Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

[GoneGolfin]

The reason some of those haven't effected us as much is because they are all road games, and road losses to bad teams aren't as bad as home losses to bad teams, as i understand it.

In the case of the Cajuns' schedule, the above does not apply. None of the Cajun losses this season would have resulted in an RPI penalty had they been played at home. And other than that, home/road plays no factor in the calculation of the RPI (on the penalty side).

Also, the RPI penalties only apply to non-conference road games.

In fact, the only game on the schedule that was an RPI penalty risk at this point was the opener against Nicholls State (which was won). McNeese State is now 23 spots out of the penalty range. There are no teams left on the schedule that are close to penalty range.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The latest RPI (4/7) is one of those situations where it becomes obvious that RPI is heavily dependent on how your opponents and opponents' opponents fare. (75% of the formula)

I don't have the SEBaseball.com numbers yet this morning, but the 4/6 Adjusted RPI was .6166 (#12). Boyd's Adjusted RPI from 4/6 was .616 (#12).

This morning, Boyd's Adjusted RPI was .614 (#13). A non-trivial drop after a decent win against a Top 100 RPI club. Why? It was due to Cajun opponents, especially the higher rated ones (RPI bonuses dwindle), not performing well last night.

The following non-conference Top 75 RPI Cajun opponents lost last night ... the only non-conference Top 75 RPI opponents thus far ...

Southern Mississippi (at Central Florida)
Southeastern Louisiana (vs. McNeese State)
Texas-San Antonio (at Texas-Arlington)

Other non-conference Cajun oponents lost last night, but I focus on the above schools since they constitute RPI bonus points for the Cajuns. Both Southeastern Louisiana and Texas-San Antonio dropped a bonus level with last night's losses (from Top 50 Base RPI to Top 75 Base RPI). Southern Mississippi continues to slump and may soon find themselves outside of the Top 50 Base RPI.

Remember that opponents winning percentage constitutes 50% of the Base RPI.

For those that are interested, Arizona State (aRPI 21) did win last night over Stanford. Those that would like to see the Sun Devils play may be able to catch them on DirecTV channel 649 at 3pm today. Josh Satow threw last night for the Sun Devils and Mike Leake will probably go today. Tulane's loss to Memphis (aRPI 23) dropped them to #56 in Boyd's aRPI.

Incidentally, we are now at the point of the season where the RPI is becoming meaningful (as far as stability of the formula is concerned). We are now at the point of the season where half of the field of 293 Div. I teams are connected to a degree that make the RPI system meaningful.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The latest RPI (4/7) is one of those situations where it becomes obvious that RPI is heavily dependent on how your opponents and opponents' opponents fare. (75% of the formula)

I don't have the SEBaseball.com numbers yet this morning, but the 4/6 Adjusted RPI was .6166 (#12). Boyd's Adjusted RPI from 4/6 was .616 (#12).

This morning, Boyd's Adjusted RPI was .614 (#13). A non-trivial drop after a decent win against a Top 100 RPI club. Why? It was due to Cajun opponents, especially the higher rated ones (RPI bonuses dwindle), not performing well last night.

The SEBaseball.com numbers are in ...

The Adjusted RPI fell from .6166 (#12) to .6129 (#15). The Base RPI fell from .6082 (#17) to .6063 (#19). Notice that the aRPI fell a little more than the bRPI.

The Base RPI (used in the bonus calculations) for USM, UTSA, and SLU are #38, #54, and #65 respectively. Before last night, both UTSA and SLU were Top 50 Base RPI.

Brian

[Dad04]

Posted by GoneGolfin:For those that are interested, Arizona State (aRPI 21) did win last night over Stanford. Those that would like to see the Sun Devils play may be able to catch them on DirecTV channel 649 at 3pm today. Josh Satow threw last night for the Sun Devils and Mike Leake will probably go today. Tulane's loss to Memphis (aRPI 23) dropped them to #56 in Boyd's aRPI.

Thanks for the heads up.

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks for the heads up.

Pepperdine is also on CSTV today (3pm). Although Barry Enright threw on Thursday night (conference weekend opener).

Pepperdine looks like a regional host again in Malibu.

[GoneGolfin]

Incidentally, we are now at the point of the season where the RPI is becoming meaningful (as far as stability of the formula is concerned). We are now at the point of the season where half of the field of 293 Div. I teams are connected to a degree that make the RPI system meaningful.

At this point, the Cajuns are connected to about 33% of the Division I field.

Only 31 of the 293 Division I teams are not connected to at least 25% of the Division I field. There are 40 schools that are already connected to at least half of the Division field. More than half of the field (156/293) is connected to at least 35% of the field.

Brian

[lxa656]

_ At this point, the Cajuns are connected to about 33% of the Division I field.

Only 31 of the 293 Division I teams are not connected to at least 25% of the Division I field. There are 40 schools that are already connected to at least half of the Division field. More than half of the field (156/293) is connected to at least 35% of the field.

Brian _

Is it too early to start projecting the regionals? Is SEBaseball.com still doing that this season?

If it isnt to early, what are your predictions, strictly from a Cajun point of view?

One last thing Brian, where are you from and where did you go to school?

Thanks!

[GoneGolfin]

Is it too early to start projecting the regionals? Is SEBaseball.com still doing that this season?

If it isnt to early, what are your predictions, strictly from a Cajun point of view?

One last thing Brian, where are you from and where did you go to school?

Thanks!

Mark took a cut at the regional field last week. But he had some mistakes as he did not adhere to all of the NCAA placement rules (Ex. two teams from the same conference in a regional, two #1 seeds from the same conference being paired in a potential SR matchup). I am sure he will have those corrected this week in another run at the field.

Obviously, it is just for entertainment purposes at this point. I think it is far too early to be meaningful.

I think that the state of Texas would have three regionals at this point (Rice, Texas, and Texas A&M). The state of Mississippi would probably have two (Mississippi State and Mississippi), although Mississippi would be at risk of losing theirs. Arkansas would also have one. I would think that the Cajuns would be somewhere in Texas. Pick one ... it could be Rice, Texas, or Texas A&M. It would be fun to go to A&M for the first time. Somewhere in Mississippi is definitely a possibility. It really depends on how many teams near those geographies make the field.

I was born in California, grew up in New Orleans (arrived when I was three years old), and attended UL (BS and MS in Computer Science).

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

If the season ended today do you see the cajuns as a #2 seed?

[GoneGolfin]

If the season ended today do you see the cajuns as a #2 seed?

Yes.