Hey Brian...Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
what is the Cajuns RPI now after winning the first game to Arkansas State and how much to you think it would go up with a win against Middle Tennessee?
Lovin them Cajuns
Ragin' Cajuns Fan for Sure
Re: RPI and the Cajuns
Hey Brian...
what is the Cajuns RPI now after winning the first game to Arkansas State and how much to you think it would go up with a win against Middle Tennessee?
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: RPI and the Cajuns
Louisiana is sitting at #49, after having been surpassed by Notre Dame.
41 0.569 34 21 34 21 UC Irvine
42 0.568 42 15 42 15 Jacksonville
43 0.566 28 28 28 28 Florida
44 0.563 29 24 29 24 Long Beach State
45 0.562 42 19 43 19 Wichita State
46 0.559 39 16 39 16 Old Dominion
47 0.559 42 14 43 14 Notre Dame
48 0.558 25 30 25 30 Southern California
49 0.557 38 18 38 18 Louisiana-Lafayette
50 0.557 30 24 30 24 Missouri
51 0.556 33 24 33 24 East Carolina
52 0.556 38 19 38 19 North Carolina-Wilmington
53 0.555 37 19 37 19 San Francisco
54 0.555 26 30 26 30 Maryland
55 0.553 31 20 31 20 Missouri State
56 0.553 28 24 31 24 Texas Tech
57 0.553 34 17 36 17 Kent State
58 0.553 32 23 32 23 San Diego
59 0.552 32 14 35 14 Oral Roberts
60 0.552 39 17 39 17 Connecticut
Should the Cajuns defeat Middle Tennessee, I expect their rating to be at least .558 or .559 (currently .557). But where they will rank depends on how other teams do around them. See my post in another thread concerning how other school's in the vicinity of the Cajuns (w/ respect to at-large bids) are faring today (and yesterday).
Old Dominion losing today will help. Should the Cajuns win, I expect they will surpass Old Dominion. Notre Dame does not play today. I also expect the Cajuns to jump USC with a win today. Provided Wichita State holds on and wins today and East Carolina does not upset Houston tonight, I see the Cajuns likely being tied with Notre Dame (or just behind them) and positioned at about #47 (with Notre Dame at #46). But I am just guestimating and not running actual numbers.
Lovin them Cajuns
Ragin' Cajuns Fan for Sure
Re: RPI and the Cajuns
thanks man, im trying to learn this whole RPI thing, you make it MUCH easier to follow and i think i can see how it plays out... best of luck to the cajuns, glass is going to take care of business
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Cajuns on the bubble ...
The ranking in parentheses is Boyd Nation's pRPI and was taken before today’s games. Louisiana currently has a pRPI of 57 (.553 rating) before today’s win over South Alabama.
(#57, .553) Louisiana vs. (#73) Middle Tennessee
The win over South Alabama was huge for the Cajuns. In my mind, it places the Cajuns ahead of the Jaguars in the eyes of the Selection Committee because ...
- The Cajuns evened the season series with South Alabama (with three of the four games at South Alabama and one a neutral site)
- The Cajuns finished 2 1/2 games ahead of South Alabama in the regular season standings
- The Cajuns finished ahead of South Alabama in the conference tournament
- The RPI gap will be closed some more after today
That said, the Cajuns still have work to do and are competing against other schools in the race for an at-large bid. I think that an appearance in the finals (two wins over Middle Tennessee) will seal an at-large bid for the Cajuns, no matter who wins the automatic bid. A single-win over Middle Tennessee is big, but still not a lock for the Cajuns. It does get the Cajuns to the 40 win mark. A loss this afternoon for the Cajuns will make things rather interesting come Monday. In the event that the Cajuns do not make the finals, Troy winning the automatic bid certainly helps. But I do not think this precludes the Cajuns from an at-large bid (it simply costs one of the available at-large bids in the pool). The NCAA Selection committee may have a hard time leaving both South Alabama and Louisiana home while inviting only two Sun Belt teams.
Some of the other games that impacts the Cajuns' chances at an at-large bid follows ...
(#96) Mercer 7 (#43, .565) Jacksonville 6
Jacksonville has been eliminated from the Atlantic Sun Tournament and has a good shot at an at-large bid, being that their RPI will likely still be Top 50 and are conference champions. But the 1-2 conference tournament does not help the Dolphins and they are now on the bubble. This result is definitely not good for bubble teams.
