Nice bounceback win by South Alabama .

[GoneGolfin]

. defeating Florida State 3-1 in Tallahassee . coming off of being shutout by the Cajuns over 24 innings.

Brian

[Turbine]

Good win

[NOCajun]

. defeating Florida State 3-1 in Tallahassee . coming off of being shutout by the Cajuns over 24 innings.

Brian

An extra RPI point or 2??

[tank]

Nicely done.

[GoneGolfin]

An extra RPI point or 2??

It really helps South Alabama. But for the Cajuns' Base RPI value, the only difference between South Alabama beating #15 Florida State and beating #75 USC Upstate is . well . nothing. Actually, South Alabama beating USC Upstate (as opposed to Florida State) would be a bit better for the Cajuns' RPI because it would be a better OOWP contribution. This is why it is best (for you) for your opponents to schedule weak and win. Your opponents scheduling strong hurts in the end because they lose more games and you do not realize the strength of their opponents' schedule in your RPI. FIU is a good example of this. Had the Cajuns swept FIU this week, their RPI would have been stuck in neutral (no gain). This is an example of a team being better than their RPI contribution to their opponents.

When factoring in bonuses (for the Adjusted RPI), the Cajuns get some indirect help (by beating USA Florida State) in that South Alabama would move up the RPI rankings . solidifying the RPI bonus they receive. Sidebar: It is a little better for South Alabama to beat Florida State than USC Upstate (better for the Jags). However, this situation backfired on the Cajuns in 2006 (baseball). South Alabama beat Florida State at the end of the season. Does anyone remember why it was a problem for the Cajuns?

Brian

[ulforlife]

However, this situation backfired on the Cajuns in 2006 (baseball). South Alabama beat Florida State at the end of the season. Does anyone remember why it was a problem for the Cajuns?

Brian

Do we ever

[tank]

Unbelievable formula.RPI sux

[RaginScotsman]

Kentucky beat #11 Georgia last night as well.

[J-Town Cajun]

It really helps South Alabama. But for the Cajuns' Base RPI value, the only difference between South Alabama beating #15 Florida State and beating #75 USC Upstate is . well . nothing. Actually, South Alabama beating USC Upstate (as opposed to Florida State) would be a bit better for the Cajuns' RPI because it would be a better OOWP contribution. This is why it is best (for you) for your opponents to schedule weak and win. Your opponents scheduling strong hurts in the end because they lose more games and you do not realize the strength of their opponents' schedule in your RPI. FIU is a good example of this. Had the Cajuns swept FIU this week, their RPI would have been stuck in neutral (no gain). This is an example of a team being better than their RPI contribution to their opponents.

When factoring in bonuses (for the Adjusted RPI), the Cajuns get some indirect help (by beating USA Florida State) in that South Alabama would move up the RPI rankings . solidifying the RPI bonus they receive. Sidebar: It is a little better for South Alabama to beat Florida State than USC Upstate (better for the Jags). However, this situation backfired on the Cajuns in 2006 (baseball). South Alabama beat Florida State at the end of the season. Does anyone remember why it was a problem for the Cajuns?

Brian

I am taking a guess but maybe with So Al's win over Florida St. it pushed So Al's up in RPI ranking (top 50 or top 25) and since we had a losing recored against them it hurt our record against the top 50 or top 25 which ever it was?

[GoneGolfin]

I am taking a guess but maybe with So Al's win over Florida St. it pushed So Al's up in RPI ranking (top 50 or top 25) and since we had a losing recored against them it hurt our record against the top 50 or top 25 which ever it was?

It does have to do with the effect on RPI ranking.

The Cajuns did not have a losing record against South Alabama that year. The Cajuns split four games against the Jags (three of them being played in Mobile . and one at a neutral site). The Cajuns eliminated South Alabama from the conference tournament. Also . the Cajuns finished second in the Sun Belt behind Troy. South Alabama was third . 2 1/2 games behind the Cajuns.

Some other criteria .

South Alabama was a dismal 2-7 vs. the RPI Top 25. That win against Florida State at the end of the season was that second win vs. the RPI 25. It was a game that Kittrell added late in the season, knowing they were on the bubble.

A quote from a story .
"South Alabama coach Steve Kittrell said the Cardinals are giving the baseball to a player who thrives in such situations.

He said he distinctly remembers when the Jags were on the NCAA tournament bubble and Kittrell was able to add a game at Florida State late in the season, which would aid South Alabama's RPI.

"An hour after we had announced the game, I went to my office and P.J. was there. He told me he wanted the ball," Kittrell recalled. Kittrell named Walters the starter, and the Jags won and the team made it to the NCAAs.""

South Alabama treated that game as a do-or-die game, despite the conference tournament having not yet commenced. P.J. Walters threw the prior Friday night against Arkansas State (regular season series finale) . but came back to throw an incredible number of pitches against Florida State on the following Tuesday. I recall that number being in the 140's, but I could be wrong.

After the win over Florida State, South Alabama was 2-7 vs. the RPI Top 25, 6-12 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 17-18 vs. the RPI Top 100.

