Louisiana vs. WKU (SBC Conf Game#8)

[wcd35]

Yeah, they need to update the times since those are all listed as eastern. They're 2 hrs behind the standard game times.

[CajunDreDog]

Yeah, they need to update the times since those are all listed as eastern. They're 2 hrs behind the standard game times.

Yes, I was hoping they would.

[CajunAmos]

The hay is in the barn. Win out, and we host or don't. FIU or UNT will make not one lick of difference as to our chance for a host location. If it comes down to that, then it is simply straw dog the committee can use to deny us. Right now I want a regional, but we simply cannot get too ramped up about hosting. Our team has done a great job without hosting. If fact the last time we hosted we were ousted, and LSU decided they would never play us again because we were not nice, nice.

If I understood what Brian (gonegolfin) covered on the show with Scott yesterday afternoon, based on what other teams in our area of the RPI did yesterday, he felt we'd be a top 16 seed even if we lost our next two games. We would still have a marginal shot at a National seed (top 8), but it would take a whole lot of other things going on and for the committee to make us a national seed with a 10/11 RPI. Possible, but not likely).

[Turbine]

I missed where
Brian would be on the radio.

I try to never miss those appearances
.

[CajunEXPRESS]

Hoax give up a two out three run homer in the top of the 7th and lose to Toppers 5-3.

[RaginDave]

Good for us on a number of fronts. One I hate ULM and everything to do with them. Secondly they are the worst RPI team left in the tourny, meaning now the Cajuns do not have to play a team with a losing record or a team with an RPI outside of 100. We need FIU to defeat UNT and get a little help and possibly slip into the top 50 RPI (currently 58), that way we could possibly play two teams with RPI within the top 50 to finish the season.

Here is what the RPI looked like going into the SBC Tourny:

13 UL 2-0 in the tourny
50 USA 2-0 in the tourny
58 FIU 1-1 in the tourny
81 UNT 0-1 in the tourny
79 WKU 2-1 in the tourny
59 Troy eliminated
130 ULM eliminated
153 FAU eliminated

Either FIU or UNT will be eliminated next.

Geaux Cajuns!!!!!

PS: Is anyone else impressed with what USA has done in such a short time in regards to softball. They are a top 50 RPI team and a team that I think the Cajuns are going to have to worry about in the future.

[GoneGolfin]

You said that FIU was only marginally better in RPI, going into the tourny, FIU has an RPI of 58, while UNT has an RPI of 81. With FIU defeating Troy and potentially UNT next, I would prefer to face FIU with the higher RPI, while I realize that unless we get bonus points in the top 50 it doesn't really matter, I would still prefer to face the better team in FIU.

wcd35 was referring to "RPI considerations" ... meaning, what will be the impact on UL's RPI by playing a given team? As I have often repeated, it is erroneous to determine this simply by looking at RPI rank.

For example, it would be better (RPI-wise) for UL to face #79 Western Kentucky than #58 FIU. This is due to the weight of the OWP contribution vs. the OOWP contribution.

In the case of #58 FIU and #81 North Texas, it is very close. FIU has a very slight edge ... but nothing that is going to make much of a difference.

The best opponent the Cajuns can play (RPI-wise) in an upcoming game is South Alabama ... other than that, Western Kentucky.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Also, they have a slightly better WP

FIU has a better winning percentage ... but they have a lower OWP contribution to UL than that of North Texas. It is not enough to simply look at overall WP when determining the OWP contribution for a team (unless the teams have not yet met in a scheduled game).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

And after all that, my point still remains. FIU is still the better matchup but its not a massive impact either way with one versus the other. Their impact on our RPI isnt as great as the gap between their RPI rankings. Go off their WP, not their RPI ranking for the basic comparison. If by some chance FIU lept into the top 50, then that would be on their side as well.

Close ... but you cannot go off of their WP (as I stated above). You need to look at their OWP contribution (Ex. contribution to UL).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

If I understood what Brian (gonegolfin) covered on the show with Scott yesterday afternoon, based on what other teams in our area of the RPI did yesterday, he felt we'd be a top 16 seed even if we lost our next two games.
We would still have a marginal shot at a National seed (top 8), but it would take a whole lot of other things going on and for the committee to make us a national seed with a 10/11 RPI. Possible, but not likely).

There are three things at play here ... all distinct, but related.

#1 RPI finish ... Concerning your first point, I said that based on what happened yesterday, I felt that the Cajuns were guaranteed a Top 16 RPI finish ... not a #1 seed. Those are two different things.

#2 A #1 seed ... I said that based on my expectation that the Cajuns will finish with a Top 16 RPI ... and the fact that I did not feel there were any good #1 seed candidates beyond the RPI Top 16 (Ex. #17 Washington finished the season losing 16 of their last 20, #18 Stanford lost to Utah yesterday and is 5-5 over their last 10 games ... and 9-13 in conference, #19 South Florida was eliminated in the opening round of the Big East tournament and is 5-5 over their last 10 games ... coupled with the RPI gap between the Cajuns and #17, #18, #19, ...) ... I felt that this qualifies the Cajuns as a #1 seed. But this is obviously a selection committee decision. In the prior discussion Scott had with Stevie, I heard Stevie wonder why the Cajuns were not a #1 seed in 2004 (and that they could do the same thing again) ... but the Cajuns did not have a Top 16 RPI at selection time. They have not had a Top 16 RPI at selection time in at minimum the past ten years.

I do think that #21 Hawaii has an outside shot at a #1 seed (if they can beat BYU a couple of times in the WAC tournament) ... but I do not see it coming at the expense of the Cajuns.

All of that said, do I think the Cajuns will be one of the sixteen #1 seeds? Yes. But while I can say that the Cajuns will finish with a Top 16 RPI (it is simply mathematics) ... I can never guarantee what a selection committee will do.

#3 Will the Cajuns host a regional? This is also a distinct but related topic. #1 and #2 above obviously have a huge impact on whether the Cajuns host. I stated that I had heard from several sources (one being ESPN broadcasts) that all #1 seeds would host this season, provided they met the facilities requirements ... meaning ... the NCAA was not expected to provide any charity regionals to geographic regions not well represented. That is, they were going to assign the privilege of hosting solely on assessed merit, provided the facilities requirements were met. If this is true, then #2 means #3.

Brian