Projecting the RPI (4/11 Update) (Softball)
The below is a followup to the projection from 4/1/12. Our OWP and RPI projection from the last report has improved a bit, due to the performance of our opponents. But things are mostly the same.
--
It is interesting to think about where the Cajuns' Softball RPI and RPI rank might be, depending on how they finish the season. There are many variables at play and you must choose which ones to hold constant in order to obtain a reasonable gauge. The following represents one approach, with assumptions documented. Once an Adjusted RPI figure is determined, you can then compare against the current Adjusted RPIs as well as last year's Adjusted RPIs at selection time to obtain an idea on final ranking.
Assumptions:
I am starting with the Cajuns' WP (.9459) and OWP (.5673) through the Wednesday 4/11/12 results and the OOWP (.5460) from (4/8). The Cajuns' current Adjusted RPI is .6762, down from .6830 on 4/8.
I do not make any assumptions with respect to how non-conference Cajun opponents will play the remainder of their schedule. IOW, I am assuming the same individual OWPs from each team through NCAA selection time.
I am holding the OOWP constant at .5460. I do expect that our OOWP will increase a bit, so that will help the Cajuns some down the stretch.
All remaining games on the schedule are played.
For conference opponents, we know ... 1) How they will perform in games vs. the Cajuns as we are projecting those ... thus we include those results in the projections ... and 2) We know that outside of the games vs. the Cajuns, the other conference members will play .500 ball in aggregate against each other. Thus, I attempt to allocate these wins/losses as evenly as possible among the teams. How these games actually transpire in the end does matter (because percentages are calculated for each team ... not in the aggregate), but the difference from the projection will be very small if any.
I do not project any of the remaining non-conference games for the conference members. Keep in mind that these games will have a significant impact on the Cajuns' RPI ... so we want all fellow conference members to win their non-conference games (there are some tough ones remaining) ... as we do for all of our opponents.
I assume the RPI bonuses for the Cajuns are unchanged from this point forward ... .0195 overall and .0130 for non-conference. These can and will change. At present we have several teams straddling the bonus tiers in both directions (teams about to fall out of a tier, losing bonus points for the Cajuns ... along with teams about to enter into a tier, gaining bonus points for the Cajuns). I reviewed these in a prior post this week.
Projection:
The Cajuns have one remaining non-conference game, (4/25) vs. McNeese State. For projection purposes I am tagging this as a win. This leaves four new (schools currently not participating in the Cajuns' OWP) schools, all conference games. I list all of the remaining games below along with the contributing OWP to the Cajuns' schedule.
Middle Tennessee (.3529) - 3 games
Florida Atlantic (.3396) - 3 games
McNeese State (.7273) - 1 game
Western Kentucky (.6125) - 3 games
Louisiana-Monroe (.4848) - 3 games
---
Aggregate .4690 remaining OWP
That OWP is going to hurt. Obviously, it would be a very good thing if the Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic series were rained out. :-)
As I wrote in another thread, even in the event of a Cajun sweep of Middle Tennessee this weekend, the Cajuns' RPI will take a non-trivial hit from where it is now. All other things being equal, the Cajuns Adjusted RPI would be sitting at .6691 ... which would have been good for a #10 ranking in last week's NCAA Softball RPI.
We now have everything we need for the various components of the formula.
All of the above (including the assumptions) leaves the Cajuns with a .5380 OWP, down significantly from the current .5673 (and what will be the peak of the season ... .5687 after game results of 4/8). It has improved somewhat from the projected .5332 OWP of 4/1 due to solid play from Cajun opponents in the last couple of weeks. Let's hope that opponent upward trend continues and averages better than .5673 in non-Sun Belt games.
So, we use ...
OWP = .5380
OOWP = .5460
We can then project whatever we want for wins/losses over the remaining conference games.