(#101) Minnesota 6 (#60, .550) Michigan 2
Michigan is now in the loser's bracket, while Minnesota and (#88, .532) Ohio State are undefeated. This loss hurts bubble teams as Michigan (conference champion) has an excellent chance at a snow-belt at-large bid. Although, Minnesota beating Michigan helps the UL RPI and should help the Cajuns' record against the Top 100 RPI.
(#88, .502) Ohio State vs. (#101) Minnesota
The winner here is in the driver's seat for the Big Ten automatic bid. Minnesota continuing to win helps the UL RPI.
(#9) Oklahoma vs. (#49, .556) Missouri
7th place Missouri has come back from the dead to challenge for an at-large bid. The win over potential #2 seed Oklahoma State on Wednesday was huge. Missouri is 1-0 in pool play while Oklahoma is 0-1. Cajun fans should be cheering for a Sooner win.
(#14) Oklahoma State vs. (#40, .571) Kansas
6th place Kansas had a huge win over Oklahoma Wednesday and is 1-0 in pool play. Both Kansas and Missouri are causing problems for other bubble teams. My gut feel is that only one of the two make the postseason. But if both keep winning, it could be both. Cajuns fans should be cheering for an Oklahoma State win.
(#78, .539) St. John's 10 (#47, .558) Notre Dame 1
Bubble teams are cheering for conference champion Notre Dame to win the automatic bid. ND and St. John's (both have a loss) will be playing another game for the right to face Louisville for the automatic bid. With Connecticut having been eliminated in three games, it looks like the only real chance of an at-large bid from the Big East lies with Notre Dame.
(#98) Coastal Carolina 3 (#19) Winthrop 1 (T 6th)
With conference champion (#69, .542) Birmingham-Southern having been eliminated in two games, bubble teams are cheering for Winthrop to secure the automatic bid. But this is an elimination game and Liberty is undefeated in the tournament thus far. Anyone other than Winthrop winning the automatic bid removes a bid from the at-large pool as Winthrop is a lock.
(#7) California State-Fullerton at (#44, .563) Long Beach State
College baseball fans can catch this one on CSTV tonight. The Dirtbags are on the bubble for an at-large bid and could really use a couple of wins against the conference champion Titans. A sweep by CSF could will put an at-large bid in serious jeopardy for the Dirtbags as they are currently only five games above .500.
(#65, .546) California-Riverside at (#41, .569) California-Irvine
3rd place Irvine is currently a bubble-in squad. But a poor performance this weekend can lose the at-large bid for the Anteaters.
(#66, .544) James Madison at (#48, .557) North Carolina-Wilmington
The Colonial Athletic Conference is an absolute mess. Conference champion James Madison has been playing very well as of late. But their RPI currently has them as a bubble-out. This is a key game of undefeated teams and will pave the way for the automatic bid. 5th place North Carolina-Wilmington must make the finals to even be considered for an at-large bid. 2nd place (#54, .555) Old Dominion went two and out and is now sweating. Losing six of their last seven games leaves them out of the NCAA Tournament in my opinion.
(#27) Tulane vs. (#52, .555) East Carolina
This elimination game winner must defeat Houston twice to make the finals. The Cajuns want a Tulane win here as the Cajuns are competing with 5th place East Carolina for an at-large bid.
(#86) Ball State 5 (#50, .566) Kent State 4
This was a game of undefeated squads. Conference champion Kent State is the only possible at-large squad in this MAC. Bubble-teams need Kent State to win three consecutive games to win the automatic bid. Of course, with another loss today, Kent State might not make the field. Kent State's RPI tomorrow morning will be a large part of the story.
(#235) Western Illinois vs. (#55, .554) Oral Roberts
Bubble-teams would feel safer with Conference champion (#55, .554) Oral Roberts winning the at-large bid. Although, losing to any of their upcoming opponents would likely destroy their RPI. This game features the only undefeated teams left in the four team Mid-Continent Tournament.
(#72, .541) Evansville at (#45, .562) Wichita State
This is an elimination game between the conference champions and what was going into the tournament, the MVC's most likely chance at an at-large bid (3rd palce Wichita State). Wichita State winning is probably the best case scenario for the Cajuns. Especially considering that Evansville beat the Cajuns in a single game this season. After adding in the conference tournament games, Evansville could have the third best record in the conference. Undefeated second place (#51, .556) Missouri State is making a strong case for an at-large bid should they not win the automatic. The Bears finished only 1/2 game back of Evansville in the regular season.
