Cajun Softball RPI

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns will see a nice increase in OWP this week (from .5323 to .5375), resulting in a modest increase to the Base RPI. However, it looks as if the following are likely possibilities with respect to RPI bonuses this week ...

- Michigan falls out of the Base RPI 25 (Cajuns lose .0013)
- Georgia Tech probably still remains just outside the Base RPI 25 (bonus unchanged)
- Houston probably remains in the Base RPI Top 50, despite going 2-3 on the week (bonus unchanged)
- Northwestern should remain outside the Base RPI Top 50 (still no bonus)
- Mississippi State remains outside the Base RPI Top 25 (bonus unchanged)
- Hofstra remains just inside the Base RPI Top 50 (bonus unchanged)
- Troy falls out of the Base RPI Top 50 (Cajuns lose .0026)
- South Alabama probably remains just outside the Base RPI Top 50, but moves closer (still no bonus)
- Florida International remains outside of the Base RPI Top 50 (still no bonus)
- Kentucky moves into the Base RPI Top 50 (Cajuns add .0013)

It would be quite beneficial to the Cajuns if South Alabama could move into the Base RPI Top 50 (last week #56). Eye-balling it, it looks like they will not quite have enough juice this week ... but the important thing is that they do it by the end of the Sun Belt Tournament. They need to beat Troy next week.

Eye-balling the schools in the vicinity of the Cajuns, it looks like the Cajuns fall to #13 this week as Georgia surpasses them (#16 last week). There is an outside chance that the Cajuns hold off the Bulldogs this week, but Georgia was 3-1 this week ... including two bonus wins against LSU. Georgia also has the schedule to finish ahead of the Cajuns, even if they do not leap the Cajuns this week.

I expect the Cajuns to hold off #13 Washington this week (0-3 vs. Arizona State) as well as #14 Missouri (3-0 vs. Iowa State). I also expect the Cajuns to remain ahead of #15 UCLA (0-3 vs. Cal). But all of these teams are within striking distance of the Cajuns. The Cajuns will remain ahead of #17 Florida State and #18 Hawaii this week.

I expect #9 Arizona (1-2 vs. Oregon), #10 Louisville (1-0 vs. Indiana, 3-0 vs. Georgetown), and #11 Texas A&M (1-0 vs. Baylor, 1-2 vs. Texas) to remain ahead of the Cajuns this week.

The bad news is that Washington, Missouri, and UCLA have the schedule to leapfrog the Cajuns. Washington has three remaining games on the road against Stanford. Missouri has (2) vs. Murray State, (3) at Oregon, and (3) vs. Oklahoma State. UCLA has (3) vs. Arizona and (3) at Oregon. The Cajuns want to see Washington, Missouri, and UCLA finish poorly. Washington has been playing poorly, hopefully it continues in Palo Alto. Fortunately, the Cajuns are enough ahead of #20 Stanford that they should hold off the Cardinal even if they sweep the Huskies.

The good news is that I think the Cajuns have an excellent chance to hold off #17 Florida State, provided the Cajuns keep winning. The Seminoles finish with (2) at North Florida and (3) at Maryland. This would keep the Cajuns inside the RPI Top 16.

Arizona State will take over Alabama this week with the #2 RPI ranking behind Cal.

Brian

[CajunRed]

All those games early in the season that were lost to rain are hurting us now. Damn.

[ulforlife]

All those games early in the season that were lost to rain are hurting us now. Damn.

They would have helped but surely weren't enough to make a big difference, we needed to not play FAU and Middle

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns will see a nice increase in OWP this week (from .5323 to .5375), resulting in a modest increase to the Base RPI. However, it looks as if the following are likely possibilities with respect to RPI bonuses this week ...

- Michigan falls out of the Base RPI 25 (Cajuns lose .0013)
- Georgia Tech probably still remains just outside the Base RPI 25 (bonus unchanged)
- Houston probably remains in the Base RPI Top 50, despite going 2-3 on the week (bonus unchanged)
- Northwestern should remain outside the Base RPI Top 50 (still no bonus)
- Mississippi State remains outside the Base RPI Top 25 (bonus unchanged)
- Hofstra remains just inside the Base RPI Top 50 (bonus unchanged)
- Troy falls out of the Base RPI Top 50 (Cajuns lose .0026)
- South Alabama probably remains just outside the Base RPI Top 50, but moves closer (still no bonus)
- Florida International remains outside of the Base RPI Top 50 (still no bonus)
- Kentucky moves into the Base RPI Top 50 (Cajuns add .0013)

It would be quite beneficial to the Cajuns if South Alabama could move into the Base RPI Top 50 (last week #56). Eye-balling it, it looks like they will not quite have enough juice this week ... but the important thing is that they do it by the end of the Sun Belt Tournament. They need to beat Troy next week.

