Louisiana vs. WKU (SBC Conf Game#8)

[RaginDave]

Good for us on a number of fronts. One I hate ULM and everything to do with them. Secondly they are the worst RPI team left in the tourny, meaning now the Cajuns do not have to play a team with a losing record or a team with an RPI outside of 100. We need FIU to defeat UNT and get a little help and possibly slip into the top 50 RPI (currently 58), that way we could possibly play two teams with RPI within the top 50 to finish the season.

Here is what the RPI looked like going into the SBC Tourny:

13 UL 2-0 in the tourny
50 USA 2-0 in the tourny
58 FIU 1-1 in the tourny
81 UNT 0-1 in the tourny
79 WKU 2-1 in the tourny
59 Troy eliminated
130 ULM eliminated
153 FAU eliminated

Either FIU or UNT will be eliminated next.

Geaux Cajuns!!!!!

PS: Is anyone else impressed with what USA has done in such a short time in regards to softball. They are a top 50 RPI team and a team that I think the Cajuns are going to have to worry about in the future.

[GoneGolfin]

You said that FIU was only marginally better in RPI, going into the tourny, FIU has an RPI of 58, while UNT has an RPI of 81. With FIU defeating Troy and potentially UNT next, I would prefer to face FIU with the higher RPI, while I realize that unless we get bonus points in the top 50 it doesn't really matter, I would still prefer to face the better team in FIU.

wcd35 was referring to "RPI considerations" ... meaning, what will be the impact on UL's RPI by playing a given team? As I have often repeated, it is erroneous to determine this simply by looking at RPI rank.

For example, it would be better (RPI-wise) for UL to face #79 Western Kentucky than #58 FIU. This is due to the weight of the OWP contribution vs. the OOWP contribution.

In the case of #58 FIU and #81 North Texas, it is very close. FIU has a very slight edge ... but nothing that is going to make much of a difference.

The best opponent the Cajuns can play (RPI-wise) in an upcoming game is South Alabama ... other than that, Western Kentucky.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Also, they have a slightly better WP

FIU has a better winning percentage ... but they have a lower OWP contribution to UL than that of North Texas. It is not enough to simply look at overall WP when determining the OWP contribution for a team (unless the teams have not yet met in a scheduled game).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

And after all that, my point still remains. FIU is still the better matchup but its not a massive impact either way with one versus the other. Their impact on our RPI isnt as great as the gap between their RPI rankings. Go off their WP, not their RPI ranking for the basic comparison. If by some chance FIU lept into the top 50, then that would be on their side as well.

Close ... but you cannot go off of their WP (as I stated above). You need to look at their OWP contribution (Ex. contribution to UL).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

If I understood what Brian (gonegolfin) covered on the show with Scott yesterday afternoon, based on what other teams in our area of the RPI did yesterday, he felt we'd be a top 16 seed even if we lost our next two games.
We would still have a marginal shot at a National seed (top 8), but it would take a whole lot of other things going on and for the committee to make us a national seed with a 10/11 RPI. Possible, but not likely).

There are three things at play here ... all distinct, but related.

#1 RPI finish ... Concerning your first point, I said that based on what happened yesterday, I felt that the Cajuns were guaranteed a Top 16 RPI finish ... not a #1 seed. Those are two different things.

#2 A #1 seed ... I said that based on my expectation that the Cajuns will finish with a Top 16 RPI ... and the fact that I did not feel there were any good #1 seed candidates beyond the RPI Top 16 (Ex. #17 Washington finished the season losing 16 of their last 20, #18 Stanford lost to Utah yesterday and is 5-5 over their last 10 games ... and 9-13 in conference, #19 South Florida was eliminated in the opening round of the Big East tournament and is 5-5 over their last 10 games ... coupled with the RPI gap between the Cajuns and #17, #18, #19, ...) ... I felt that this qualifies the Cajuns as a #1 seed. But this is obviously a selection committee decision. In the prior discussion Scott had with Stevie, I heard Stevie wonder why the Cajuns were not a #1 seed in 2004 (and that they could do the same thing again) ... but the Cajuns did not have a Top 16 RPI at selection time. They have not had a Top 16 RPI at selection time in at minimum the past ten years.

I do think that #21 Hawaii has an outside shot at a #1 seed (if they can beat BYU a couple of times in the WAC tournament) ... but I do not see it coming at the expense of the Cajuns.

All of that said, do I think the Cajuns will be one of the sixteen #1 seeds? Yes. But while I can say that the Cajuns will finish with a Top 16 RPI (it is simply mathematics) ... I can never guarantee what a selection committee will do.

