Cajun Softball OWP (through 4/8)

[GoneGolfin]

Well LSU no doubt had to move up against Alabama---Boy they scare me ---What is the latest on them and hosting down the line????

It is getting scary Boomer. LSU has 17 games remaining that will significantly boost their OWP (facing Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, McNeese State etc.). We cannot predict what Cajun opponents and LSU opponents will do the remainder of the season, but if we hold that part and the OOWP constant, we have ...

Assume UL finishes 49-1 (no more losses). If LSU goes 6-11 (.3529) in the remainder of their regular season games, they will leap the Cajuns in Adjusted RPI. I also assume that the Base RPIs remain unchanged (for bonus purposes). LSU has nine tier 1 bonus games upcoming. The above assumes two wins in those nine bonus games.

I would say LSU likely finishes with the higher RPI and may get the host nod. But the games must be played.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

It is getting scary Boomer. LSU has 17 games remaining that will significantly boost their OWP (facing Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, McNeese State etc.). We cannot predict what Cajun opponents and LSU opponents will do the remainder of the season, but if we hold that part and the OOWP constant, we have ...

Assume UL finishes 49-1 (no more losses). If LSU goes 6-11 (.3529) in the remainder of their regular season games, they will leap the Cajuns in Adjusted RPI. I also assume that the Base RPIs remain unchanged (for bonus purposes). LSU has nine tier 1 bonus games upcoming. The above assumes two wins in those nine bonus games.

I would say LSU likely finishes with the higher RPI and may get the host nod. But the games must be played.

Brian

Is it too late for April Fool's?

Brian

[ulforlife]

Is it too late for April Fool's?

Brian

That's just rude

[J-Town Cajun]

Is it too late for April Fool's?

Brian

Good one I guess. I was not really believing that they could lose 11 more games and we only have 1 loss and they finish ahead of us. If so I think RPI would just be plain stupid.

[Boomer]

Well I guess for not understanding---the 4/1/12 post mention was a relief-----but what if we lose 4-5 and they only lose 5-6 ----are we OK????

[DieHard1280]

That would be a huge travesty. I don't even want to think about the outcry in Cajunland if that happened.

[jumboragncajun]

This is a quote directly from the mouth of the chairman of selection committee: "If we finish in the top 16 in RPI, we WILL host."
This year <--- (important phrase), the only reason a top 16 RPI team won't host is if they don't submit the bid package to host.

If we don't get the top 8 as Brian projects, it would be better for us for LSU to actually land a top 8 (longshot) and we get paired with them. We would, again, have more fans than them in BR for super....or should they lose, we could host Super.

[ulforlife]

This is a quote directly from the mouth of the chairman of selection committee: "If we finish in the top 16 in RPI, we WILL host."
This year <--- (important phrase), the only reason a top 16 RPI team won't host is if they don't submit the bid package to host.

If we don't get the top 8 as Brian projects, it would be better for us for LSU to actually land a top 8 (longshot) and we get paired with them. We would, again, have more fans than them in BR for super....or should they lose, we could host Super.

The problem at this point is not to get the 15 or 16 seed, then we would get to travel to a Cal or something similar for a super. I would almost rather play at LSU

[GoneGolfin]

Good one I guess. I was not really believing that they could lose 11 more games and we only have 1 loss and they finish ahead of us. If so I think RPI would just be plain stupid.

The RPI is just plain stupid.

But the situation is not as bad as the above (joke). However, last week's projection of .6598 (finishing with one loss) is easily within striking distance of LSU. LSU finishing 9-8 with the right bonus wins would make it interesting. Of course, they will also have the benefit of the SEC Tournament.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Well I guess for not understanding---the 4/1/12 post mention was a relief-----but what if we lose 4-5 and they only lose 5-6 ----are we OK????

See my Projecting the RPI thread from last week.

In this case you cite above, I can practically guarantee you that LSU would finish higher. Losing five would put us in the ballpark of .6398 (this might not be Top 20). LSU is currently at .6374. They would move significantly higher if they lost five or six.

Brian