Predict UL's 2012 FB Record

[Bandwagon King]

I guarantee that we won't be favored in the games against Ok. State or Florida. The early future lines have us as 23 point dogs to Ok. State and 22 point dogs vs Florida. It would be a miracle if the lines were less than 20 when those games arrive.

I guess we'll see come November.

[sportsfanatic21]

I guess we'll see come November.

Just remember, those lines are set to get equal action on each team. They are not a prediction in the point differential between the teams in the game. If we are undefeated, and Florida is at .500, the fact that the name on their jersey says "Florida" and that the game will be in their stadium, the majority of the betting public would bet Florida minus 3 TDs every time. And the betting line will reflect that.

[Bandwagon King]

Just remember, those lines are set to get equal action on each team. They are not a prediction in the point differential between the teams in the game. If we are undefeated, and Florida is at .500, the fact that the name on their jersey says "Florida" and that the game will be in their stadium, the majority of the betting public would bet Florida minus 3 TDs every time. And the betting line will reflect that.

If that's how you do it then so be it. Let us give the betting public a little more sense than that & please let us give Vegas oddsmakers more credit than that. The only reason the spread is what it is now, is because the season hasn't started yet. While the Vegas people most likely hail from Missourri with their show me menatality, it doesn't take them long to start changing numbers, especially on a college board. Like I said we'll see in a couple of months. In the mean time it sounds like UL is the lock of this millenia at 20+ against a sorry overrated school like Florida. I feel a road trip with the peppa pit coming on. What say you guys? Who's game? I'm going dressed as Troy Landry from Swamp People. This will be the road trip of a life time.

[CharlieK]

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports...rticles-08.htm

[Bandwagon King]

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports...rticles-08.htm

An oddsmaker must take into account every possible thing which may affect the outcome of an event.

Some of the more important information looked at is the quality of the teams or participants, injuries, incentive to win, weather and field conditions, where the contest is being played, history of the match-up, what each team has done recently, and what do they have ahead of them, not to mention any special particulars such as how players on a team are getting along, trade rumors, etc.

In a nutshell, handicappers must pay attention to every detail which he feels may influence a final score. He must also determine a number which will be acceptable to both sides of the bet. In other words, will the number attract enough attention on each side. When the majority of bets fall on one side, the original number was probably not a good one. In these cases, a sportsbook will adjust the line up or down in order to try and encourage people to bet the other side.

Now, it is important to know that while the day-to-day information is used to help adjust spreads as a season progresses, the basic numbers are calculated and analyzed prior to the beginning of each season. Odds makers look at the previous season's numbers, off-season moves and transactions, coaching changes, health of players, etc. These factors are mixed together through a series of special formulas and used to determine what is commonly called Power Rankings.

As a season progresses, a team's Power Rank number is adjusted based on its performance. Thisnumber is used to help determine a spread.

Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly," said Howard Martin, a noted expert on how odds are calculated, "there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line."

And, that's how the sportsbook makes its money. If things break equally, it can use the losing bets to pay off the winning bets and simply keep the 10% they made off the vig. Of course the sportsbooks would like to see more losers than winners, but that�s why the vig is built in.


This is a good reference article. Charlie, I don't know which part you were refering to, but as I read this article the facts are the number one factor in handicapping, then perception afte that. The oddsmakers know the gambling public is more infromed now than ever & better play it close to the vest in regards to making odds or they will get taken to the cleaners.

IMO UL will be the power team in the SBC this season. Florida is now a week to middle of the road SEC team. By Nov. 10th the oddsmakers will have recognized this & will have to take this into account & handicap this game very evenly. If they don't, they risk the chance of a gambling syndicate coming into the various clubs & on line & laying huge wagers on the underdog the night before the game. If one can get a three TD spread on this game, they better get it now, because there won't be a double digit spread in November IMO.

[CharlieK]

To my understanding the books will set the initial line as described in the linked article. Then the line will move based upon how the public actually starts betting the game. So, for fun, let's assume UL has only one loss heading into the UF game, and the gators have a couple of losses to SEC teams. I would think the books would favor Florida by let's say 14. That's alot but a hell of an improvement over the 30 or so they would have been favored in the past. Since the general public will probably bet Florida, both from history and the fact there are likes far more national Florida fans than Cajun fans at this point. That would move the line higher lets say to 17. If UL is as good as you think (and I hope they are!) then you should be happy the books and then the public underrate UL. Bet them heavy and you may get to take another December cruise!

Now an undefeated UL against say a 500 UF team.....that might get you an even line, considering we would have had to beat a top 20 team to get there.

My favorite part is we can even have this discussion......how far we have come in a short time!

[Bandwagon King]

My favorite part is we can even have this discussion......how far we have come in a short time!

Yeh. That's pretty cool. Taking your scenario of Florida having a pretty good record into account with only one or two SEC losses, I would agree with your assessment. I was watching a prognostication sesion W/ Herbstreit & Desmond Howard this morning though & the question of whether Florida would go closer to 7 wins or ten wins came up. Both of them agreed that Florida would be closer to a 7 win season than a ten win season. The prevailing thought process out ther is that Florida is not a physical disciplined team anymore. They are ripe to be plucked by a hungry up & comer like UL.

[CrappDaddy]

Yeh. That's pretty cool. Taking your scenario of Florida having a pretty good record into account with only one or two SEC losses, I would agree with your assessment. I was watching a prognostication sesion W/ Herbstreit & Desmond Howard this morning though & the question of whether Florida would go closer to 7 wins or ten wins came up. Both of them agreed that Florida would be closer to a 7 win season than a ten win season. The prevailing thought process out ther is that Florida is not a physical disciplined team anymore. They are ripe to be plucked by a hungry up & comer like UL.

Not sure how great Florida will be or not, but you can bet that Muschamp has the talent and the now how to put together a stingy defense. We will play the best D we face all year when we go to Florida, hands down.

[zephyr]

You struck me as being bright enough to recognize the reality of it. No worries.

Same here. I'm a bit disappointed in you

[Just1More]

Same here. I'm a bit disappointed in you

Sorry mom. I'll do better next time.