Softball RPI (5/7)

[CajunRed]

Regardless of which precise RPI spot the Cajuns finish in, it is very clear that Mike's change in his approach to scheduling has paid off big time.

[J-Town Cajun]

Excellent breakdown Brian. It looks like a lock now for top 16 and I will say a lock now for a host regional especially with a win today.
In order of most important things we are wanting to happen today.

1. a win today against So Al. Good chance.
2. Michigan continues to win and move into the top 25 RPI. Good chance.
3. Georgia Tech remain in top 25. Very likely.
4. So Al remains in top 50. Almost certian.
5. Louisville loses to Notre Dame. Fair chance.
6. UCLA loses to Oregon. Fair chance.
7. Oregon loses to UCLA. Fair chance.
8. Arizona loses to Oregon St. Small chance.
9. Missouri loses to Okla St. Fair chance.

Arizona I would guess would likely still stay ahead of Cajuns in RPI even losing 2/3. One win which they already against Oregon St. will give them another top 25 win RPI bonus. The reason I chose to say a UCLA loss is more important than an Oregon loss is I think there is a really good chance we pass up UCLA in RPI where we can't catch Oregon. Even come selection time the committee may not give the PAC 12 three national seeds just Cal and Ariz St.

I am on record that 1-6 in RPI are set for national seeds are set but not in order (Cal, Ariz St., Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, and Tennesse). That gives Pac 12, SEC, and Big 12 each 2 national seeds. The committee may not want to give out 3 national seeds to one conference and this would really help the chances of Louisville and UL getting a national seed. If this is the case we win today and we get a national seed. If the committee does give out 3 national seeds to one conference then there is just one spot open to another conference and that will go to either Louisiville or UL. So we should really look to pull for a Louisville loss and a UL win today. If the committe gives 3 national seeds to 2 different conferences then we are screwed with no shot. The other teams from the big 3 conferences that have a chance of a national seed are of course Florida, Oregon, Tex A&M,. Loses by these teams will help us also.

[moorecajun]

Regardless of which precise RPI spot the Cajuns finish in, it is very clear that Mike's change in his approach to scheduling has paid off big time.

I said it last year when Brian did all the baseball RPI work, that he should be a paid consultant for UL baseball ... now add softball.

Brian, how are you at developing Master Plans?

Great job again, by the way!

[J-Town Cajun]

This is just for fun and I am bored but here are my predictions for host regionals and top 16 seeds with a little luck falling to Louisville and UL to become national seeds because the selection committee decides not to give any one conference 3 national seeds. Here I go: Team (RPI, Poll rank by NFCA) as of this past week. I also gave consideration that no #1 seeds from the same conference will meet each other in the Super Regionals!

1. Cal (1,1)
2. Alabama (3,3)
3. Arizona St. (2,2)
4. Oklahoma (4,4)
5. Tennessee (6,5)
6. Texas (5,8)
7. Louisville (12,9)
8. Louisiana (13,6)
9. Florida (7,7)
10. Oregon (8,13)
11. Arizona (10,17)
12. Tex A&M (9,16)
13. UCLA (11,14)
14. Georgia (15,11)
15. Mizzori (14,10)
16. Florida St. 16,20)

I think there is a pretty decent shot Louisville or UL will get a national seed at the #8 spot and Florida will get the #7 national seed. In this case I would not be surprised if UL and Louisville will be paired up in the Super Regional as the #8 and #9 national seeds. I think Louisville losing is critical today!!!. So in reality if UL does not get a top 8 national seed my guess they could be seeded anywhere between #9-15 and paired up against teams like Louisville, Florida, Oregon, Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, or Alabama in the Super Regionals.

[GoneGolfin]

Excellent breakdown Brian. It looks like a lock now for top 16 and I will say a lock now for a host regional especially with a win today.
In order of most important things we are wanting to happen today.

1. a win today against So Al. Good chance.
2. Michigan continues to win and move into the top 25 RPI. Good chance.
3. Georgia Tech remain in top 25. Very likely.

I also think that Georgia Tech winning the ACC Tournament today helps provide more legitimacy to the Cajuns' schedule and accomplishments ... and is thus important.

Arizona I would guess would likely still stay ahead of Cajuns in RPI even losing 2/3.

No, not necessarily. It will be close and could very well come down to how the opponents of both Arizona and UL finish today and tomorrow.

One win which they already against Oregon St. will give them another top 25 win RPI bonus.

Yes, I accounted for that (.0026 bonus with single win) ... as I did with UCLA splitting with Oregon thus far (.0026) ... and Missouri potentially sweeping Oklahoma State (.0039 potential bonus).

The reason I chose to say a UCLA loss is more important than an Oregon loss is I think there is a really good chance we pass up UCLA in RPI where we can't catch Oregon. Even come selection time the committee may not give the PAC 12 three national seeds just Cal and Ariz St.

