Cajun Softball OWP (through 4/8)

[GoneGolfin]

Cajun softball experienced a nice bump in their OWP this week, principally due to playing three games against a South Alabama team that contributes a three-game weighted 24-9 record to the OWP (.7273). But also because opponents fared well this past week ... especially ones (like Penn State) that had dismal records. You experience the biggest bump when opponents with dismal records score wins ... conversely, you score the biggest drops when opponents with excellent records lose.

The Cajuns' OWP increased from .5467 to .5682 this past week (last year at selection time it was a dismal .4880). While I do expect that the Cajuns will earn bonus points for the South Alabama wins (in fact, their RPI value will increase this week despite the sweep), it is unclear how the other RPI bonuses will fall out until all of the RPIs have been computed. Using the same RPI bonus (.0156) as last week ... and the same OOWP (.5521), we have ...

WP: .9706
OWP: .5682
OOWP: .5521
--
Base RPI: .6648
RPI Bonus: .0156
--
Adjusted RPI: .6804 (up from .6689).

If we assume we exactly keep the other bonuses (Tulsa may fall from the Top 25) and count .0013 for each South Alabama win (RPI Top 50 bonus), this puts us at an Adjusted RPI of .6843. This is around where Arizona State was last week (.6834) ... but the Arizona State RPI will be rising significantly after the sweep of UCLA.

The Cajuns may hold off Oregon this week (2/3 winners over Stanford). But these two wins over Stanford will likely be Top 25 bonus wins and a nice bump to their OWP. It may just be a matter of time before the Cajuns are surpassed by the Ducks (.6672 last week), due to the beneficial upcoming schedule.

Oklahoma is also charging hard (.6666), but fortunately dropped a game to Texas Tech last week. But they may gain on the Cajuns this week.

Louisville (.6656) will not pass the Cajuns this week. Washington (.6638 last week) should also remain behind, despite their RPI possibly increasing in winning 1/3 vs. Arizona.

Tennessee (.6622) is charging hard and will likely pass the Cajuns soon. They went 4-1 last week with a win/loss vs. Georgia and three wins over Auburn.

There are also several other big conference schools that will be moving in on the Cajuns' positioning in the coming weeks.

It is unfortunate that Middle Tennessee is having a poor season (and is on the schedule). This is an example of a series that will damage your RPI, even with a sweep. In fact, the FIU series is probably about neutral (at best) with a Cajuns sweep. FAU will be the real RPI killer.

I think that the Cajuns' RPI value this week will be at the season's zenith. That may be true of the rank as well (inching past Texas this week is possible, but probably not).

Brian

[NOCajun]

Let's assume (I know, assuming is usually a BAD thing...) for a moment the CAJUNS win out, and given what you've seen so far, do you think the CAJUNS' RPI could still finish in the Top 10??

[wcd35]

Hopefully we get to go up against USA and Troy in the conference tournament.

[GoneGolfin]

Let's assume (I know, assuming is usually a BAD thing...) for a moment the CAJUNS win out, and given what you've seen so far, do you think the CAJUNS' RPI could still finish in the Top 10??

See the long discussion I posted last week concerning this and other projected scenarios.

The short answer is that it is not impossible, but it would be quite difficult. 11-> 14 is a much higher probability, with 12 or 13 being the sweet spot.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Hopefully we get to go up against USA and Troy in the conference tournament.

At the moment, Western Kentucky is fine as well.

Brian

[wcd35]

At the moment, Western Kentucky is fine as well.

Brian

Yeah, I was going to mention them as they are above .600 on the season. How many teams still have OOC games on the schedule. If everything else is SBC matchups, then you're taking from one team's WP to pad another and considering we play everyone 3x (disregarding Conference Tournament,) its somewhat negligible. I guess once you hit that point, you really are just rooting for teams close to a the bonus range to get the wins since the WP portion will more or less cancel out in those individual conference games.

[GoneGolfin]

Yeah, I was going to mention them as they are above .600 on the season. How many teams still have OOC games on the schedule. If everything else is SBC matchups, then you're taking from one team's WP to pad another and considering we play everyone 3x (disregarding Conference Tournament,) its somewhat negligible.

It actually has a negative impact (on average) when the other conference opponents (for a given team's OWP computation) have an aggregate WP of over .500 (in games not vs. the team for which the computation is being made). This is the situation for the Sun Belt ... and in that situation, each conference game played has a negative impact on the OWP for each Sun Belt school (in the average case).

For the Cajuns, all of the other Sun Belt schools have an aggregate OWP of .531 (146-129).

The reason I say "on average" above is that it is much more complicated. You can have a really bad team win a conference game and another bad team lose a conference game (let's say FAU beats Middle). But the 1-1 result will be a lift to teams playing those teams. This is because the win really helps the WP of the winning team, while the loss does not hurt the losing team much. You can, similarly, cite the reverse case.

