Louisville win streak ends at 28 ...

[GoneGolfin]

It would be very easy for some teams to have great records just playing the Prairie View A&Ms and Maines of the world. They'd look good on paper, but would have proved NOTHING...having played NO ONE.

So, yes, if we play a Bama or Arizona on the road and lose by one, we accomplished more than beating Prairie View by 8 at home.

You should not get rewarded (RPI increase) for getting swept by an RPI Top XX team (especially at home). Period. This is the case for the vast majority of teams. The "XX" depends on where your RPI component numbers are relative to the same numbers of the opponent you are playing.

And in addition to this blatant bias in the base RPI formula ... you should not be awarded an additional arbitrary bonus for winning a game against said opponent (if in Base RPI Top 50) ... in conference ... and at home. This just exacerbates an absurd system.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Not necessarily. They lost again today (two losses this weekend). And while their WP will drop significantly, this is only 25% of the formula. Second, they had a significant lead over the Cajuns entering the week (.6777 vs. .6654). This gap is more than the gap between the Cajuns at #7 and Texas A&M at #12.

What happens with the Cajuns will depend much on how our opponents fare today (and fared this week). We may also lose some bonus points this week. Several teams were straddling the lines on both sides.

Now that we have some week ending numbers, a few things ...

Louisville's WP component took a substantial drop from 1.000 to .9355, after going 2-2 this week. Given that WP is 25% of the formula, this alone will be a .0161 drop in their RPI. Now, you will need to account for the Top 25 bonus Louisville will earn for their win over DePaul. But this still results in a drop of .0135, assuming all other things to be equal (OWP, OOWP, and other bonuses).

The gap between the Cajuns and Cardinals heading into the week was .0123. One loss this week by the Cards would probably not have been enough to close the significant gap. But it looks like two may be when you consider that the Cajuns Adjusted RPI rose this week by .0031 (if you hold OOWP constant).

Hence, with a Cajun net advantage of .0043 (not factoring in Cardinals' OWP and OOWP and Cajuns' OOWP ... and none of the updated bonuses), there is a decent chance that the Cajuns slip by the Cardinals, at least for this week.

Brian

[CajunRed]

You should not get rewarded (RPI increase) for getting swept by an RPI Top XX team (especially at home). Period. This is the case for the vast majority of teams. The "XX" depends on where your RPI component numbers are relative to the same numbers of the opponent you are playing.

And in addition to this blatant bias in the base RPI formula ... you should not be awarded an additional arbitrary bonus for winning a game against said opponent (if in Base RPI Top 50) ... in conference ... and at home. This just exacerbates an absurd system.

Brian

I agree with that. I was making a point about someone implying that any win is better than any loss.

[CajunEXPRESS]

It would be very easy for some teams to have great records just playing the Prairie View A&Ms and Maines of the world. They'd look good on paper, but would have proved NOTHING...having played NO ONE.

So, yes, if we play a Bama or Arizona on the road and lose by one, we accomplished more than beating Prairie View by 8 at home.

And if you are in a power conference, and you end up with a less than an outstanding record, and still you are rewarded, and by God those teams from Lafayette come to your house and shut down your season twice. You can now feel good because you lost to the best because you were rewarded beyond your honest ability. That is exactly what happened to LSU, and even after losing to us twice both times rewarded in post season RPI better than us. Now it is not like we came into these games as upset conference champs, but insteadteams with great records year after year, and getting deep into the post season, and still screwed by a bias system.

This happens every year in the NCAA basketball tournaments when great mid major teams are pitted against over ranked over seeded poer conference teams with overstated RPI who are rewarded for losing to teams everyone loses to. They are often quickly dispatched by lower seeded mid level teams. Mid level teams that are not in the tournament because their RPI does not measure up may or may not be as good as those over ranked losers, but they did not get to lose to the power teams multiple times driving up their RPI.

I am not saying RPI is not a vailid measure, I am saying too much stock is placed in it, especially when some of these teams have losing or barely break even records in their own conferences. Conferences where they are at least accorded home games and officials paid by the conference, and guided by the conference to be fair. The RPI is an easy excuse to give the power conference team the benefit of the doubt over and over, and over.

[CajunMarineBBK]

CajunExpress I could not have said it any better myself you are so right.

[GoneGolfin]

I am not saying RPI is not a vailid measure,

I am.

Brian

[CajunEXPRESS]

Brian I am saying RPI is a tool, no tool is perfect. I still insist you have to win regardless of who you play to justify rank, anybody can lose to Alabama, now beating them once or taking a series says a lot. But losing? Prairie View can lose to the best of them.

I put more validity in who you beat than who you lose to.

[ulforlife]

Now that we have some week ending numbers, a few things ...

Louisville's WP component took a substantial drop from 1.000 to .9355, after going 2-2 this week. Given that WP is 25% of the formula, this alone will be a .0161 drop in their RPI. Now, you will need to account for the Top 25 bonus Louisville will earn for their win over DePaul. But this still results in a drop of .0135, assuming all other things to be equal (OWP, OOWP, and other bonuses).

The gap between the Cajuns and Cardinals heading into the week was .0123. One loss this week by the Cards would probably not have been enough to close the significant gap. But it looks like two may be when you consider that the Cajuns Adjusted RPI rose this week by .0031 (if you hold OOWP constant).

Hence, with a Cajun net advantage of .0043 (not factoring in Cardinals' OWP and OOWP and Cajuns' OOWP ... and none of the updated bonuses), there is a decent chance that the Cajuns slip by the Cardinals, at least for this week.

Brian

The NCAA doesn't release this every week though do they?

[GoneGolfin]

Brian I am saying RPI is a tool, no tool is perfect.

And I am saying that is far too kind of a statement regarding the RPI ... even moreso in softball than in baseball. It is a really bad tool.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The NCAA doesn't release this every week though do they?

Release what, specifically?

All of this can be calculated/automated if you have the data and know the rules/formulas.

Brian