Softball RPI (5/7)

[GoneGolfin]

Georgia Tech leads Florida State 3-0 T2nd (DirecTV channels), one out, runner on 2nd base.

Brian

Georgia Tech bludgeons Florida State 9-1 to eliminate FSU from the ACC Tournament. Add #16 Florida State to the list of teams that cannot catch the Cajuns in the RPI rankings.

This will be a nice RPI bonus for Georgia Tech, keeping them in the Adjusted RPI Top 25 (keeping our record vs. the RPI Top 25 ay 3-0). Hopefully Michigan can move up from #27. It will also solidify Georgia Tech in the Base RPI Top 25 (currently #25) giving the Cajuns .0052 in RPI bonus points.

Brian

[CajunRed]

I'm ready to get my tickets Monday morning.

[GoneGolfin]

Overall RPI:

WP: .9388
OWP: .5402
OOWP: .5396
--
Base RPI: .6397 (Base RPI Rank #10)
RPI Bonus: .0195
--
Adjusted RPI: .6592 (Adjusted RPI Rank #13)

UL's RPI has dipped a small amount (just .0012) after three games in the Sun Belt Tournament ...

WP: .9423
OWP: .5358
OOWP: .5402
--
Base RPI: .6385
RPI Bonus: .0195
--
Adjusted RPI: .6580

A win tomorrow against South Alabama would bring the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI to .6617 (include extra .0013 RPI bonus). A loss would drop the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI to .6557. Of course, as always, all other things being equal ... as there are other games to be played.

Brian

[Ragingayle]

So even if we don't finish in the top 10 rpi, is there any chance that we get a #8 seed and host both regional and super regional???

[cajundiehard]

Brian,

I just wanted to thank you for posting your thoughts and insight on the RPI and how it and the rest of the softball world relates to the Cajuns and NCAA selection process. Your posts are always very interesting and informative. Thank you!

GEAUX CAJUNS!

[GoneGolfin]

Overall RPI

#1 California .7351
#2 Arizona State .7143
#3 Alabama .7115
#4 Oklahoma .6947
#5 Texas .6887
#6 Tennessee .6879
#7 Florida .6775
#8 Oregon .6752
#9 Texas A&M .6749

The Cajuns cannot catch any of the above teams in the RPI rankings.

#10 Arizona .6634

Arizona has split two games with #23 Oregon State and has one remaining. There is a chance that the Cajuns can pass Arizona with a win tomorrow and an Arizona loss to Oregon State.

#11 UCLA .6605

UCLA has split two games with #8 Oregon and has one remaining. The Bruins have extended their lead over the Cajuns. But there is a chance that the Cajuns pass UCLA if the Cajuns win tomorrow and UCLA loses the final game to Oregon.

#12 Louisville .6594

With wins over #93 Connecticut and #28 DePaul ... and a matchup looming with Notre Dame, Louisville has extended their lead over the Cajuns. The Cajuns have a chance at passing Louisville if the Cajuns win and Louisville loses to Notre Dame tomorrow.

#14 Missouri .6493

Missouri defeated #34 Oklahoma State today and has two games remaining vs. the Cowboys. While Missouri will collect a .0013 bonus for each win over the Cowboys, Oklahoma State has a weak OWP contribution to Missouri (.5319). The Cajuns have a good chance of remaining ahead of Missouri if the Cajuns win tomorrow, even if Missouri sweeps. If Missouri drops a game, the Cajuns have a good chance of remaining ahead of Missouri even if the Cajuns lose tomorrow. But again, the play of other teams and how the bonuses flesh out could change things.

#15 Georgia .6462

Georgia defeated #32 Kentucky and lost to #3 Alabama. While the Bulldogs earned a .0013 RPI Bonus for beating Kentucky, the Wildcats will not help them much in the Base RPI with an OWP contribution of .5094. Unless something crazy happens with the RPI bonuses, Georgia will not catch the Cajuns.

#16 Florida State .6425

The Seminoles beat #96 North Carolina State and lost to #25 Georgia Tech in the single-elimination ACC Tournament. Florida State will finish behind UL.

#17 Washington .6408
#18 Stanford .6405
#19 South Florida .6403
#20 Hawaii .6387

There are no teams outside last week's RPI Top 16 that can catch the Cajuns. There will be a large gap between the Cajuns and these teams. Washington's season ended last weekend. Stanford has split two games with a mediocre #71 Utah team with a .500 record. South Florida lost their only game in the single-elimination Big East tournament (vs. DePaul). Hawaii went 1-2 in the WAC Tournament, defeating #94 San Jose State and losing to #36 BYU and #63 Fresno State.

