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Bowl Possibilities
2006-11-26
Brandon Johnson
Alright, there’s not much to say about the game against ASU. Most of us will admit that we were out-everythinged in that game and probably weren’t going to win even with Willie Tuitama in the lineup. That said, a lot of people are saying there is no chance for a bowl game. However, I’ve done some research and if my findings are correct, Arizona still has an outside shot at a bowl game. Here’s how it breaks down:
There are 64 bowl slots available. There are 73 teams who have six wins or more and thereby meet the necessary criteria for a bowl berth. Teams with only six wins cannot be placed in a bowl game until all teams with seven or more wins have been placed. The ONLY exception to this rule is if a conference has a guaranteed tie-in. In the case of the Pac-10, this means a 6-6 UCLA team (assuming they lose to USC) will probably get the conference’s guaranteed spot in the Hawaii bowl.
Troy and Louisiana are both 6-5 heading into their final games next week. If both win, that would mean there are 64 teams that meet the criteria of seven wins OR a conference tie-in. Troy is playing winless Florida International so don’t count on much there. Louisiana faces rival Louisiana-Monroe (3-8) so that seems like the better shot of the two. For the sake of argument, let’s say that one of them loses. That would create a situation where 10 teams with a 6-6 record would be fighting for ONE FINAL SPOT. Those teams are…
Arizona
Washington St.
Pittsburgh
Kansas/Oklahoma St. (one will get a tie-in and the other becomes part of the ten)
Alabama
New Mexico/Wyoming (one will get a tie-in and the other becomes part of the ten)
SMU
Kent St.
Arkansas St.
Troy/Louisiana (if one of them loses)
The Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego has one of the few “at-large” spots available in a bowl game. That means they can take anyone they want. It also means they are likely to get stuck with the team #64. Of the teams listed above, Arizona has the best shot to get to San Diego.
The proximity of Tucson to San Diego would make it easy for fans to attend the game and this, combined with Arizona’s hunger for any bowl appearance, could be enough. Pittsburgh, Kansas/Oklahoma St., SMU, Kent St, Arkansas St., and Troy/Louisiana probably wouldn’t be able to provide the fan support that the other schools (particularly Arizona) would. New Mexico/Wyoming are out because a Mountain West team (probably Utah) gets an automatic berth in the game. Alabama is the biggest name on the list but they have just one win against a team .500 or better (Hawaii). Washington St. lost to Arizona and lost their last three so it’s hard to imagine them being picked over Arizona. Arizona has four wins against .500 or better teams and all of those teams spent some time in the Top 25 this year.
So there you have it. We are now Florida International/Louisiana-Monroe fans. In the event that Troy and Louisiana both win, that wouldn’t automatically rule out the Wildcats. Any team can decline an appearance in a bowl game thereby opening up a spot for another team (Arizona did this with the Humanitarian Bowl in 1999 when they finished 6-6). Also, the Hawaii Bowl could pick Arizona over UCLA. There is no official tiebreaker beyond first place so the bowl can take whomever they want from UCLA, Arizona, and Washington St. It’s hard to imagine UCLA not getting it since they beat Arizona and would probably bring the most fans.
No matter what happens, this season was exactly what we needed it to be – a step forward. The loss to ASU was incredibly disappointing but beating Wazzu, Cal, and Oregon in consecutive weeks takes a lot of the sting off. Next year at this time we won’t be discussing “if,” we’ll be discussing “where.”
Re: 3 Sunbelt teams in bowl games?
Originally Posted by levetsj
http://regulus2.azstarnet.com/blogs/...-possibilities
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Re: 3 Sunbelt teams in bowl games?