Brian

[wcd35]

It actually has a negative impact (on average) when the other conference opponents (for a given team's OWP computation) have an aggregate WP of over .500 (in games not vs. the team for which the computation is being made). This is the situation for the Sun Belt ... and in that situation, each conference game played has a negative impact on the OWP for each Sun Belt school.

For the Cajuns, all of the other Sun Belt schools have an aggregate OWP of .531 (146-129).

Brian

OK, I get it. Its always drawing towards .500 and that's for conference play in any conference. The SEC though, will start out with a much higher agg WP, so once they finish their conference play, it will remain much higher than the SBC or other smaller conferences, thus giving them an artificial boost (as mentioned in past weeks how RPI favors big conferences.)

To my other point, even as our WP draws down, shouldnt we be rooting for the better teams to keep winning and giving us RPI bonuses (or at least a chance)? We dont have any teams close to giving us a penalty (not that we should lose to those teams anyway) and if all things considered, the bottom teams wont drag us down on aggregate WP as it will be what it is in the end, you should want the top teams to hit that Top 25, 50, etc. And of course, all conference teams to win OOC games as well. Sound right?

[GoneGolfin]

OK, I get it. Its always drawing towards .500 and that's for conference play in any conference.

Yes. And the more conference games that are played, the more it is drawn towards .500 (it never gets there unless you begin there).

The SEC though, will start out with a much higher agg WP, so once they finish their conference play, it will remain much higher than the SBC or other smaller conferences, thus giving them an artificial boost (as mentioned in past weeks how RPI favors big conferences.)

Certainly. But to be clear, I was not making any points here concerning RPI bias towards the stronger conferences. This issue is unrelated.

To my other point, even as our WP draws down, shouldnt we be rooting for the better teams to keep winning and giving us RPI bonuses (or at least a chance)?

You certainly want any teams at or near the bonus tiers to achieve/retain that status. Other than that, the RPI impact (the impact on a given team, such as the Cajuns) of a particular conference game (not involving the Cajuns) will be dependent on the WPs and # of games played.

We dont have any teams close to giving us a penalty (not that we should lose to those teams anyway) and if all things considered, the bottom teams wont drag us down on aggregate WP as it will be what it is in the end, you should want the top teams to hit that Top 25, 50, etc. And of course, all conference teams to win OOC games as well. Sound right?

Everything except "bottom teams won't drag us down on aggregate WP as it will be what it is in the end".

Speaking strictly from the perspective of the Base RPI (discard bonuses), as I stated above, the individual W/L results does impact RPI differently, depending on the number of games played by the teams. This is because RPI is not computed using aggregate WP, but WPs, OWPs, etc. of each individual team (using a percentage).

Simple example ...
- Team A is 6-14 (.3000)
- Team B is 20-20 (.5000)

You played each team once earlier in the season. Team A and Team B then play one game each (against some other opponent). The computed OWP will be different depending on whom wins and whom loses.

This comes into play more with northern teams that cannot pay as many games. But it can have a small impact when conference games are played.

Brian

[Boomer]

Well LSU no doubt had to move up against Alabama---Boy they scare me ---What is the latest on them and hosting down the line????

[GoneGolfin]

Well LSU no doubt had to move up against Alabama---Boy they scare me ---What is the latest on them and hosting down the line????

It is getting scary Boomer. LSU has 17 games remaining that will significantly boost their OWP (facing Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, McNeese State etc.). We cannot predict what Cajun opponents and LSU opponents will do the remainder of the season, but if we hold that part and the OOWP constant, we have ...

Assume UL finishes 49-1 (no more losses). If LSU goes 6-11 (.3529) in the remainder of their regular season games, they will leap the Cajuns in Adjusted RPI. I also assume that the Base RPIs remain unchanged (for bonus purposes). LSU has nine tier 1 bonus games upcoming. The above assumes two wins in those nine bonus games.

I would say LSU likely finishes with the higher RPI and may get the host nod. But the games must be played.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

It is getting scary Boomer. LSU has 17 games remaining that will significantly boost their OWP (facing Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, McNeese State etc.). We cannot predict what Cajun opponents and LSU opponents will do the remainder of the season, but if we hold that part and the OOWP constant, we have ...

Assume UL finishes 49-1 (no more losses). If LSU goes 6-11 (.3529) in the remainder of their regular season games, they will leap the Cajuns in Adjusted RPI. I also assume that the Base RPIs remain unchanged (for bonus purposes). LSU has nine tier 1 bonus games upcoming. The above assumes two wins in those nine bonus games.

I would say LSU likely finishes with the higher RPI and may get the host nod. But the games must be played.

Brian

Is it too late for April Fool's?

Brian