41 16 South Carolina
10 0.605 41 15 41 15 San Diego
11 0.605 41 16 41 16 Texas A&M
12 0.604 42 13 42 13 Virginia
13 0.604 41 14 41 14 Louisiana

Since single digit margins are the most realistic to overcome b4 regionals, what do we need these teams to do in order to overcome them? how many of them can we possibly surpass, if any at all?

God Bless

GEAUX UL RAGIN CAJUNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!