(#199) California-Davis at (#39, .572) Stanford
5th place Stanford is likely in the tournament. But a serious fall against UC-Davis could put them in jeopardy.
(#115) Washington State at (#74, .540) Washington
The NCAA has given the Huskies a bid with a lower RPI in the past. But that was in years when Washington finished considerably better than tied for 6th in the Pac 10 (also tied for last place). The Huskies likely need a sweep to be in contention.
(#5) Alabama vs. (#36, .573) Louisiana State
A win by LSU over conference champion Alabama in this elimination game them into the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are likely already in, despite what happens today. Of course, (#37, .572) Mississippi State has been sitting in the bleachers sweating Selection Monday.
(#23) College of Charleston vs. (#20) Elon
This feature game of undefeated squads will place one of these at-large locks into the driver seat and the other still has a chance to make the finals. As long as one of these two teams wins the automatic bids, bubble-teams can breathe easy. Elon won the regular season title.
(#17) Pepperdine at (#53, .555) San Francisco
San Francisco hosts Pepperdine in the best-of-three championship series, since they win the regular season tiebreaker (head-to-head). Pepperdine is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. San Francisco (as conference champion) is likely in as well, but consecutive losses may make things interesting. (#58, .553) San Diego is sweating Selection Monday but has some nice wins to its credit this season (sweep of Texas, 1-0 vs. Vanderbilt and Kansas, 2/3 at Houston, single wins over Pepperdine and San Francisco).
(#32, .575) Hawaii vs. (#142) Nevada
(#93) San Jose State at (#33, .574) Fresno State
As long as Hawaii or conference champion Fresno State wins the automatic bid, bubble teams are safe. Both Hawaii and Fresno State won their opening games in this six-team double-elimination format.
Brian
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
There are a number of conference tournaments that are not going in the Cajuns' favor, with a few that are. This is an addendum to the earlier post in this thread that describes who the Cajuns should be pulling for and why.
At the top of the list is what is happening in the Big XII. Missouri shutout Oklahoma 11-0 today and is sitting pretty after wins over likely #1 seeds Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Although the Tigers finished 7th in the Big XII with a 12-15 record and were considered dead until recently, they are playing extremely well in the Big XII Tournament and are winners of six straight (including a sweep over Texas). They will play Kansas in pool play tomorrow. Another bubble team, #6 seed Kansas, defeated Oklahoma in the tournament opener and is leading Oklahoma State 8-5 in the bottom of the 6th. At this point, Cajun fans need to hope that the Big XII does not place seven teams in the tournament. Five teams has been the consensus projection until now! Baylor, which was considered by many to be a lock, could now be in some hot water with a loss to Texas Tech in pool play. A loss tomorrow would have the Bears losing all three games in the Big XII Tournament and six consecutive. Baylor (#5 seed) tied Kansas for 5th place in the Big XII with a 13-14 record. Three losses in the Big XII Tournament puts Baylor at 13-17 in conference games. Baylor will probably have a pRPI in the low to mid 30's tomorrow. A loss to Texas Tech could put them around 40.
Notre Dame will play Louisville in a single game tomorrow for the Big East automatic bid. A Louisville win over a Notre Dame team that has played one more game than the Cardinals will cost bubble teams an at-large bid. Notre Dame will be awarded an at-large bid if required.
In the Big Ten, the Ohio State - Minnesota winner will be in the catbird seat for the Big Ten automatic bid. Conference champion Michigan will need to win three consecutive games to win the automatic bid. I have a strong feeling that the NCAA will award a snow belt at-large bid to the Big Ten champion Wolverines if required. A second Big XII bid is very bad news for the Cajuns and other bubble teams.
WInthrop staved off elimination in the Big South Tournament today with a late inning rally over Coastal Carolina, eliminating the host Chanticleers. But the NCAA Tournament lock Eagles must win two more games to win the automatic bid. Else, bubble teams lose another at-large bid. Conference champion Birmingham-Southern is a bubble-out team after going 0-2 in the conference tournament. Birmingham Southern also announced today that they will be dropping their Div. I program and moving down to Div. III. I really do not see the NCAA awarding an at-large bid to the Panthers in light of this.
UNC-Wilmington is in the driver's seat after posting a major comeback (down by seven runs late) over conference champion James Madison. Although the Seahawks finished in 5th place of the CAA, their RPI has them on the bubble. I think at this point, Cajun fans need to cheer for UNC-Wilmington to win the automatic bid. James Madison (66 pRPI) losing to Virgnia Commonwealth would also help. Second place Old Dominion really hurt their chances after going 0-2 in the CAA Tournament.
