Softball RPI 4/16 (Details)

[GoneGolfin]

Adjusted RPI (All Games)

#1 California .7186 (from .7221)
#2 Alabama .7159 (from .7158)
#3 Tennessee .7009 (from .6622)
#4 Arizona State .6932 (from .6962)
#5 Texas .6919 (from .6886)
#6 Florida .6891 (from .6875)
#7 Oklahoma .6822 (from .6736)
#8 Oregon .6777 (from .6701)
#9 Louisiana .6721 (from .6830)
#10 Arizona .6679 (from .6594)
#11 Louisville .6644 (from .6619)
#12 Washington .6634 (from .6629)
#13 Texas A&M .6583 (from .6491)
#14 Hawaii .6582 (from .6633)
#15 UCLA .6573 (from .6334)
#16 Missouri .6542 (from .6549)
#17 Georgia .6440 (from .6508)
#18 Florida State .6436 (from .6519)
#19 South Florida .6370 (from .6410)
#20 LSU .6299 (from .6374)

Tennessee saw a massive jump in their RPI (.6622 to .7009) by beating Radford (.0013 bonus) and collecting three Tier 1 bonuses with the sweep of LSU at home (.0078 bonus) ... The big conference RPI bias in action. Note how the big conference schools continue to move up the RPI, squeezing down the top schools outside the Elite 4 conferences.

As projected this weekend, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Oregon passed the Cajuns with Arizona nearly catching the Cajuns.

Before anyone gripes about the one loss the Cajuns had last week ... the fall in RPI was much more about the schedule than the loss. Had the Cajuns won all six games last week, they would have had an Adjusted RPI of .6784 vs. .6721 ... just barely good enough for a #8 ranking over Oregon with their .6777.

Louisiana RPI Breakdown:
WP: .9500
OWP: .5579
OOWP: .5446
--
Base RPI: .6526
RPI Bonuses: .0195
--
Adjusted RPI: .6721

There is no doubt that the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI of last week (.6830) will be the zenith for the 2012 season.


Non-Conference Adjusted RPI

#1 Alabama .7046 (from .6980)
#2 Texas .6832 (from .6856)
#3 Louisiana .6774 (from .6710)
#4 Hawaii .6701 (from .6737)
#5 California .6684 (from .6715)
#6 Louisville .6643 (from .6657)
#7 Oregon .6616 (from .6578)
#8 Tennessee .6583 (from .6484)
#9 Washington .6575 (from .6549)
#10 Arizona State .6527 (from .6534)
#11 Florida .6456 (from .6536)
#12 Texas A&M .6450 (from .6418)
#13 South Florida .6409 (from .6379)
#14 Oklahoma .6397 (from .6438)
#15 Georgia .6440 (from .6314)
#16 Arizona .6346 (from .6347)

Louisiana Non-Conference RPI Breakdown:
WP: 1.0000
OWP: .5541
OOWP: .5390
--
Base RPI: .6618
RPI Bonuses: .0156
--
Non-Conference Adjusted RPI: .6774

Take note of the bolded teams above and compare their non-conference RPI ranking to their overall RPI ranking ... and tell me playing in an elite conference is not a significant advantage. It will get worse as the season comes to a close.

RPI Bonuses
Total RPI bonus stayed at .0195, but the bonus contributors changed. Troy cost the Cajuns .0026 in bonus by falling to #55. Northwestern also fell out of the Top 50 to #57, costing the Cajuns .0013. Meanwhile, Houston entered the Top 50 at #50 (earning .0026) and Boston re-entered at #41 for an additional .0013.

Florida International is getting close. Continued good play could earn the Cajuns an additional .0026. We want South Alabama, Florida International, and Troy to win as much as possible.

RPI Bonuses:
(Base RPI Rank) Team Bonus

#4 Arizona State .0026
#24 Michigan .0026
#27 Georgia Tech .0026
#30 Mississippi State .0013
#32 Tulsa .0013
#38 Kentucky .0013
#41 Boston .0013
#45 South Alabama .0039
#50 Houston .0026
--
#54 Florida International
#55 Troy
#56 Hofstra
#57 Northwestern
#66 Fresno State
#71 Rutgers
#81 McNeese State
#87 Western Kentucky

Record vs. RPI Top 25/50/100

4-0 vs. RPI Top 25
14-0 vs. RPI Top 50
23-2 vs. RPI Top 100

Georgia Tech sliding into the #25 Adjusted RPI spot bumped the Cajuns record vs. the RPPI Top 25 to 4-0, from 2-0.