The Cajuns were 2-1 vs. the RPI Top 25, 4-3 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 14-12 vs. the RPI Top 100.

South Alabama was 5-5 in its last ten games. UL was 6-4.

It came down to RPI, as it always does. RPI is the crutch of the selection committee. That win over Florida State pushed their RPI rank up a number of spots, not only because it gave a significant bump to their OWP and OOWP, but also because it gave them a Tier 1 bonus win. Obviously winning the game helped as well (WP), but the win alone could have come against anyone. Meanwhile, recall from the above that Florida State, while contributing to South Alabama's OWP and OOWP, only contributed to UL's OOWP.

This enabled South Alabama to finish with an Adjusted RPI of 38 . and lengthened the distance between themselves and the Cajuns, whom at 55 were also being considered at the very end. But 17 spots was just too much for the committee to swallow. Also undoubtedly a consideration was the non-conference RPI . South Alabama used that win to vault to #56 (rather mediocre). But the Cajuns had a less than stellar 112 rank in non-conference RPI. Still, had the Overall RPI differential been within about seven spots, I think the decision by the selection committee might have been different.

Brian

[RaginScotsman]

Kentucky beats #10 Georgia again. How beneficial are those two wins for us?

[GoneGolfin]

Kentucky beats #10 Georgia again. How beneficial are those two wins for us?

Any win by Kentucky (or our other opponents) helps our OWP. It does not matter whom it comes against, a win is a win and counts the same (w/ respect to OWP). Kentucky beating Georgia helps our OOWP (because it helps Kentucky's OWP), as Georgia has a solid record. But OOWP is only 25% of the formula. Unfortunately, Georgia's solid OWP does not get reflected in our RPI . but it does get reflected in Kentucky's OOWP. This is because the RPI does not go deep enough (no such things as OOOWP in the RPI).

Where it probably benefits us most (Kentucky beating Georgia instead of a much lower RPI team) is that it will solidify Kentucky's position in the Base RPI Top 50 and the Adjusted RPI Top 50 (Kentucky entered the week with a Base RPI rank of 50) . and therefore our bonus for the win against the Wildcats (calculated against the Base RPI Top 50) . and our record vs. the RPI Top 50 (Adjusted RPI is used here) is more secure.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Kentucky beats #10 Georgia again. How beneficial are those two wins for us?

I meant to add . Kentucky tossed a no-hitter at the Dawgs.

Brian

[CajunEXPRESS]

Brian I am wondering? LSU loses their series to Tennesee. Is there an advantage to UL if they get a win, or get swept. Tennessee looks to have a favorable schedule ahead and will pass us in the RPI. Is there any case where they don't?

[GoneGolfin]

Brian I am wondering? LSU loses their series to Tennesee. Is there an advantage to UL if they get a win, or get swept. Tennessee looks to have a favorable schedule ahead and will pass us in the RPI. Is there any case where they don't?

Swept.

Tennessee has already passed us in the RPI. And even though they do not have a RPI favorable schedule down the stretch (they have played all of their tough SEC games after today, sans the SEC Tournament), I do not see the Cajuns having a chance at catching Tennessee short of a substantial collapse. Note that Tennessee is already 3-0 this week with three solid RPI bonus wins . over a good Radford team in addition to the two over LSU.

I pull for the teams ahead of the Cajuns that the Cajuns will not be able to catch. We want to minimize the number of teams that will use their conference schedule advantage in catching the Cajuns in the RPI.

The Cajuns have received substantial help from their opponents this week in boosting their OWP. This is despite Cajun opponents having played some difficult opponents. If you factor out all of the Cajuns' games this week, the Cajuns' OWP has risen from .5687 to .5752! When you add in the FIU series, the OWP drops to .5724. Finally, adding three Middle Tennessee games drops the Cajuns' OWP to .5559! If not for the play of our opponents this week, that is nearly an entire .0100 drop in RPI.

I am expecting the Cajuns to get a bump in OOWP this week. But unless it is much more than I think it is . just eyeballing it (and do not hold me to it), it looks like Tennessee and Oklahoma will certainly pass the Cajuns this week. Oregon has an excellent chance to pass the Cajuns this week, but have two games remaining vs. Utah. They are 2-1 this week (split with Washington and single win over Utah). There is also a decent chance that Arizona passes the Cajuns this week, though this could come down to their performance against Cal today. Arizona swept Utah in three games and has split with Cal.

Hawaii probably does not catch the Cajuns this week. Washington continues to lose, but their OWP is getting a boost. They split with Oregon and are 0-2 vs. UCLA this weekend. Their RPI could increase (depending on what happens today) . but they probably do not catch the Cajuns yet. Louisville will probably be close, but may fall just a bit short.

On the bright side, Missouri, Florida State, Georgia, and Texas A&M losing this week has helped the Cajuns (ranked 14 -> 17).

I would guess at this hour, the Cajuns come in around #10 this week, with the possibility of being #9 or #11.

Brian