Cajun Softball OWP

[ulforlife]

so what you're saying is "just win"

[CajunRed]

Through yesterday's games (3/21/12), the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is now over .500 at .5141, compared to .4890 after the Arizona State game on 3/15. Some of the movers this week that have helped the Cajuns' OWP are Rutgers (.5000 vs. .4118), Hofstra (.3125 vs. .1667), Boston (.6818 vs. .6250), Houston (.5769 vs. .5217), and North Texas (.5217 vs. 4211). Some of the teams falling notably include Mississippi State (.6207 vs. .6800) and Winthrop (losses to Cal, Texas, Texas A&M) (.4231 vs. .5000).

Nicholls State (.1905) and Stephen F. Austin (.3043) continue to be a drag on the Cajuns' OWP, but at least the Cajuns only have two games against these opponents in total.

Georgia Tech will contribute some aid to the Cajun OWP as they come in with a .5758 winning percentage. And while it only constitutes 25% of the Cajuns' RPI (OOWP), Tech's OWP is strong and will help some. Troy has a nice 7-1 win over Auburn last night and while this win helps Troy much more than it does UL (OWP for Troy vs. OOWP for UL), three games this weekend against a Troy opponent with a 19-7 record (.7308) will be quite beneficial to the Cajuns' OWP.

If you factor in the games vs. Georgia Tech and Troy through Sunday (assuming all games can be played) and factor out any game results by Georgia Tech this weekend and all other Cajun opponents thus far not named Troy, the Cajuns' OWP will rise from .5141 to .5390.

The Cajuns' WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6760.

It should be noted that if/when the Cajuns incur their first loss, it will impact the RPI significantly. This is because the Cajuns cannot improve their WP (1.0000 is perfect). Additional wins do not help the Cajuns' WP in the scenario of a perfect record. But a first loss will have a significant impact. However, the impact of that first loss is mitigated as the wins pile up and the Cajuns add to their win total.

Brian

I was just about to post this info. Thanks for getting this out there.

[Cajun90]

Red your heads hurting again isn't it?

[CajunAmos]

Red your heads hurting again isn't it?

That would be OWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW...................P

[GoneGolfin]

I was just about to post this info. Thanks for getting this out there.

I am always happy to serve as your proxy.

Brian

[wcd35]

Brian, any idea what the RPI is for top programs (top 10 or so). I tried to find last years numbers to get an idea but all the NCAA releases is a ranking

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, any idea what the RPI is for top programs (top 10 or so). I tried to find last years numbers to get an idea but all the NCAA releases is a ranking

The actual RPI numbers are not published. Warren Nolan published the Base RPI number and the SOS number ((2*OWP) + OOWP)/3. But that service ceased to operate after 2010.

If you look at the Base RPI numbers from the 2010 season at a time a little later than now (after games of 4/11/10), the #10 Base RPI was .6344. UL was #34 at .5798. The Cajuns were only 24-14 at the time (.6316) but had a decent SOS (.5798). A 30-8 record would have given them a Base RPI ranking in the Top 15. A 33-5 record would have given them an RPI rank of #8.

The part of the equation that we do not know is the Cajuns' OOWP. This would be a tremendous amount of work to research and calculate given that I know of no available NCAA softball game results feeds (data file with each game result ... could be in CSV or tab delimited format). And even if you went to the website of each Cajun opponents' opponent and tabulated the results, it would only be good for that instance in time ... and would only give you the Cajun Base RPI number, not the rank ... as you would need to calculate the RPI number for every team to establish a rank. What is really needed is a daily game results data file ... it would then be easy to write code that could publish the RPI for all teams on a daily basis.

We do know the Cajuns' WP and OWP. Combined this is .6760. The remaining 25% is the OOWP. If we were conservative and used a .5000 for OOWP (which I think is reasonably conservative), this would provide a Base RPI of .6320. This would be a SOS of .5094 (probably outside of the Top 100), which is not strong. But as I have stated, I feel confident this number will improve. Using the 4/12/10 Base RPI publication as a guidepost, this would put the Cajuns at about #12. An OOWP of .5400 would provide an SOS of .5227 and an RPI of .6420 ... good for a Base RPI rank of #6 on 4/12/10.

Keep in mind ... this is Base RPI ... not Adjusted RPI (or simply RPI). The bonuses and penalties portion of the formula is not represented. While the Cajuns do not have any bonuses or penalties (Adjusted RPI = Base RPI), teams around them in the rankings may ... and thus the rankings are affected. The publication that the NCAA will release next week is the Adjusted RPI.

As I have stated in prior threads, I also want to emphasize that ... while the Cajuns' WP can go nowhere but down ... I feel that the Cajuns' OWP will continue to rise.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Through yesterday's games (3/21/12), the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is now over .500 at .5141, compared to .4890 after the Arizona State game on 3/15.