Fifth place East Carolina being eliminated by Tulane in the CUSA Tournament helped the Cajuns today. But the Pirates, who went 1-2 in the tournament, are still in competition for an at-large bid after a win over Tulane and losses to Houston and Tulane.
MAC champion Kent State (pRPI 50), must win three consecutive games to win the MAc automatic bid. It may be preferable for Kent State to be eliminated in their next game, with the hope that their RPI falls enough with the last two losses such that they are near 60.
The MVC is a mess. Conference champion Evansville is still alive after eliminating Wichita State. Evansville must defeat second place Missouri State twice to win the automatic bid. Many projections had a single team from the MVC making the field (Wichita State). Now, there is a decent chance for three teams.
Alabama leads LSU 6-3 in the top of the 8th. But it is likely that LSU is already in the tournament.
Fresno State and Hawaii are still undefeated in the WAC Tournament. One of these teams must win the automatic bid. So far, so good.
It is now looking like it will be extremely important for Troy to win the Sun Belt automatic bid. A Middle Tennessee or Florida International bid could be the Cajuns' bid. I will need to see the pRPI numbers tomorrow, but I do believe that Louisiana is positioned as the second Sun Belt at-large school for reasons cited in earlier posts. I am speculating that the RPI differential will be under 15 spots.
Folks, this one is going to be tight. The worksheet will be interesting over the next couple of days. This will undoubtedly be the most difficult projections I have attempted (harder than 2002). I thought last season was the easiest.
Brian
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Well, the pRPI differential this morning is exactly at 15 spots. But there could still be movement with two more days of play remaining. Cajun fans should be pulling for Vanderbilt, Hawaii, UC Irvine, and other teams within the vicinity of South Alabama. Losses by Kent State, Oral Roberts, Missouri State, San Francisco, UNC-Wilmington, and Missouri helps the Cajuns. Southern California and Texas Tech are threats to pass the Cajuns in RPI. Ironically, Texas Tech could help the Cajuns by saddling Baylor with a third conference tournament loss and six consecutive conference losses (finishing 13-17 in conference games). Such a loss makes things tight for the Bears. But such a win for Texas Tech could vault them ahead of the Cajuns in pRPI, which could widen the gap with USA.
30 0.579 34 19 34 19 Arizona State
31 0.576 34 24 34 24 Baylor
32 0.575 41 16 41 16 Fresno State
33 0.574 37 23 40 23 Kansas
34 0.572 35 21 35 21 Mississippi State
35 0.571 35 23 35 23 Vanderbilt
36 0.571 35 24 35 24 Louisiana State
37 0.571 40 14 41 14 Hawaii
38 0.570 38 19 38 19 South Alabama
39 0.570 38 21 38 21 Southern Mississippi
40 0.570 35 21 35 21 UC Irvine
Division I Overall
Rank Rating W L W L Team
41 0.566 30 24 30 24 Stanford
42 0.565 28 28 28 28 Florida
43 0.561 42 17 42 17 Jacksonville
44 0.560 29 25 29 25 Long Beach State
45 0.560 43 15 44 15 Notre Dame
46 0.560 43 20 44 20 Wichita State
47 0.559 31 24 31 24 Missouri
48 0.559 40 19 40 19 North Carolina-Wilmington
49 0.558 38 19 38 19 San Francisco
50 0.557 33 20 33 20 Missouri State
51 0.556 34 14 37 14 Oral Roberts
52 0.555 35 18 37 18 Kent State
53 0.555 39 20 39 20 Louisiana-Lafayette
54 0.554 33 26 33 26 East Carolina
55 0.554 39 17 39 17 Old Dominion
56 0.554 25 31 25 31 Southern California
57 0.552 26 30 26 30 Maryland
58 0.552 28 25 31 25 Texas Tech
59 0.551 32 23 32 23 San Diego
60 0.548 39 19 39 19 Michigan
Brian
& Hooch
Ragin' Cajuns Rock
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Thanks Brian that sure is a lot to digest. How you do it I do not know. Does raginpagin pay you? They should.
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Some additional data to consider in evaluating Louisiana and South Alabama ...
Note that there are some teams on the respective schedules that are on the fence in the various pRPI brackets. As such, these W-L records within the RPI brackets could easily change in the next couple of days. Also note that the official RPI figures could be slightly different.