Conference Adjusted RPI Rankings

#1 Pac-12
#2 SEC
#3 Big XII
#4 ACC
#5 Big East
#6 Big Ten
#7 Mountain West
#8 Sun Belt
#9 WAC
#10 CUSA

Brian

[CajunRed]

And the "hosting" watch goes on.

[GoneGolfin]

Adjusted RPI (All Games)

#1 California .7186 (from .7221)
#2 Alabama .7159 (from .7158)
#3 Tennessee .7009 (from .6622)
#4 Arizona State .6932 (from .6962)
#5 Texas .6919 (from .6886)
#6 Florida .6891 (from .6875)
#7 Oklahoma .6822 (from .6736)
#8 Oregon .6777 (from .6701)
#9 Louisiana .6721 (from .6830)
#10 Arizona .6679 (from .6594)
#11 Louisville .6644 (from .6619)
#12 Washington .6634 (from .6629)
#13 Texas A&M .6583 (from .6491)
#14 Hawaii .6582 (from .6633)
#15 UCLA .6573 (from .6334)
#16 Missouri .6542 (from .6549)
#17 Georgia .6440 (from .6508)
#18 Florida State .6436 (from .6519)
#19 South Florida .6370 (from .6410)
#20 LSU .6299 (from .6374)

As of today, sweeping Florida Atlantic this weekend would result in the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI dropping from .6721 to .6643 (all other things being equal). As you can see, this would be just good enough for #12 this week. Of course, most if the top big conference schools will continue to see their RPI improve. Thus, .6643 could easily be lower than #12.

The Cajuns need to have their opponents continue to play well.

The other thing that will suck ... the Cajuns will face either Middle Tennessee or Florida Atlantic in the first game of the Sun Belt Tournament.

Brian

[RaginScotsman]

So what are our realistic chances of hosting if we 1). win out 2). lose one 3). more than one? Side note, somehow I feel as if I should be paying for such in depth rpi analysis. Someone needs to pass the non religious alms bowl around.

[RaginScotsman]

Also, there are 16 regional host sights, correct? We've got a lot of possible competing regional teams for these sites. If we are not a number one seed, where would we most likely be placed as a number two if the season were to end today?

[GoneGolfin]

Also, there are 16 regional host sights, correct? We've got a lot of possible competing regional teams for these sites. If we are not a number one seed, where would we most likely be placed as a number two if the season were to end today?

There are (16) regional sites, yes. I still see us a #1 seed.

I addressed potential regionals in our area a couple of weeks ago. These thoughts still hold for the most part.

I still could see the following regional in Lafayette ...

Louisiana
LSU
Baylor/Houston
Jackson State/Mississippi Valley State

I would lean towards Baylor (over Houston) only because they are still in the qualifying range for an at-large bid and they cannot go to Oklahoma, Texas A&M, or Texas (all likely candidates to host at this point).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

So what are our realistic chances of hosting if we 1). win out 2). lose one 3). more than one? Side note, somehow I feel as if I should be paying for such in depth rpi analysis. Someone needs to pass the non religious alms bowl around.

We will need to be a #1 seed to host. See my latest RPI Projection (4/11) here.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

We will need to be a #1 seed to host. See my latest RPI Projection (4/11) here.

Brian

I have read on a national softball board that neither Cal or Washington are able to host? I think I read that their facilities are not up to standard to host a regional.

[LuLu]

I have read on a national softball board that neither Cal or Washington are able to host? I think I read that their facilities are not up to standard to host a regional.

Cal is the only team without the facilities to host. Washington got their stuff together last year and hosted a Regional in 2011.

[GoneGolfin]

Cal is the only team without the facilities to host. Washington got their stuff together last year and hosted a Regional in 2011.

LuLu is correct.

On a related note, I would be surprised if the committee flew three teams into Hawaii for a regional.

Brian

[RaginScotsman]

Thanks for the in depth info, Brian. It would be an absolute shame if the Cajuns did not host if they finished the season relatively close to the record that they have now. From an optimistic point of view, a regional in Lafayette would obviously be our best shot at getting to the WCWS. Not that this team is incapable of getting it done on the road; this team is extra special at home behind our fan support. Thus far, they've given Farmer more of a reason than ever to lobby in our favor.

[Boomer]

Man could you see the Lam packed to the max and one of the best home field advantages in the history of college softball!!!! I mean SRO and the crazies out in force!!! Come on and make this happen!!!!