This is a more difficult decision. UCLA will remain ahead of the Cajuns with another win over Oregon. But that win would also lessen Oregon's chances at a national seed ... especially given that they would be 10-13 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 14-15 vs. the RPI Top 50 (4-2 vs. 26->50). UCLA would be 11-14 vs. the Top 25 and 17-16 vs. the Top 50. It is difficult to see UCLA as a national seed (#18 NC RPI, 7-7 on road, records vs. Top 25, etc.). But UCLA/Oregon may be the beneficiary of playing in the #1 RPI conference.

It is hard to imagine Tennessee not receiving a national seed, but certainly possible. What happens if Florida defeats Alabama today (which should be added to your list) ... I think it may hurt any chance the Cajuns have at a national seed. That said, I think Florida has probably already clinched a national seed. I think they get the nod before Tennessee (especially as they won 3/4 from the Vols, 3 being on the road and 1 neutral ... and eliminated them from the SEC Tournament). Tennessee could possibly fall a spot or two in the RPI (potentially being passed by Florida and possibly Oregon if they beat UCLA today). But they also have a national seed resume ... much better than Oregon in my opinion.

Can you imagine giving the #3 RPI conference three national seeds (Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee) while giving the #1 Pac-12 only two (California, Arizona State)? It could happen. But I think it will be a hard fought decision either way.

I am on record that 1-6 in RPI are set for national seeds are set but not in order (Cal, Ariz St., Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, and Tennesse).

I agree with your Top 5 ... even though I feel Texas is vastly overrated and a huge beneficiary of the biased RPI system. If the Cajuns are not a national seed, Texas is the one team that I would love to have as an SR pairing ... over every other national seed plus a handful of non-national seeds. I would rather face Texas than Missouri, UCLA, Louisville, or Georgia.

Tennessee is not a lock. I feel Florida is in before them due to the reasons I elicited above. But all three could certainly be national seeds ... and are more likely to be than not.

That gives Pac 12, SEC, and Big 12 each 2 national seeds. The committee may not want to give out 3 national seeds to one conference and this would really help the chances of Louisville and UL getting a national seed.

The committee will not hesitate to award three national seeds to a conference if they feel the resumes warrant such action. They often award three national seeds to a single conference. Three national seeds were awarded to both the Pac-12 and the SEC in 2009 and 2011.

National Seeds by Conference ...
2011: Pac-12 (3), SEC (3), Big XII (2) [Pac-12 #1, Big XII #2, SEC, #3]
2010: SEC (3), Pac-12 (2), Big XII (1), ACC (1), Big Ten (1) [Pac-12 #1, SEC #2, Big XII #3, ACC #4, CUSA #5, Big Ten #6]
2009: Pac-12 (3), SEC (3), Big XII (1), Big Ten (1) [Pac-12 #1, SEC #2, ACC #3, Big XII #4, Big Ten #5]

If this is the case we win today and we get a national seed. If the committee does give out 3 national seeds to one conference then there is just one spot open to another conference and that will go to either Louisiville or UL. So we should really look to pull for a Louisville loss and a UL win today.

Evaluating all of the criteria, I have a hard time imagining the selection committee granting a national seed to Louisiana over Louisville if Louisville wins today.

Some comparisons in that scenario ...
RPI comparison: Louisville by one to a few spots
Non-Conference RPI: Louisiana #2, Louisville #4
Conference RPI: Louisville #5, Louisiana #7
Road record: (Draw) Louisiana 12-2, Louisville 14-3
Last 10 games: (Draw) Louisiana 9-1, Louisville 9-1
Record vs. RPI Top 25: Louisiana 3-0 (hopefully), Louisville 2-1 (maybe better) (slight edge to Louisiana)
Record vs. RPI 26->50: Louisiana 11-0, Louisville (10-2) (edge to Louisiana)
Record vs. RPI 51->100: Louisville 17-0, Louisiana 17-2 (edge to Louisville)
Average RPI Win: Louisiana 97, Louisville 100 (slight edge to Louisiana now, but would go to Louisville after this weekend)
Average RPI Loss: Louisville 21, Louisiana 82
Head to Head: N/A
Record vs. Common Opponents: Louisville 11-0, Louisiana 14-1 (Slight edge to Louisville)
Significant Wins: Louisville ((2) vs. #19 South Florida), Louisiana (vs. #2 Arizona State, (2) vs. #25 Georgia Tech)
Significant Losses: Louisville (none), Louisiana (vs. #130 ULM)

I think it would come down to RPI rank.

Where the Cajuns could get some additional important help is from Georgia Tech and Michigan. That could possibly sway things.

If the committe gives 3 national seeds to 2 different conferences then we are screwed with no shot. The other teams from the big 3 conferences that have a chance of a national seed are of course Florida, Oregon, Tex A&M,. Loses by these teams will help us also.

I do not see Texas A&M as having a national seed resume. (16) losses and a 9-9 record vs. the RPI Top 25. They only have a #9 RPI rank due to the ridiculous RPI system.

