Cajuns' RPI at selection time ...

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns' RPI ranking at selection time is discussed below in the context of last week's rankings.

Overall RPI Rankings from 5/7
#1 California
#2 Arizona State
#3 Alabama
#4 Oklahoma
#5 Texas
#6 Tennessee
#7 Florida
#8 Oregon
#9 Texas A&M
#10 Arizona

I do not expect that the Cajuns can catch anyone in the RPI Top 10.

#11 UCLA

This one is too close to call. UCLA will finish ahead of the Cajuns if Georgia Tech does not move into the Base RPI 25 (next bonus tier). But if the Yellow Jackets do move into this bonus tier, whether the Cajuns finish ahead of UCLA or not will depend on what happens with #20 Syracuse, #21 Stanford, and #25 Oregon State. If any of those teams drop out of the Base RPI Top 25 and GT squeaks in, I think the Cajuns pass UCLA to grab the #12 spot.

#12 Louisville

Louisville will finish ahead of the Cajuns.

#13 Louisiana
#14 Missouri

Missouri is going to be very close, unless Georgia Tech (#27 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra (#51 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 50. Even if the Cajuns do not earn any more RPI bonus points this week, I think they will just barely hold off Missouri. Michigan should remain in the Base RPI Top 25 (#24 last week) as they swept a good Purdue team. I am also expecting #47 Houston to remain in the Top 50 as they played two tough games this week (UCF and Tulsa), winning one of them ... thus I do not expect the Cajuns to lose any RPI bonus points from last week.

#15 Georgia

The Cajuns will finish ahead of Georgia

#16 Florida State
#17 Washington
#18 Stanford
#19 South Florida
#20 Hawaii

The Cajuns need not be concerned with anyone outside of the RPI Top 16 catching them.

So, in summary ... I think it will be no lower than #13 (just holding off Missouri) with a possibility of #12.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

So Brian if we would have beaten USA would we have had a chance at the #11 spot ahead of Louisville or not?

[GoneGolfin]

So Brian if we would have beaten USA would we have had a chance at the #11 spot ahead of Louisville or not?

With Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50, it would have been very close. It all comes down to how the RPI bonuses flesh out for both teams.

A Cajun win over South Alabama would have been a #12 ranking at minimum (easily vaulting past UCLA).

Brian

[CajunEXPRESS]

With Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50, it would have been very close. It all comes down to how the RPI bonuses flesh out for both teams.

A Cajun win over South Alabama would have been a #12 ranking at minimum (easily vaulting past UCLA).

Brian

So the two run error againt the Hoax hurt us the most.

[GoneGolfin]

So the two run error againt the Hoax hurt us the most.

RPI-wise, the losses are equivalent.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns' RPI ranking at selection time is discussed below in the context of last week's rankings.


I do not expect that the Cajuns can catch anyone in the RPI Top 10.


This one is too close to call. UCLA will finish ahead of the Cajuns if Georgia Tech does not move into the Base RPI 25 (next bonus tier). But if the Yellow Jackets do move into this bonus tier, whether the Cajuns finish ahead of UCLA or not will depend on what happens with #20 Syracuse, #21 Stanford, and #25 Oregon State. If any of those teams drop out of the Base RPI Top 25 and GT squeaks in, I think the Cajuns pass UCLA to grab the #12 spot.


Louisville will finish ahead of the Cajuns.


Missouri is going to be very close, unless Georgia Tech (#27 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra (#51 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 50. Even if the Cajuns do not earn any more RPI bonus points this week, I think they will just barely hold off Missouri. Michigan should remain in the Base RPI Top 25 (#24 last week) as they swept a good Purdue team. I am also expecting #47 Houston to remain in the Top 50 as they played two tough games this week (UCF and Tulsa), winning one of them ... thus I do not expect the Cajuns to lose any RPI bonus points from last week.


The Cajuns will finish ahead of Georgia


The Cajuns need not be concerned with anyone outside of the RPI Top 16 catching them.

So, in summary ... I think it will be no lower than #13 (just holding off Missouri) with a possibility of #12.

Brian

I was correct in that the Cajuns finished ahead of Missouri. They also squeezed out UCLA for the #12 spot, as I thought they would. I will have the actual RPI numbers calc'ed shortly.