1) 12-0 -> 48-2 overall record -> WP = .9600
WP = .9600
OWP = .5380
OOWP = .5460
--
Base RPI = .6455
Adjusted RPI = .6650
2) 11-1 -> 47-3 overall record -> WP = .9400
WP = .9400
OWP = .5380
OOWP = .5460
--
Base RPI = .6405
Adjusted RPI = .6600
3) 10-2 -> 46-4 overall record -> WP = .9200
WP = .9200
OWP = .5380
OOWP = .5460
--
Base RPI = .6355
Adjusted RPI = .6550
4) 9-3 -> 45-5 overall record -> WP = .9000
WP = .9000
OWP = .5380
OOWP = .5460
--
Base RPI = .6305
Adjusted RPI = .6500
5) 8-4 -> 44-6 overall record -> WP = .8800
WP = .8800
OWP = .5380
OOWP = .5460
--
Base RPI = .6255
Adjusted RPI = .6450
Obviously each loss costs the Cajuns .0050 in RPI since each loss lowers their WP by exactly .02.
Now you can compare these Adjusted RPIs to 1) the current Adjusted RPIs and 2) the Adjusted RPIs at selection time in 2011 ...
4/8/12 Adjusted RPIs
(Adjusted RPI in parentheses)
#1 California .7221 (from .7176) 3-0 vs. Utah
#2 Alabama .7158 (from .7086) 2-1 vs. LSU
#3 Arizona State .6962 (.6834) 3-0 vs. UCLA
#4 Texas .6886 (from .6879) 1-2 vs. Missouri
#5 Florida .6875 (from .6908) 1-0 vs. Florida State, 3-0 vs. Ole Miss
#6 Louisiana .6830 (from .6689) 3-0 vs. South Alabama
#7 Tennessee .6790 (from .6622) 1-1 vs. Georgia, 3-0 vs. Auburn
#8 Oklahoma .6736 (from .6659) 2-1 vs. Texas Tech
#9 Oregon .6701 (from .6672) 2-1 vs. Stanford
#10 Hawaii .6633 (from .6634) 1-0 vs. Utah, 1-0 vs. Utah Valley, 1-1 vs. BYU
#11 Washington .6629 (from .6638) 1-2 vs. Arizona
#12 Louisville .6619 (from .6656) 1-0 vs.Kentucky, 3-0 vs. Rutgers
#13 Arizona .6594 (from .6395) 2-1 vs. Washington
#14 Missouri .6549 (from .6398) 2-1 vs. Texas
#15 Florida State .6519 (from .6409) 0-1 vs. Florida, 2-1 vs. Virginia Tech
#16 Georgia .6508 (from .6479) 1-1 vs. Tennessee
Thus, the Cajuns winning the remainder of their games (13-0) utilizing the above assumptions results in the Cajuns being slotted in the #10 position (.6650). Finishing 12-1 would result in a #13 ranking. 11-2 would result in a #14 ranking. 10-3 would result in a finish outside of the Top 16.
Another thing to keep in mind, the big conference schools above will have their RPIs increase as they will benefit from the RPI dual bias that the elite conference members enjoy (RPI bonuses and OWP enhancement). So, I expect most of the above RPI values to increase somewhat, making it more difficult for the Cajuns to hold their position.
The elite conferences feast on the RPI during conference play as their RPI is enhanced due to the heavy weighting of the OWP (and SOS) and the bonuses awarded for all wins against the Base RPI Top 25/50 ... including conference games and home games ... not just non-conference road games (as in baseball).
2011 Adjusted RPIs at NCAA Tournament Selection Time
#1 Arizona State (.7080)
#2 Georgia (.7059)
#3 Texas (.7054)
#4 Alabama (.7014)
#5 Missouri (.6978)
#6 Florida (.6962)
#7 California (.6946)
#8 Arizona (.6876)
#9 Oklahoma (.6743)
#10 Michigan (.6673)
#11 Baylor (.6658)
#12 Tennessee (.6601)
#13 Washington (.6563)
#14 Texas A&M (.6482)
#15 Oregon (.6470)
#16 Nebraska (.6407)
Using last year's RPI values at NCAA selection time, the Cajuns finishing 13-0 would land them in the #12 position. 12-1 would net them a #13 ranking. 10-2 would result in a #14 ranking. 9-3 would result in a #15ranking.
Arizona State above had 21 bonus games at selection time in 2011 and Georgia had 24. How many schools outsides of the Pac-12, SEC, Big XII, and Big Ten (four conferences) do you see represented above in the Top 16? How about zero. In fact, 15 of the 16 schools above came from three conferences.
Brian
Quote
Re: Projecting the RPI (4/11 Update) (Softball)