Georgia Tech will contribute some aid to the Cajun OWP as they come in with a .5758 winning percentage. And while it only constitutes 25% of the Cajuns' RPI (OOWP), Tech's OWP is strong and will help some. Troy has a nice 7-1 win over Auburn last night and while this win helps Troy much more than it does UL (OWP for Troy vs. OOWP for UL), three games this weekend against a Troy opponent with a 19-7 record (.7308) will be quite beneficial to the Cajuns' OWP.

If you factor in the games vs. Georgia Tech and Troy through Sunday (assuming all games can be played) and factor out any game results by Georgia Tech this weekend and all other Cajun opponents thus far not named Troy, the Cajuns' OWP will rise from .5141 to .5390.

The Cajuns' WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6760.

Accounting for the two games vs. Georgia Tech tonight (but not counting the results of other Cajun opponents tonight) ...

OWP is now .5185 (from .5141)
WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6790 (from .6760)

I can confidently say that the Cajuns' OOWP went up tonight. Georgia Tech has played an impressive schedule.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Accounting for the two games vs. Georgia Tech tonight (but not counting the results of other Cajun opponents tonight) ...

OWP is now .5185 (from .5141)
WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6790 (from .6760)

I can confidently say that the Cajuns' OOWP went up tonight. Georgia Tech has played an impressive schedule.

Brian

Update through game results of 3/25/12 ...

While the Cajuns' WP dropped from 1.0000 to .9677, the all-important OWP rose from .5185 to 5442 this weekend (it is twice as important as WP). The result is that the combined WP+OWP (properly weighted) rose from .6790 to .6854.

If I use a conservative estimate of .5000 for the Cajuns' OOWP, we have an overall RPI of .6390 (up from .6343 before the weekend).

The Troy series was big from an RPI standpoint because it added a three-game weighted high OWP to the Cajuns' schedule. Excluding all of the other opponent games since the Georgia Tech series (Thursday), the Troy series brought the Cajuns' OWP from .5185 to .5427. So, despite the one loss to the Trojans, the Troy series alone brought the Cajuns' combined WP+OWP from .6790 to .6844. The play of other Cajun opponents this weekend was responsible for the remainder .0010 increase (.6844 to .6854).

As for the play of other Cajuns opponents this weekend, the following opponents significantly helped/hurt the Cajuns' OWP ...

Helped:
Hostra 3-0 (improved from .3125 to .4211)
Houston 3-0 (improved from .5769 to .6207) * 2-game weighted
Mississippi Valley State 4-0 (improved from .4815 to .5484)
Boston 4-0 (improved from .6818 to .7308)
Tulsa 3-0 (improved from .7917 to .8148)

Note that I did not include Arizona State above because their WP is so close to 1.0000, wins do not help much. However, losses will hurt. Going 3-0 vs. Arizona this weekend only brings the Cajuns' OWP for Arizona State from .9333 to .9394. We will however, get a decent boost in OOWP from ASU adding Arizona to their schedule (weighted as three games).

I also did not include Michigan as they swept three games from Penn State (both single game opponents of the Cajuns). Though the effect is not completely a wash due to the effects of wins/losses compiled against OWPs over or under .5000.

Hurt:
North Texas is at the top of the list, going 1-3 and seeing their portion of our OWP drop from .5217 to .4815 (weighted three games). Of course, NT going 1-2 vs. FIU this weekend will come back to the Cajuns fully when the Cajuns add FIU to their schedule (assuming all three games can be played).

Also, Rutgers, UTEP, Northwestern, and Mississippi State went 0-3 while Winthrop went 0-4.

Brian

[ulforlife]

The first RPI will be released this week correct?

[GoneGolfin]

The first RPI will be released this week correct?

It is supposed to be this week. I do recall the RPI being published on Monday's in the past, though they may not publish until tomorrow.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Update through game results of 3/25/12 ...

While the Cajuns' WP dropped from 1.0000 to .9677, the all-important OWP rose from .5185 to 5405 this weekend (it is twice as important as WP). The result is that the combined WP+OWP (properly weighted) rose from .6790 to .6854.

If I use a conservative estimate of .5000 for the Cajuns' OOWP, we have an overall RPI of .6390 (up from .6343 before the weekend).

Based on the data that I have, I was able to reverse engineer the other components of the Cajuns' RPI. We now know the OOWP and the RPI bonuses.

WP: .9677
OWP: .5405
OOWP: .5505
SOS: .5438
---
Base RPI: .6498 (Base RPI Rank: #7)
RPI Bonuses: .0156 (10 wins qualifying for RPI bonus)
---
Adjusted RPI: .6654 (Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Without the RPI bonuses, the Cajuns would have an Adjusted RPI rank of #13.

Adjusted RPI Rankings
#1 Alabama (.7000)
#2 Florida (.6879)
#3 California (.6878)
#4 Tennessee (.6845)
#5 Arizona State (.6790)
#6 Louisville (.6777)
#7 Louisiana (.6654)
#8 Texas (.6615)
#9 Washington (.6613)
#10 Oregon (.6561)

Brian