2006 Ragin' Cajuns Baseball RPI

[GoneGolfin]

In the not so good category ...

Ball State defeated MAC regular season champion Kent State for the MAC automatic bid 7-4. Kent State defeated Miami-Ohio earlier in the day and was thus 1-1 today. Kent State's RPI will be tight w/respect to that of the Cajuns. They are also conference champions.

Liberty upset Winthrop in the Big South Tournament to win the automatic bid. Winthrop is a lock for an at-large bid. Regular season champion Birmingham-Southern is likely out of the tournament.

In the MVC, Conference champion Evansville defeated 2nd place Missouri State to force a second game for the MVC automatic bid. I think at this point, Cajun fans should root for Evansville. 3rd place Wichita State is also vying for a bid.

In the good category ...

WAC champion Fresno State is in the tournament finals undefeated and must be beaten twice tomorrow to wrest the automatic bid from the Bulldogs. At-large lock Hawaii is still in the field as well. Things are looking good for the Cajuns here.

Brian

Good news ...

Regular season champion Evansville came back from an opening round loss to #6 seed (last) Bradley to win its first ever MVC Tournament Championship and the accompanying automatic bid. Evansville defeated Missouri State twice today, most recently a 2-1 win that was a great game to watch. This is good for the Cajuns since Evansville was likely more of a threat to take an at-large bid from the Cajuns (conference championship, head-to-head win over UL in Lafayette, conference tournament finals appearance, winners of 14 of their last 15). The Cajuns will be better off battling it out against 2nd place Missouri State and 3rd place Wichita State. Louisiana, South Alabama, Missouri State, and Wichita State are right on top of each other. Wichita State has a head-to-head win over South Alabama in Mobile this season. Going into today, the Cajuns had the lowest aRPI and pRPI of the four. Missouri State will likely drop below the Cajuns after today.

In another bit of good news, Michigan keeps winning and defeated Minnesota tonight 11-9 to force a final game tomorrow against the Gophers. I am confident the NCAA will award Michigan an at-large bid if they need one. The Big Ten does not deserve any other at-large bids. A win by Minnesota steals one from the bubble pool.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

The RPI calculations are out from SEBaseball.com and Boyd Nation.

The RPI figures are listed below as (Adjusted RPI (aRPI), Pseudo-RPI (pRPI), Base RPI)

aRPI = SEBaseball.com adjusted RPI calculation
pRPI = Boyd Nation's adjusted RPI calculation
Base RPI = Base formula without bonuses and penalties

Troy (21, 22, 18)
South Alabama (39, 40, 40)
Louisiana (54, 53, 47)

A general comment is that the Cajuns are bunched in tightly with two teams in front of them and three teams in back. Michigan will pass Louisiana in Base RPI and pRPI with a win today (Michigan is already in front of the Cajuns in aRPI).

The case of Louisiana vs. South Alabama

RPI:
Current RPI figures listed above. Advantage South Alabama. The gap is only 7 spots in the Base RPI.

Head-to-Head:
Louisiana 2-2
South Alabama 2-2

Last 10 games played:
Louisiana 6-4
South Alabama 6-4

Last 20 games played:
South Alabama 16-4
Louisiana 13-7

Last 30 games played:
Louisiana 22-8
South Alabama 21-9

W-L vs. pRPI Top 25
Louisiana 2-1
South Alabama 3-8

W-L vs. pRPI Top 50
Louisiana 4-3
South Alabama 7-11

W-L vs. pRPI Top 100
Louisiana 14-13
South Alabama 14-16

W-L vs. pRPI TOP 150
South Alabama 25-19
Louisiana 22-19

W-L vs. pRPI < 150
South Alabama 13-0
Louisiana 17-1 (guess who the loss was against)

Conference Record:
Louisiana 21-7 (19-5 regular season, 2nd place | 2-2 Conference Tournament)
South Alabama 18-9 (16-7 regular season, 3rd place | 1-2 Conference Tournament | 1-0 vs. Troy in non-conference game)

Non-Conference Common Opponents: (Nicholls State, Southeastern Louisiana)
South Alabama 5-0
Louisiana 4-0

Road Record:
South Alabama 14-9
Louisiana 16-13

Brian

[UL_Cajuns]

Looks like USA might get in before us.