So, heading into tomorrow, I think that the Cajuns likely finish with an RPI rank no lower than #14 (quite possibly #13) and could possibly finish as high as #10.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

I just wanted to thank you for posting your thoughts and insight on the RPI and how it and the rest of the softball world relates to the Cajuns and NCAA selection process. Your posts are always very interesting and informative. Thank you!

GEAUX CAJUNS!

You are welcome cajundiehard. Thanks.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

So even if we don't finish in the top 10 rpi, is there any chance that we get a #8 seed and host both regional and super regional???

There is a chance the Cajuns are awarded a national seed (Top 8 seed). If the Cajuns could move up to somewhere between #10 and #12 ... I could make a strong case on paper for a #8 seed. But an important part of that case relies on #25 Georgia Tech staying in the RPI Top 25 and #27 Michigan potentially moving into the RPI Top 25. One of the evaluation criteria for a national seed will be performance against the RPI Top 25 (peer group). The Cajuns are currently 3-0 against this group. However, if Georgia Tech falls out, that figure drops to 1-0. If Georgia Tech remains in the Top 25 and Michigan moves in, the Cajuns are a much more impressive 4-0 vs. this group. The Cajuns are also 10-0 (could be 11-0 with a win tomorrow) against teams in the 26->50 tier. We also want to ensure that beating South Alabama does not evict them from the RPI Top 50 (their RPI will actually go up a bit with a loss to the Cajuns, but where they finish will depend on teams around them). I am not concerned about South Alabama falling out of the Base RPI Top 50 (used to compute RPI bonuses).

#8 Oregon is 9-11 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 4-2 vs. teams in the 26-50 tier. They also are not finishing as strong as the Cajuns. Their NC RPI is solid at #10 ... but cannot match the #2 of the Cajuns. They are from the #1 RPI conference and this will carry some weight. The committee will also look at the Average RPI win and loss. The Cajuns are a little down in this category ... #97 and #82 (of course, the sample size for average RPI loss is quite small for the Cajuns). Oregon is #70 and #21 respectively. Head-to-head is used when comparing teams (if applicable), as is record vs. common opponents. For UL and Oregon, there is not much to go on here ... Oregon is 2-1 in these games and UL is 2-0.

I am going to refrain from comparisons to Texas A&M, Arizona, UCLA, and Louisville for now. We should wait and see what happens tomorrow and where the Cajuns look to finish in the RPI rankings.

Brian

[CajunRed]

Regardless of which precise RPI spot the Cajuns finish in, it is very clear that Mike's change in his approach to scheduling has paid off big time.

[J-Town Cajun]

Excellent breakdown Brian. It looks like a lock now for top 16 and I will say a lock now for a host regional especially with a win today.
In order of most important things we are wanting to happen today.

1. a win today against So Al. Good chance.
2. Michigan continues to win and move into the top 25 RPI. Good chance.
3. Georgia Tech remain in top 25. Very likely.
4. So Al remains in top 50. Almost certian.
5. Louisville loses to Notre Dame. Fair chance.
6. UCLA loses to Oregon. Fair chance.
7. Oregon loses to UCLA. Fair chance.
8. Arizona loses to Oregon St. Small chance.
9. Missouri loses to Okla St. Fair chance.

Arizona I would guess would likely still stay ahead of Cajuns in RPI even losing 2/3. One win which they already against Oregon St. will give them another top 25 win RPI bonus. The reason I chose to say a UCLA loss is more important than an Oregon loss is I think there is a really good chance we pass up UCLA in RPI where we can't catch Oregon. Even come selection time the committee may not give the PAC 12 three national seeds just Cal and Ariz St.

I am on record that 1-6 in RPI are set for national seeds are set but not in order (Cal, Ariz St., Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, and Tennesse). That gives Pac 12, SEC, and Big 12 each 2 national seeds. The committee may not want to give out 3 national seeds to one conference and this would really help the chances of Louisville and UL getting a national seed. If this is the case we win today and we get a national seed. If the committee does give out 3 national seeds to one conference then there is just one spot open to another conference and that will go to either Louisiville or UL. So we should really look to pull for a Louisville loss and a UL win today. If the committe gives 3 national seeds to 2 different conferences then we are screwed with no shot. The other teams from the big 3 conferences that have a chance of a national seed are of course Florida, Oregon, Tex A&M,. Loses by these teams will help us also.