Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[RaginDave]

_ He is tanned. He is rested. He is ready. _

Great news, Dad04!!!

With we have been holding down the fort without Buddy for the past couple of weeks, can you imagine the fear that most of our competition will have with a rotation of Buddy, Hunter and Danny. Then through in that strong bullpen and Hawkins, Lucroy, Tatford and others.

Man, this could be a special year.

[TuffGuy84]

Great news, Dad04!!!

With we have been holding down the fort without Buddy for the past couple of weeks, can you imagine the fear that most of our competition will have with a rotation of Buddy, Hunter and Danny. Then through in that strong bullpen and Hawkins, Lucroy, Tatford and others.

Man, this could be a special year.

Don't forget about Solich, hes pitched VERY well lately, and to keep going, Harmon was outstanding at ULM and Laughter has even been showin the promise that we thought he always had. Our hitting is good enough to carry our defense as far as we want. This post season will be VERY fun.

Tuffguy

[Just1More]

_ Don't forget about Solich, hes pitched VERY well lately, and to keep going, Harmon was outstanding at ULM and Laughter has even been showin the promise that we thought he always had. Our hitting is good enough to carry our defense as far as we want. This post season will be VERY fun.

Tuffguy _

I'm stoked about postseason. This pitching staff is deep. I would also put Tony up against any coach in the country, especially in postseason play. If our defense keeps in check and the bats stay alive... it is going to be a whole lotta fun for us Cajuns.

[GoneGolfin]

The RPI approximation (SEBaseball.com) that is closest to what the NCAA actually uses has the Cajuns at #12 this morning, .0022 ahead of Virginia and only .0002 behind San Diego. The Cajuns would likely pass San Diego with a win today.

1 0.6389 Rice
2 0.6278 North Carolina
3 0.6270 Vanderbilt
4 0.6257 Texas
5 0.6179 Long Beach State
6 0.6159 Arizona State
7 0.6139 Florida State
8 0.6131 Texas A&M
9 0.6122 Coastal Carolina
10 0.6089 South Carolina
11 0.6055 San Diego
12 0.6053 Louisiana-Lafayette
13 0.6031 Virginia
14 0.5996 Mississippi
15 0.5964 Miami Florida
16 0.5957 Missouri
17 0.5952 Arkansas
18 0.5950 North Carolina State
19 0.5914 Mississippi State
20 0.5888 Clemson
21 0.5887 Wichita State
22 0.5859 Southern Mississippi
23 0.5836 Oklahoma
24 0.5832 Wake Forest
25 0.5828 Arizona

One thing to watch is what happens with Coastal Carolina this weekend. They lost last night to Winthrop and are now in a tie with Winthrop for the Big South lead. If the Chanticleers do not win the final two games of the series, they will not be the #1 seed in the conference tournament. If they lose the final two, they will not even be co-champions. I think they would lose a host regional if this were to happen. Their RPI is also falling into the range of the Cajuns.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

On a related note, the Cajuns likely will have one of their Top 100 losses removed today after Tulane completes its series with Chicago State. Just playing Chicago State will likely drop Tulane out of the Base RPI Top 100.

5/17 (Before loss in game 1 to Chicago State)
Adjusted RPI .5387, #74
Base RPI .5351, #78

5/18 (After loss in game 1 to Chicago State)
Adjusted RPI .5280, #94
Base RPI .5268, #93

5/19 (After game 2 win vs. Chicago State)
Adjusted RPI .5248, #97
Base RPI .5236, #99

It is tightly packed around the 100 mark (Adjusted RPI), with the opportunity for several Cajun opponents to move up.

97 0.5248 Tulane
98 0.5248 Iowa
99 0.5246 Mercer
100 0.5240 Lamar
101 0.5208 Old Dominion
102 0.5205 Western Kentucky
103 0.5204 Louisiana-Monroe
104 0.5199 Fresno State
105 0.5196 New Orleans

Brian

[Turbine]

the Cajuns likely will have one of their Top 100 losses removed today after Tulane completes its series with Chicago State

So then it would become what? A loss to a 100-150 ? (I don't know the range)

Is this looked at closer? Or is our record in that area so good the loss will get swallowed up?

[GoneGolfin]

So then it would become what? A loss to a 100-150 ? (I don't know the range)

Is this looked at closer? Or is our record in that area so good the loss will get swallowed up?

The next bracket is the 101-150 range. The selection committee does not look at this range since it is neither

1) The group of teams that comprise a reasonable representation of the NCAA tournament field

and

2) Not what is considered the bad loss category.

The Cajuns' record in the 101-150 range is currently 14-3.

Brian

[Rebel02]

Brian,

Do paying members of sebaseball.com get to view the RPI that y'all compute? I've looked for it on the site, but can't seem to find it.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

Do paying members of sebaseball.com get to view the RPI that y'all compute? I've looked for it on the site, but can't seem to find it.

Every once in a while, Paul will post the complete RPI results in the Dugout (usually the Top 100). But there is no formal regular posting as this is intended as a resource for the writers.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The SEBaseball.com RPI is out this morning. As expected, the Cajuns dropped a couple of spots to #14 while Missouri and Miami closed some of the gap with the Cajuns. But the Cajuns are a mere .0004 behind Mississippi, .0007 behind Virginia, and only .0035 behind San Diego.

The Cajuns' important non-conference RPI is 13 and their road record is an impressive 18-12. Only a handful of teams in the Top 50 Adjusted RPI have more road wins than the Cajuns this season ...