[GoneGolfin]

Looks like USA might get in before us.

Could it happen? Yes, the NCAA has done more surprising things in the past. But I think if they look at this one hard and use the criteria they have employed in the past, the Cajuns are awarded a bid before South Alabama. Primarily due to ...

- The Cajuns evened the season series with South Alabama (with three of the four games at South Alabama and one a neutral site). This was once a South Alabama advantage. No more.
- The Cajuns finished 2 1/2 games ahead of South Alabama in the regular season standings
- The Cajuns finished ahead of South Alabama in the conference tournament
- The Cajuns eliminated South Alabama from the conference tournament
- The RPI gap is justifiable given the other criteria. The commonly used adjusted RPIs have a gap of 15 and 13, while the Base RPI has a gap of only 7.
- Although they have not played many games, the Cajuns have a better record in the Top 25 and Top 50 RPI categories. They also have a better record against the Top 100 RPI.

RPI is the only advantage South Alabama has. The all important conference regular season and tournament finish is strongly in favor of the Cajuns. All of the other categories are basically a wash with the exception of the Top RPI categories mentioned above (advantage Cajuns).

But again, yes it could happen.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Michigan leads Minnesota 8-3 with the Gophers batting in the Top of the 6th. While Michigan winning will hurt the Cajun RPI slightly, it will ensure that another at-large bid will not go to a team that otherwise would not make the field. That last bid may be the Cajuns'.

In another championship game that may have an impact, Kansas leads Nebraska 1-0 in the bottom of the 2nd. Now, I am confident that Kansas is in the NCAA field. But Kansas winning the automatic bid may allow the Selection Committee to leave Missouri at home comfortably, leaving the Big XII with six bids instead of seven.

Another important set of games to watch today is the doubleheader between Cal-State Fullerton and Long Beach State. Cal-State Fullerton won Friday night's game behind an impressive complete game shutout by Wes Roemer. If Long Beach State is swept, they may be on the outside looking in.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Michigan leads Minnesota 8-3 with the Gophers batting in the Top of the 6th. While Michigan winning will hurt the Cajun RPI slightly, it will ensure that another at-large bid will not go to a team that otherwise would not make the field. That last bid may be the Cajuns'.

In another championship game that may have an impact, Kansas leads Nebraska 1-0 in the bottom of the 2nd. Now, I am confident that Kansas is in the NCAA field. But Kansas winning the automatic bid may allow the Selection Committee to leave Missouri at home comfortably, leaving the Big XII with six bids instead of seven.

Another important set of games to watch today is the doubleheader between Cal-State Fullerton and Long Beach State. Cal-State Fullerton won Friday night's game behind an impressive complete game shutout by Wes Roemer. If Long Beach State is swept, they may be on the outside looking in.

Brian

Michigan wins the Big 10 automatic bid today, 9-3 over Minnesota.

Kansas leads Nebraska 5-0 in the bottom of the 4th.

Brian

[CajunKahouna]

Keep the good news coming...................

[GoneGolfin]

In another championship game that may have an impact, Kansas leads Nebraska 1-0 in the bottom of the 2nd. Now, I am confident that Kansas is in the NCAA field. But Kansas winning the automatic bid may allow the Selection Committee to leave Missouri at home comfortably, leaving the Big XII with six bids instead of seven.

Well, Kansas won the Big XII Tournament and automatic bid. Might the selection committee now only select six Big XII teams, leaving Missouri at home? Stay tuned.

Another important set of games to watch today is the doubleheader between Cal-State Fullerton and Long Beach State. Cal-State Fullerton won Friday night's game behind an impressive complete game shutout by Wes Roemer. If Long Beach State is swept, they may be on the outside looking in.

More good news. CSF obliterated Long Beach State today in Game 1 10-2. Game 2 to begin shortly.

Brian

[Turbine]

Thanks Brian