I explained above why I do not think Oregon is a national seed, but I fear the committee will give weight to the Pac-12 being the #1 conference. They could even surprise and award it to UCLA (after beating Oregon 2/3). I do not think it would be warranted for reasons provided earlier, but it could happen.

Brian

[Boomer]

Well Scott farmer owes us something after the cusa disaster........so we need this big time

[J-Town Cajun]

Brian I agree with you on Louisville as if both teams win today I think they may get the edge but it is close. I know the polls don't play into the selection committe decisions but we all know these guys look at them every week and they have an opinion also on who is the better team so this may swing their opinion back our way. Who knows.

I did not realize Florida has owned Tennessee this year and may they get the natioanal seed before Tennessee does. I agree if Florida wins the SEC tournament they will most likely get a national seed. Geaux Tide!!!

[ulforlife]

Brian I agree with you on Louisville as if both teams win today I think they may get the edge but it is close. I know the polls don't play into the selection committe decisions but we all know these guys look at them every week and they have an opinion also on who is the better team so this may swing their opinion back our way. Who knows.

I did not realize Florida has owned Tennessee this year and may they get the natioanal seed before Tennessee does. I agree if Florida wins the SEC tournament they will most likely get a national seed. Geaux Tide!!!

Alabama run ruled Florida 10-1 in 5 innings

[CajunRed]

Alabama run ruled Florida 10-1 in 5 innings

Nice! (although I hate both schools)

[GoneGolfin]

Brian I agree with you on Louisville as if both teams win today I think they may get the edge but it is close. I know the polls don't play into the selection committe decisions but we all know these guys look at them every week and they have an opinion also on who is the better team so this may swing their opinion back our way. Who knows.

I did not realize Florida has owned Tennessee this year and may they get the natioanal seed before Tennessee does. I agree if Florida wins the SEC tournament they will most likely get a national seed. Geaux Tide!!!

During the Alabama/Florida game this afternoon, the broadcast crew was touting the selection show and came up with their own "Top Seed Predictions". They had the following ...

#1 California
#2 Arizona State
#3 Alabama
#4 Oklahoma
#5 Florida
#6 Texas
#7 Tennessee
#8 Oregon
#9 Texas A&M
#10 UCLA
#11 Missouri
#12 Louisiana
#13 Arizona
#14 Louisville
#15 Georgia
#16 Florida State

Of course, you should take this with a grain of salt. Mendoza was in the booth and is obviously quite Pac-12 biased. She was expressing the opinion that Washington should be in there at #16 because Florida State got blasted in the ACC Tournament. Someone should let her know that the Huskies have been downright awful down the stretch, losing 16 of their last 20 and getting blown out in many games.

It was not clear if the broadcast crew (of three) came up with the seedings and Mendoza was expressing her disapproval of the #16 spot ... or some other folks at ESPN put this together.

Brian

[ulforlife]

Arizona has split two games with #23 Oregon State and has one remaining. There is a chance that the Cajuns can pass Arizona with a win tomorrow and an Arizona loss to Oregon State.
Brian

Arizona trailing OSU 1-0 T6th

UCLA has split two games with #8 Oregon and has one remaining. The Bruins have extended their lead over the Cajuns. But there is a chance that the Cajuns pass UCLA if the Cajuns win tomorrow and UCLA loses the final game to Oregon.
Brian

UCLA trailing Oregon 8-2 T6th


Pretty interesting that a number of conference tournament champions or teams in the finals have suffered losses to the Cajuns this season:

Boston (in American East championship game)
Ga Tech (in ACC championship game)
Hofstra (won Colonial championship)
Tulsa (won CUSA championship)
Michigan (won outright Big Ten championship)

[GoneGolfin]

Key games today ...

#27 Michigan (#24 BRPI) sweeps a doubleheader from #51 Purdue (#50 BRPI) 8-0 and 8-5.
#57 Northwestern (BRPI #67) sweeps the three-game series vs. #46 Illinois (BRPI #54) with a 10-2 win today.
#47 Boston (BRPI #43) defeats #91 Stony Brook 7-3.
#89 Ohio State defeats #100 Penn State today 4-1 to take 2/3 in the series.
#33 Tulsa (BRPI #31) defeats #60 Marshall to win the CUSA Tournament.
#14 Missouri defeats #34 Oklahoma State 5-3. Missouri takes first two games of series.
--
#2 Arizona State 5 #1 California 0 Final (Cal wins series 2-1).
#23 Oregon State (BRPI #25) 1 #10 Arizona 3 Final (Arizona wins series 2-1).
#11 UCLA 2 #8 Oregon 8 Final (Oregon wins series 2-1).
#36 BYU 3 #63 Fresno State (BRPI #64) 0 T4th
#31 Virginia Tech (BRPI #30) 1 #25 Georgia Tech 2 B4th


Brian