Cajun Softball OWP (through 4/8)

[ulforlife]

Is it too late for April Fool's?

Brian

That's just rude

[J-Town Cajun]

Is it too late for April Fool's?

Brian

Good one I guess. I was not really believing that they could lose 11 more games and we only have 1 loss and they finish ahead of us. If so I think RPI would just be plain stupid.

[Boomer]

Well I guess for not understanding---the 4/1/12 post mention was a relief-----but what if we lose 4-5 and they only lose 5-6 ----are we OK????

[DieHard1280]

That would be a huge travesty. I don't even want to think about the outcry in Cajunland if that happened.

[jumboragncajun]

This is a quote directly from the mouth of the chairman of selection committee: "If we finish in the top 16 in RPI, we WILL host."
This year <--- (important phrase), the only reason a top 16 RPI team won't host is if they don't submit the bid package to host.

If we don't get the top 8 as Brian projects, it would be better for us for LSU to actually land a top 8 (longshot) and we get paired with them. We would, again, have more fans than them in BR for super....or should they lose, we could host Super.

[ulforlife]

This is a quote directly from the mouth of the chairman of selection committee: "If we finish in the top 16 in RPI, we WILL host."
This year <--- (important phrase), the only reason a top 16 RPI team won't host is if they don't submit the bid package to host.

If we don't get the top 8 as Brian projects, it would be better for us for LSU to actually land a top 8 (longshot) and we get paired with them. We would, again, have more fans than them in BR for super....or should they lose, we could host Super.

The problem at this point is not to get the 15 or 16 seed, then we would get to travel to a Cal or something similar for a super. I would almost rather play at LSU

[GoneGolfin]

Good one I guess. I was not really believing that they could lose 11 more games and we only have 1 loss and they finish ahead of us. If so I think RPI would just be plain stupid.

The RPI is just plain stupid.

But the situation is not as bad as the above (joke). However, last week's projection of .6598 (finishing with one loss) is easily within striking distance of LSU. LSU finishing 9-8 with the right bonus wins would make it interesting. Of course, they will also have the benefit of the SEC Tournament.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Well I guess for not understanding---the 4/1/12 post mention was a relief-----but what if we lose 4-5 and they only lose 5-6 ----are we OK????

See my Projecting the RPI thread from last week.

In this case you cite above, I can practically guarantee you that LSU would finish higher. Losing five would put us in the ballpark of .6398 (this might not be Top 20). LSU is currently at .6374. They would move significantly higher if they lost five or six.

Brian

[CajunEXPRESS]

It cannot happen Brian because we already have a loss. But my question is this, could the, or more to the point would the NCAA have the balls to not have a team with credible wins against the better teams not be a national seed and a perfect record. Just wondering if RPI then becomes their everything. I say this because we often see in basketball mid level teams get screwed by BCS teams who have lower RPI, and they say RPI is not all we look at.

Clearly I am asking a what if question here.

[GoneGolfin]

It cannot happen Brian because we already have a loss. But my question is this, could the, or more to the point would the NCAA have the balls to not have a team with credible wins against the better teams not be a national seed and a perfect record. Just wondering if RPI then becomes their everything. I say this because we often see in basketball mid level teams get screwed by BCS teams who have lower RPI, and they say RPI is not all we look at.

Clearly I am asking a what if question here.

Cajun90 (Brian) and I were talking about this over the weekend. Specifically, we were discussing what the committee would do if the Cajuns were undefeated with an RPI just outside the Top 8 ... and what would happen with a single loss and an RPI of about 10.

The committee typically takes the Top 8 RPI for their national seeds. But not always. For example, it did not happen in 2010. But it is important to understand why they did not.

In 2010, Oklahoma (RPI 7, NC RPI 10, 2nd place Big XII, Big XII Tournament Champion) and LSU (RPI 8, NC RPI 7, 3rd place SEC, SEC Tournament runner-up) were passed over for Georgia (N6 seed, RPI 12, NC RPI 6, 4th place SEC) and Texas (N7 seed, RPI 11, NC RPI 12, Big XII champions).

Texas is easy. They were awarded a national seed (the only one from the Big XII) as they were the champions of the #3 RPI conference. The #2 RPI conference (SEC) already had Alabama N1, Florida N4, and Georgia N6 as national seeds.

LSU and Georgia is a little more difficult. But I think it came down to their performance vs. the RPI Top 25. LSU was 8-13 vs. the Top 25 RPI. Georgia was 9-8. It is a hard sell to award a team a national seed when their RPI rank is just 8 and they were 8-13 vs. their supposed peers (though Arizona was an N8 in 2011 with a 13-15 record vs. the RPI Top 25 ... and had a NC RPI of 4 and RPI of 8). Georgia was far superior using this important measuring stick. Texas was 11-7 vs. the RPI Top 25 and every national seed was over .500 vs. the RPI Top 25. I should mention that LSU won the head-to-head series over Georgia 2-1 in Baton Rouge. But this is not enough to overcome the record vs. RPI Top 25 problem.

Could the Cajuns finish with an RPI rank of 10, 11, 12 and still be a national seed (one loss)? Certainly. I would need to go back in time (before 2010) to see if there is any precedent for a national seed from a non-elite conference (non Top 5) and the context of that selection. But a 49-1 record would be very difficult for the committee to ignore, especially with a Non-Conference RPI in the Top 5. Only playing 2 games vs. the RPI Top 50 would hurt (going 2-0), but nearly every national seed has at least one loss from the 26->50 teams and many have multiple. The Cajuns look quite good there. I would like the Cajuns' chances in this scenario. Not doing so would really make the committee look like a slave to the RPI.

Going 50-0? The committee would look downright dumb for not awarding a national seed.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

Looking on the bright side maybe this win by FIU will boost them into the top 50 RPI and with another win tomorrow by the Cajuns and this may give us 2 more wins over a top 50 RPI team which gives us extra RPI adjusted points. Without the win by FIU maybe they stay out of the top 50 RPI and we get no bonus points. This RPI stuff gets a little crazy when teams straddle top 25 top 50 RPI lines for bonus points.

What you think Gonegolfin?

[GoneGolfin]

Looking on the bright side maybe this win by FIU will boost them into the top 50 RPI and with another win tomorrow by the Cajuns and this may give us 2 more wins over a top 50 RPI team which gives us extra RPI adjusted points. Without the win by FIU maybe they stay out of the top 50 RPI and we get no bonus points. This RPI stuff gets a little crazy when teams straddle top 25 top 50 RPI lines for bonus points.

What you think Gonegolfin?

If they are able to make it into the Base RPI Top 50 (at selection time), two wins by the Cajuns would give them .0026 in bonus ... partially offsetting the .0069 the loss cost the Cajuns.

Simply playing the Cajuns three times will help FIU's RPI immensely ... winning one will be quite nice. FIU's Base RPI is currently #67 ... thus it is not inconceivable that winning 1/3 from UL will get them there. They are about .0150 away.

Brian