Current pRPI:
Louisiana #53, .555
South Alabama #38, .570
Head-to-Head:
Louisiana 2-2
South Alabama 2-2
Last 10 games played:
Louisiana 6-4
South Alabama 6-4
Last 20 games played:
Louisiana 13-7
South Alabama 16-4
Last 30 games played:
Louisiana 22-8
South Alabama 21-9
W-L vs. pRPI Top 25
Louisiana 2-1
South Alabama 2-6
W-L vs. pRPI Top 50
Louisiana 4-3
South Alabama 4-10
W-L vs. pRPI Top 100
Louisiana 14-13
South Alabama 16-16
W-L vs. pRPI TOP 150
Louisiana 22-19
South Alabama 25-19
W-L vs. pRPI < 150
Louisiana 17-1 (guess who the loss was against)
South Alabama 13-0
Overall Conference Record:
Louisiana 21-7 (19-5 regular season, 2nd place | 2-2 Conference Tournament)
South Alabama 17-9 (16-7 regular season, 3rd place | 1-2 Conference Tournament)
Conference Common Opponents:
Louisiana 19-5
South Alabama 15-7
Non-Conference Common Opponents: (Nicholls State, Southeastern Louisiana)
Louisiana 4-0
South Alabama 5-0
Notes:
1) South Alabama has played a tougher Top 50 schedule, which is already reflected in the RPI.
2) South Alabama had the cushy part of its conference schedule in the last twenty games, while Louisiana had the toughest part of its schedule during this stretch.
One thing for sure, we will know whether or not the new Selection Committee chair and Committee as a whole is a slave to the RPI (provided one of Louisiana and South Alabama makes the field and the other stays home).
Brian
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Some positive results for the Cajuns today ...
Troy leads Middle Tennessee 4-0 in the top of the 3rd. Matt Scott is pitching on three days' rest.
Notre Dame is leading Louisville 3-0 in the top of the fourth with the winner earning the Big East automatic bid. This game is crucial for the Cajuns' at-large hopes.
Some good and some bad ...
Baylor likely assured itself of an at-large bid by breaking its five game losing streak and winning a Big XII Conference Tournament game today (1-2) with a 5-3 win over Texas Tech. The bright side is that Texas Tech will not leap the Cajuns in pRPI. But the Big XII may place seven teams in the NCAA Tournament instead of just five. At least six seems a sure bet.
Georgia rallied for four runs in the bottom of the ninth and defeated Vanderbilt 5-4 today. South Alabama (#38, .570) could leap Vanderbilt (#35, .571) in the pRPI. It will be close. We will see how much a loss to Georgia (#7, .612) will affect Vanderbilt's rating of .571.
Brian
Louisiana Fan
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Brian you are the MAN!!! I wish I knew half of what you know about college baseball.
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Mom, is that you again posting on the message boards again?
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Notre Dame just defeated Louisiville 7-0 to win the Big East automatic bid. This was desperately needed by the Cajuns.
Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee is coming back on Troy scoring six unanswered runs. Troy leads 7-6 after six innings.
Brian
Louisiana Fan
Ragin' Cajuns Fan for Sure
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
10-6 Troy wins... hopefully that will help the Cajuns....
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
Note that Louisiana is #51 and South Alabama #36 in the SEBaseball.com Adjusted RPI. I believe this to be slightly more accurate than that of Boyd Nation's pRPI. But both are good.
Brian
Ragin' Cajuns #1 Fan
Re: Cajuns on the bubble ...
In the not so good category ...
Ball State defeated MAC regular season champion Kent State for the MAC automatic bid 7-4. Kent State defeated Miami-Ohio earlier in the day and was thus 1-1 today. Kent State's RPI will be tight w/respect to that of the Cajuns. They are also conference champions.
Liberty upset Winthrop in the Big South Tournament to win the automatic bid. Winthrop is a lock for an at-large bid. Regular season champion Birmingham-Southern is likely out of the tournament.
In the MVC, Conference champion Evansville defeated 2nd place Missouri State to force a second game for the MVC automatic bid. I think at this point, Cajun fans should root for Evansville. 3rd place Wichita State is also vying for a bid.
In the good category ...
WAC champion Fresno State is in the tournament finals undefeated and must be beaten twice tomorrow to wrest the automatic bid from the Bulldogs. At-large lock Hawaii is still in the field as well. Things are looking good for the Cajuns here.
Brian
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