Missouri (20-10) (aRPI 15)
Wichita State (20-7) (aRPI 20)
Oregon State (21-9) (aRPI 33)
Western Carolina (20-9) (aRPI 37)
Michigan (23-7) (aRPI 41)
North Carolina-Charlotte (22-6) (aRPI 49)

Only one team in the Top 25 RPI has played as many road games as the Cajuns (Missouri - also 30).

The Cajuns entered the UNO series with an RPI rating of .6026 (#13). Thus, the rating remained roughly the same (losing a miniscule .0006). New Orleans moved up some in Adjusted and Base RPI ranking and rating.

If the Cajuns were to go on an undefeated (4-0) run in the Sun Belt Tournament, they could end up with a Top 10 RPI. But this would not guarantee a #1 seed.

1 0.6391 Rice
2 0.6284 Texas
3 0.6281 Vanderbilt
4 0.6266 North Carolina
5 0.6162 Arizona State
7 0.6144 Long Beach State
8 0.6135 Coastal Carolina
9 0.6110 Texas A&M
10 0.6096 South Carolina
11 0.6055 San Diego
12 0.6027 Virginia
13 0.6024 Mississippi
14 0.6020 Louisiana
15 0.5975 Missouri
16 0.5969 Miami Florida
17 0.5932 North Carolina State
18 0.5923 Arkansas
19 0.5895 Clemson
20 0.5882 Wichita State
21 0.5876 Southern Mississippi
22 0.5870 Mississippi State
23 0.5848 Wake Forest
24 0.5844 Oklahoma
25 0.5843 Arizona

Looking at the very important records versus the Top RPI (Base RPI) teams, we have the following ...

Top 25 (1-5)
Top 50 (3-6)
Top 75 (9-6)
Top 100 (19-10)

However, Troy is hurting the Cajuns as they are about to fall out of the Top 50 Base RPI. Their Adjusted RPI is already at #53. The following are the Base RPI rankings and ratings in Troy's range. Troy is tied for 48 and is perilously close to falling out of the Top 50. Only .0006 separates Troy at #48 and South Florida at #51. Four other teams are right on their heels as well.

45 0.5639 Creighton
46 0.5631 Minnesota
47 0.5598 Louisiana State
48 0.5596 Troy
49 0.5596 North Carolina-Charlotte
50 0.5595 St John's
51 0.5590 South Florida
52 0.5589 Rutgers 36-18
53 0.5588 Oral Roberts
54 0.5584 UCLA
55 0.5582 Kentucky

The Cajuns need Troy to win in the Sun Belt Tournament (except of course when they play the Cajuns). While having Troy in the Cajuns' mini-bracket will help the Cajuns' RPI, it could also push Troy out of the Top 50. The selection committee will not like a 1-5 record vs. both the Top 25 and Top 50. Oklahoma State was the only #1 seed last season not to have a winning record against the Top 50. The Cowboys were 11-15 versus the Top 50. The worst records against the Top 25 last season for #1 seeds were ...

Cal State Fullerton 2-3 (18-11 vs. Top 50)
Alabama 6-9 (20-17 vs. Top 50)
Oklahoma 5-7 (15-12 vs. Top 50)
Oklahoma State 6-8 (11-15 vs. Top 50)

Note that Florida State was a #2 seed with an Adjusted RPI ranking of 10. They were 8-14 vs. the Top 25 and 14-16 vs. the Top 50. Florida State tied for 6th place in the ACC last season and was the #6 seed in the ACC Tournament.

As for the Top 100 record, as expected, Tulane (aRPI 102, bRPI 102) fell out of the Top 100 with their win over Chicago State Saturday. Thus, the Cajuns are 19-10 vs. the Top 100 instead of 19-11. Cajun opponents on both sides of the Top 100 bubble are ...

New Orleans (bRPI 95) (2-1)
Western Kentucky (bRPI 100) (2-1)
Tulane (bRPI 102) (0-1)
Lamar (bRPI 103) (2-0)
Louisiana-Monroe (bRPI 104) (3-0)
Louisiana Tech (bRPI 109) (2-0)

South Alabama is on the bubble for the Top 75 with a Base RPI of 76. Obviously it would be nice if the Jaguars can move into the Top 75 as the Cajuns are 3-0 thus far against USA. The Jaguars have an Adjusted RPI of 73.

So, looking at the above it is obvious which teams the Cajuns need to do well down the stretch.

Brian

[Cajun Express]

So RPI plus wins over top competition is the golden rule. I guess if we had stolen one from ASU, and one more from USM that might be the key ingredients missing. I like the idea of having to beat a good team, but only if the playing field is level. Some at home, some with your umpires, you know the kinds of leveling tools we never get, so we just gotta play better.

[GoneGolfin]

So RPI plus wins over top competition is the golden rule. I guess if we had stolen one from ASU, and one more from USM that might be the key ingredients missing. I like the idea of having to beat a good team, but only if the playing field is level. Some at home, some with your umpires, you know the kinds of leveling tools we never get, so we just gotta play better.

Yes, how a team performs against the Top 25/Top 50/Top 75 is one of the barometers in evaluating a potential NCAA Tournament team. In the case of evaluating #1 seeds, the committee wants to see a respectable record against the Top 25 (peers as a #1 seed) and to some extent the Top 50. Unfortunately, all of those games were on the road.

Brian