ESPN with another breakdown. WOAH
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns versus East Carolina Pirates
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 22)
ULL is favored by 5.5 points
College teams face significantly disparate schedules, yet nearly half of them reach the postseason on the basis of win-loss records alone. There are therefore a few bowl entrants each year that stand out as really below-average FBS teams. East Carolina is one of this year's weakest. The Pirates -- who rank an abysmal 114th in Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings -- have played only four fellow bowl squads this season, beating none while getting outgained by a whopping 160 yards per game, easily the worst mark among this year's postseason contestants.
The rest of East Carolina's FBS schedule reads like a who's who of Conference USA doormats, seven wins over teams that scraped together a combined 22 victories. When allowing 59 points and 633 yards at home in an overtime escape against a 5-7 Marshall team qualifies as your best performance, it's time to get philosophical about "earning" a bowl berth while the likes of Tennessee, Utah and Missouri sit at home.
East Carolina does have some offensive firepower, principally in the form of 1,000-yard receiver Justin Hardy, who amazingly has 69 more grabs than the second-leading yardage-gainer. The Pirates also sport a 1,000-yard rusher in Vintavious Cooper, but coordinator Lincoln Riley is an Air Raid disciple straight from Mike Leach's high plains school of offense, which means that as Hardy goes, so goes the offensive production.
A Ragin' Cajuns offense with the nation's third-best red zone touchdown rate is even more productive. The powerful running game is peaking late in the year behind the Sun Belt's best offensive line and the passing game features a trio of big-play receivers and a quarterback who ranks in the nation's top 25 in passer rating. This bunch is both efficient and explosive and will have its way with an East Carolina defense that allowed the likes of Southern Miss and Tulane to turn in above-average performances.
Louisiana's defense is by no means a shutdown unit, but this group has held half its foes under 75 rushing yards and fields a serviceable pass rush, a half dozen all-conference selections and a heart-and-soul leader at middle linebacker. The defense also has what it probably needs most in this particular matchup: a pair of decorated senior cornerbacks who can keep Hardy from going ballistic. Throw in an utter mismatch in the kicking game and a rowdy partisan crowd and you've got an easy decision.
The pick: Louisiana-Lafayette 52, East Carolina 28
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Originally Posted by Crawfish
