Louisville win streak ends at 28 ...

[DieHard1280]

April Fool's, right?

Brian

Not really. Maybe I'm dense, but how does the simple virtue of the Cajuns not playing (ignoring PEP, OOWP, OOO...WO, etc ) affect their rpi? In and of itself, how does the Cajuns not playing affect their rpi? I know their WP doesn't go up if they don't play, but it doesn't go down, either. Or am I missing something? If I am, please let me know.

[Turbine]

I'm no pert past or future, , , but "your" winning percentage is only a portion of you "your" RPI.

It is my understanding that your RPI can be affected when your previous oppontents win or lose and when your previous opponents-opponents win or lose.

[GoneGolfin]

Not really. Maybe I'm dense, but how does the simple virtue of the Cajuns not playing (ignoring PEP, OOWP, OOO...WO, etc ) affect their rpi?

With all of the talk about RPI and the OWP threads, I seriously thought you were pulling my leg.

How can you ignore OWP and OOWP?

OWP is the RPI ... and OWP + OOWP is 75% of the RPI.

Brian

[DieHard1280]

With all of the talk about RPI and the OWP threads, I seriously thought you were pulling my leg.

How can you ignore OWP and OOWP?

OWP is the RPI ... and OWP + OOWP is 75% of the RPI.

Brian

Lol. No. I realize you can't ignore it. You've shown how big a part of rpi it is. I only mentioned what I did because RaginScotsman asked how not playing this week affected the rpi and their standing.

[CajunEXPRESS]

See the other thread (Cajun OWP). You will see how our RPI has been changing on a daily basis ... and this is without factoring in the OOWP changes. Most of the RPI is driven by how our opponents fare ... hence I focus on the OWP.

At this point, we benefit most when our weakest opponents win.

Brian

There is just something wrong with a system that rewards failure. I understand that losing to an outstanding team is no disgrace, but you lost. I understand beating an average to below average team is nothing to brag about, but you won. Taking all that into account it is simply wrong to reward a team with a bad record simply because they lose to better teams.

I mean the only difference is that UL does not get to play Bama and Florida home and away every other season, but hey if we did and lost we could say yea but look who we lost to give us a regional, reward our loses with high rank. I guess saying is at some point common sense should kick in. ANYONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE A SERIES OR GET SWEPT BY some of these teams, it does not mean you are good or bad, only that you lost to a better team, something the 300th worst team could do.

[GoneGolfin]

Lol. No. I realize you can't ignore it. You've shown how big a part of rpi it is. I only mentioned what I did because RaginScotsman asked how not playing this week affected the rpi and their standing.

The only way your RPI does not change is if all of the below occur ...

1) You do not play any games
2) Your opponents do not play any games
3) The opponents of your opponents do not play any games

There is rarely a day during the week where the Cajuns' RPI does not change.

Note that the above does not mean that your RPI rank cannot change. This is only guaranteed to be the case if there are no NCAA Div. I games played.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

There is just something wrong with a system that rewards failure. I understand that losing to an outstanding team is no disgrace, but you lost. I understand beating an average to below average team is nothing to brag about, but you won. Taking all that into account it is simply wrong to reward a team with a bad record simply because they lose to better teams.

I mean the only difference is that UL does not get to play Bama and Florida home and away every other season, but hey if we did and lost we could say yea but look who we lost to give us a regional, reward our loses with high rank. I guess saying is at some point common sense should kick in. ANYONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE A SERIES OR GET SWEPT BY some of these teams, it does not mean you are good or bad, only that you lost to a better team, something the 300th worst team could do.

Such is the folly that is the RPI system.

Brian

[CajunRed]

It would be very easy for some teams to have great records just playing the Prairie View A&Ms and Maines of the world. They'd look good on paper, but would have proved NOTHING...having played NO ONE.

So, yes, if we play a Bama or Arizona on the road and lose by one, we accomplished more than beating Prairie View by 8 at home.

[GoneGolfin]

It would be very easy for some teams to have great records just playing the Prairie View A&Ms and Maines of the world. They'd look good on paper, but would have proved NOTHING...having played NO ONE.