Eye-balling the schools in the vicinity of the Cajuns, it looks like the Cajuns fall to #13 this week as Georgia surpasses them (#16 last week). There is an outside chance that the Cajuns hold off the Bulldogs this week, but Georgia was 3-1 this week ... including two bonus wins against LSU. Georgia also has the schedule to finish ahead of the Cajuns, even if they do not leap the Cajuns this week.

I expect the Cajuns to hold off #13 Washington this week (0-3 vs. Arizona State) as well as #14 Missouri (3-0 vs. Iowa State). I also expect the Cajuns to remain ahead of #15 UCLA (0-3 vs. Cal). But all of these teams are within striking distance of the Cajuns. The Cajuns will remain ahead of #17 Florida State and #18 Hawaii this week.

I expect #9 Arizona (1-2 vs. Oregon), #10 Louisville (1-0 vs. Indiana, 3-0 vs. Georgetown), and #11 Texas A&M (1-0 vs. Baylor, 1-2 vs. Texas) to remain ahead of the Cajuns this week.

The bad news is that Washington, Missouri, and UCLA have the schedule to leapfrog the Cajuns. Washington has three remaining games on the road against Stanford. Missouri has (2) vs. Murray State, (3) at Oregon, and (3) vs. Oklahoma State. UCLA has (3) vs. Arizona and (3) at Oregon. The Cajuns want to see Washington, Missouri, and UCLA finish poorly. Washington has been playing poorly, hopefully it continues in Palo Alto. Fortunately, the Cajuns are enough ahead of #20 Stanford that they should hold off the Cardinal even if they sweep the Huskies.

The good news is that I think the Cajuns have an excellent chance to hold off #17 Florida State, provided the Cajuns keep winning. The Seminoles finish with (2) at North Florida and (3) at Maryland. This would keep the Cajuns inside the RPI Top 16.

Arizona State will take over Alabama this week with the #2 RPI ranking behind Cal.

Brian

Cajuns do hold off Georgia to remain at #12 for now. UCLA charging hard (#13) despite going 0-3 last week (vs. Cal) (up from #15).

UCLA had their Adjusted RPI move from .6521 to .6545 after getting swept by Cal last week.

Brian

[CajunFan3406]

Cajuns do hold off Georgia to remain at #12 for now. UCLA charging hard (#13) despite going 0-3 last week (vs. Cal) (up from #15).

Brian

Uh oh. Hope CajunExpress doesn't see this. UCLA moves up 2 spots after getting swept? Good job RPI, rewarding the losers.

[GoneGolfin]

Uh oh. Hope CajunExpress doesn't see this. UCLA moves up 2 spots after getting swept? Good job RPI, rewarding the losers.

It is important to look at the movement in RPI, not the movement in the RPI rankings. Your RPI could fall and your rank rise if the teams in front of you fall. That said, UCLA's RPI rose from .6521 to .6545 as I illustrated above.

Washington had a very small drop in RPI, from .6544 to .6528, after getting swept by Arizona State (at home). It just so happens that UCLA (.6545) and Georgia (.6541) are very close and just edged out the Huskies in the rankings. Normally a fall of .0016 would not have resulted in a fall in the rankings.

Brian

[CajunEXPRESS]

No doubt my sixty year old legue could replicat those sweep loses almost without effort.

Yea you just lost 3 in a row, and seven of your last nine, but guess what you just positioned yourself for a regional. Geez, geez.

[GoneGolfin]

No doubt my sixty year old legue could replicat those sweep loses almost without effort.

Yea you just lost 3 in a row, and seven of your last nine, but guess what you just positioned yourself for a regional. Geez, geez.

Don't be so hard on them ... UCLA did manage to get within one game of .500 in the month of April (8 wins 9 losses).

Meanwhile, Washington is a stellar 4-13 since the Cal series that commenced on 3/30.

Brian