The Cajuns were in fact able to move ahead of UCLA due to Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50 ... an additional .0039 in bonus.

As far as record vs. RPI Top 25 is concerned, Michigan made it in ... hence the Cajuns were 4-0 vs. the RPI Top 25. I think this gave them the nod over #10 Louisville.

South Alabama finished at #43.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I was correct in that the Cajuns finished ahead of Missouri. They also squeezed out UCLA for the #12 spot, as I thought they would. I will have the actual RPI numbers calc'ed shortly.

The Cajuns were in fact able to move ahead of UCLA due to Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50 ... an additional .0039 in bonus.

As far as record vs. RPI Top 25 is concerned, Michigan made it in ... hence the Cajuns were 4-0 vs. the RPI Top 25. I think this gave them the nod over #10 Louisville.

South Alabama finished at #43.

Brian

Oh ... the Selection Show was wrong last night. Texas had the #3 NC RPI. Alabama was #2. Guess who was #1?

Brian

[CajunAmos]

Brian

Based on your calculations, and going under the premise that RPI was the deciding factor in the top 16 seeds, how do we finish with the #12 RPI and #1 RPI non conference and we wind up the 14 seed?

[GoneGolfin]

Overall RPI

#1 (N1) California .7372 (22-4, 4-0)
#2 (N2) Alabama .7185 (9-3, 23-2)
#3 (N3) Arizona State .7171 (16-6, 2-0)
#4 (N7) Tennessee .6893 (7-7, 19-2)
#5 (N6) Texas .6890 (9-8, 12-2)
#6 (N4) Oklahoma .6871 (9-7, 13-1)
#7 (N5) Florida .6840 (10-7, 12-4)
#8 (N8) Texas A&M .6770 (9-9, 12-3)
#9 (N11) Oregon .6759 (11-12, 4-2)
#10 (N15) Louisville .6680 (3-1, 9-2)
#11 (N13) Arizona .6624 (11-15, 4-0)
#12 (N14) Louisiana .6598 (4-0, 10-1)
#13 (N12) UCLA .6574 (10-16, 7-1)
#14 (N9) Missouri .6544 (9-8, 10-0)
#15 (N10) Georgia .6446 (6-8, 11-6)
#16 Florida State .6413 (2-6, 7-5)
#17 South Florida .6403 (4-5, 5-2)
#18 (N16) Washington .6364 (7-17, 4-0)
#19 Stanford .6316 (11-13, 1-0)
#20 Hawaii .6276 (3-2, 3-2)
#21 Georgia Tech .6241 (6-6, 8-9)
#22 Syracuse .6224 (3-5, 7-4)
#23 Texas Tech .6217 (5-9, 8-4)
#24 Oregon State .6183 (7-14, 4-2)
#25 Michigan .6160 (1-6, 6-2)

Non-Conference RPI

#1 (N14) Louisiana .6822
#2 (N2) Alabama .6816
#3 (N6) Texas .6743
#4 (N15) Louisville .6661
#5 (N7) Tennessee .6619
#6 (N1) California .6558
#7 (N16) Washington .6514
#8 Hawaii .6510
#9 (N3) Arizona State .6500
#10 South Florida .6488
#11 (N8) Texas A&M .6464
#12 (N5) Florida .6434
#13 (N11) Oregon .6409
#14 (N13) Arizona .6360
#15 (N4) Oklahoma .6354
#16 (N10) Georgia .6284
#17 Florida State .6272
#18 (N12) UCLA .6258
#19 Michigan .6231
#20 Syracuse .6138
#21 Auburn .6118
#22 DePaul .6099
#23 Georgia Tech .6062
#24 (N9) Missouri .6034
#25 Stanford .5957

Brian

[wcd35]

It irks me that despite these 2 categories, we're only a 14 seed. Would've been interesting to see where we could have wound up if we didnt lose to ULM or USA in last couple weeks.

[GoneGolfin]

It irks me that despite these 2 categories, we're only a 14 seed. Would've been interesting to see where we could have wound up if we didnt lose to ULM or USA in last couple weeks.

Are you sure you want to know that?

Brian

[wcd35]

Check my math for me but I'm guessing around #10 RPI just under a 0.6700 RPI (~.6693) going with a very quick and simple calculation.

Bonus for beating USA? I cant keep bonus systems straight.