#3 Will the Cajuns host a regional? This is also a distinct but related topic. #1 and #2 above obviously have a huge impact on whether the Cajuns host. I stated that I had heard from several sources (one being ESPN broadcasts) that all #1 seeds would host this season, provided they met the facilities requirements ... meaning ... the NCAA was not expected to provide any charity regionals to geographic regions not well represented. That is, they were going to assign the privilege of hosting solely on assessed merit, provided the facilities requirements were met. If this is true, then #2 means #3.

Brian

[ATXCajun]

UNT 8 FIU 0 final in 5

[CajunAmos]

There are three things at play here ... all distinct, but related.

#1 RPI finish ... Concerning your first point, I said that based on what happened yesterday, I felt that the Cajuns were guaranteed a Top 16 RPI finish ... not a #1 seed. Those are two different things.

#2 A #1 seed ... I said that based on my expectation that the Cajuns will finish with a Top 16 RPI ... and the fact that I did not feel there were any good #1 seed candidates beyond the RPI Top 16 (Ex. #17 Washington finished the season losing 16 of their last 20, #18 Stanford lost to Utah yesterday and is 5-5 over their last 10 games ... and 9-13 in conference, #19 South Florida was eliminated in the opening round of the Big East tournament and is 5-5 over their last 10 games ... coupled with the RPI gap between the Cajuns and #17, #18, #19, ...) ... I felt that this qualifies the Cajuns as a #1 seed. But this is obviously a selection committee decision. In the prior discussion Scott had with Stevie, I heard Stevie wonder why the Cajuns were not a #1 seed in 2004 (and that they could do the same thing again) ... but the Cajuns did not have a Top 16 RPI at selection time. They have not had a Top 16 RPI at selection time in at minimum the past ten years.

I do think that #21 Hawaii has an outside shot at a #1 seed (if they can beat BYU a couple of times in the WAC tournament) ... but I do not see it coming at the expense of the Cajuns.

All of that said, do I think the Cajuns will be one of the sixteen #1 seeds? Yes. But while I can say that the Cajuns will finish with a Top 16 RPI (it is simply mathematics) ... I can never guarantee what a selection committee will do.

#3 Will the Cajuns host a regional? This is also a distinct but related topic. #1 and #2 above obviously have a huge impact on whether the Cajuns host. I stated that I had heard from several sources (one being ESPN broadcasts) that all #1 seeds would host this season, provided they met the facilities requirements ... meaning ... the NCAA was not expected to provide any charity regionals to geographic regions not well represented. That is, they were going to assign the privilege of hosting solely on assessed merit, provided the facilities requirements were met. If this is true, then #2 means #3.

Brian

Seems like we've gotten #2 without getting #3 a few times in the past..........

[J-Town Cajun]

What is the most recent estimation for start time for the Cajuns game?

[ATXCajun]

The last game wrapped up around 4cdt. That would put USA vs WKU starting around 430. UL vs UNT probably at 7:00, but I plan to start checking in around 6:30 to see whats going on. Tired WKU pitching vs USA probably means a 5-inning game.

[cajunfan79]

I am assuming game will be on 1420am?

[wcd35]

Close ... but you cannot go off of their WP (as I stated above). You need to look at their OWP contribution (Ex. contribution to UL).

Brian

What games get removed from an opponents WP to give the actual OWP contribution? (If my thought process is correct in this and certain games dont count)

I am assuming game will be on 1420am?

Yes

[GoneGolfin]

Seems like we've gotten #2 without getting #3 a few times in the past..........

Certainly not since the field expanded to 64 teams and 16 regionals.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

What games get removed from an opponents WP to give the actual OWP contribution? (If my thought process is correct in this and certain games dont count)

When determining the OWP contribution of Team A to Team B, you must exclude all games played between Team A and Team B.

When determining the OOWP contribution of Team A to Team B, you simply take the OWP of Team A. The OWP of Team A will already exclude all games between Team A and all of Team A's opponents.

Ex.
Entering today, North Texas had a winning percentage (WP of .5189). But they had a .5500 OWP contribution to UL because UL swept them in three games. Those games are excluded in the OWP calculation for UL.

Entering today, FIU had a WP of .5283. But they had a .5400 OWP contribution to UL because UL beat them 2/3.

Brian

[CajunAmos]

Certainly not since the field expanded to 64 teams and 16 regionals.

Brian

If I'm reading the tourney bracket, its double elimination up until the championship game on Saturday, which will be winner take all. Correct?

[GoneGolfin]

If I'm reading the tourney bracket, its double elimination up until the championship game on Saturday, which will be winner take all. Correct?

Correct.

Brian