So, yes, if we play a Bama or Arizona on the road and lose by one, we accomplished more than beating Prairie View by 8 at home.

You should not get rewarded (RPI increase) for getting swept by an RPI Top XX team (especially at home). Period. This is the case for the vast majority of teams. The "XX" depends on where your RPI component numbers are relative to the same numbers of the opponent you are playing.

And in addition to this blatant bias in the base RPI formula ... you should not be awarded an additional arbitrary bonus for winning a game against said opponent (if in Base RPI Top 50) ... in conference ... and at home. This just exacerbates an absurd system.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Not necessarily. They lost again today (two losses this weekend). And while their WP will drop significantly, this is only 25% of the formula. Second, they had a significant lead over the Cajuns entering the week (.6777 vs. .6654). This gap is more than the gap between the Cajuns at #7 and Texas A&M at #12.

What happens with the Cajuns will depend much on how our opponents fare today (and fared this week). We may also lose some bonus points this week. Several teams were straddling the lines on both sides.

Now that we have some week ending numbers, a few things ...

Louisville's WP component took a substantial drop from 1.000 to .9355, after going 2-2 this week. Given that WP is 25% of the formula, this alone will be a .0161 drop in their RPI. Now, you will need to account for the Top 25 bonus Louisville will earn for their win over DePaul. But this still results in a drop of .0135, assuming all other things to be equal (OWP, OOWP, and other bonuses).

The gap between the Cajuns and Cardinals heading into the week was .0123. One loss this week by the Cards would probably not have been enough to close the significant gap. But it looks like two may be when you consider that the Cajuns Adjusted RPI rose this week by .0031 (if you hold OOWP constant).

Hence, with a Cajun net advantage of .0043 (not factoring in Cardinals' OWP and OOWP and Cajuns' OOWP ... and none of the updated bonuses), there is a decent chance that the Cajuns slip by the Cardinals, at least for this week.

Brian

[CajunRed]

You should not get rewarded (RPI increase) for getting swept by an RPI Top XX team (especially at home). Period. This is the case for the vast majority of teams. The "XX" depends on where your RPI component numbers are relative to the same numbers of the opponent you are playing.

And in addition to this blatant bias in the base RPI formula ... you should not be awarded an additional arbitrary bonus for winning a game against said opponent (if in Base RPI Top 50) ... in conference ... and at home. This just exacerbates an absurd system.

Brian

I agree with that. I was making a point about someone implying that any win is better than any loss.

[CajunEXPRESS]

It would be very easy for some teams to have great records just playing the Prairie View A&Ms and Maines of the world. They'd look good on paper, but would have proved NOTHING...having played NO ONE.

So, yes, if we play a Bama or Arizona on the road and lose by one, we accomplished more than beating Prairie View by 8 at home.

And if you are in a power conference, and you end up with a less than an outstanding record, and still you are rewarded, and by God those teams from Lafayette come to your house and shut down your season twice. You can now feel good because you lost to the best because you were rewarded beyond your honest ability. That is exactly what happened to LSU, and even after losing to us twice both times rewarded in post season RPI better than us. Now it is not like we came into these games as upset conference champs, but insteadteams with great records year after year, and getting deep into the post season, and still screwed by a bias system.

This happens every year in the NCAA basketball tournaments when great mid major teams are pitted against over ranked over seeded poer conference teams with overstated RPI who are rewarded for losing to teams everyone loses to. They are often quickly dispatched by lower seeded mid level teams. Mid level teams that are not in the tournament because their RPI does not measure up may or may not be as good as those over ranked losers, but they did not get to lose to the power teams multiple times driving up their RPI.

I am not saying RPI is not a vailid measure, I am saying too much stock is placed in it, especially when some of these teams have losing or barely break even records in their own conferences. Conferences where they are at least accorded home games and officials paid by the conference, and guided by the conference to be fair. The RPI is an easy excuse to give the power conference team the benefit of the doubt over and over, and over.