2006 Ragin' Cajuns Baseball RPI

[GoneGolfin]

Brian I love the work you do and your in depth analysis, but I need you to get me over a hangup.

In my opinion RPI cannot tell you who the best team is.

What it can tell you is who has taken the most highly regarded tests.

It seems to me that if the worst team in the country played each of the top 25 RPI teams twice and lost every one they could still have a top 20 RPI

Conversely if the NY Yankees could get into the Southland and played SWAC and MEAC teams all year their RPI would say they were no good.

Please adjust my thinking. Thanks

Just to clarify, I despise the RPI. It is a horrible rating system that should be junked. As a software professional, I am not convinced that you can design a reasonable mathematical rating system that is better than what the subjective human process can produce.

I use the RPI (pRPI) in my discussion only because it is so influential in the NCAA Selection process. If you want to project accurately, you need to understand the tools that the NCAA Selection Committee uses and how they use them.

I agree that the RPI cannot tell you who the best team is.

It does tell you on average how a given team would perform (W/L %) against an average schedule. But only if you have a proper distribution of scheduled games. Of course, if you have a complete distribution of scheduled games (balanced), you do not need the RPI because you could simply compare the W/L records (%).

If the worst team in the country played each of the Top 25 RPI teams twice and lost every game, they would not have a Top 25 RPI, much less a Top 20 RPI one. But they may (likely) very well have a higher rating than otherwise deserved. That same team could lose every game to the 26 -> 50 teams. But it would be better off in the ratings had they lost every game to the Top 25 RPI teams.

The biggest problem with the RPI in baseball is that even with the larger sample size (larger is better for RPI), play is still highly interregional and will get worse with the new shortened season and common start date looming. In other words, the least connective the schedules are, the more innaccurate the RPI results.

An example ...

Pool A
1. Rice (6-0)
2. Texas (4-2)
3. Clemson (2-4)
4. LSU (0-6)

Pool B
1. Bethune Cookman (6-0)
2. Delaware State (3-3)
3. Iona (2-4)
4. Alabama State (1-5)

The number of games above is purely arbitrary and be scaled to any desire. The important thing to note here is that there is no inter-pool play. Each team within a given pool plays each team in the same pool twice. What would you expect the RPI results to be?

In this example, Bethune Cookman and Rice would be tied for the #1 RPI position. Texas would be #3, Delware State #4, Clemson and Iona tied for #5, Alabama State #7, and LSU #8.

But if LSU were in Pool B, they could very well go undefeated.

In other words, with no connectivity and a completely distributed schedule, RPI would be the same as winning %.

Now this is obviously an exaggeration to illustrate a point. But you can see how in an imperfectly connected system, RPI begins to demonstrate its flaws depending on the severity of the unconnectivity.

Brian

[Square Head]

"Just to clarify, I despise the RPI. It is a horrible rating system that should be junked. As a software professional, I am not convinced that you can design a reasonable mathematical rating system that is better than what the subjective human process can produce."

That is why the NCAA uses the RPI system, to protect the big boys.
jmo

Don

[DeadRed]

"Just to clarify, I despise the RPI. It is a horrible rating system that should be junked. As a software professional, I am not convinced that you can design a reasonable mathematical rating system that is better than what the subjective human process can produce."

That is why the NCAA uses the RPI system, to protect the big boys.
jmo

Don

Exactly. The RPI is used to protect the bigger conferences and then seed the other conferences always against a number 1,2, or 3.

The RPI was used to finally, in essence, break the Lady Techsters program. They were ranked high but RPIed low. Time after time they have to beat a top 10-15 team just to advance. For the most part since Tech lost the National Champ. game to NC in 94 the seedings have not been in their favor year after year after year. Ranked high-seeded low.

Now, they are not what they used to be. (and the coach retired, but the downfall was prior to his departure)

Sounds alot what is happening to a softball program we know. Ranked high - seeded low.

[Turbine]

If the worst team in the country played each of the Top 25 RPI teams twice and lost every game, they would not have a Top 25 RPI, much less a Top 20 RPI one. But they may (likely) very well have a higher rating than otherwise deserved. That same team could lose every game to the 26 -> 50 teams. But it would be better off in the ratings had they lost every game to the Top 25 RPI teams.

Lets say every opponent of "worst team" went undefeated. Would not this alone give "worst team" an RPI of .500

[gorcajun]

It does tell you on average how a given team would perform (W/L %) against an average schedule. But only if you have a proper distribution of scheduled games. Of course, if you have a complete distribution of scheduled games (balanced), you do not need the RPI because you could simply compare the W/L records (%).


Seems like I have heard about successful win/loss percentages before?

[ulforlife]

As we can see below, the Texas Tech loss to Oklahoma State (OSU swept TT this weekend) has vaulted the Cajuns cleanly into the #48 spot entering the SBC Tournament.

Hey Brian...

what is the Cajuns RPI now after winning the first game to Arkansas State and how much to you think it would go up with a win against Middle Tennessee?

[GoneGolfin]

Hey Brian...

what is the Cajuns RPI now after winning the first game to Arkansas State and how much to you think it would go up with a win against Middle Tennessee?

Louisiana is sitting at #49, after having been surpassed by Notre Dame.

41 0.569 34 21 34 21 UC Irvine
42 0.568 42 15 42 15 Jacksonville
43 0.566 28 28 28 28 Florida
44 0.563 29 24 29 24 Long Beach State
45 0.562 42 19 43 19 Wichita State
46 0.559 39 16 39 16 Old Dominion
47 0.559 42 14 43 14 Notre Dame
48 0.558 25 30 25 30 Southern California
49 0.557 38 18 38 18 Louisiana-Lafayette
50 0.557 30 24 30 24 Missouri
51 0.556 33 24 33 24 East Carolina
52 0.556 38 19 38 19 North Carolina-Wilmington
53 0.555 37 19 37 19 San Francisco
54 0.555 26 30 26 30 Maryland
55 0.553 31 20 31 20 Missouri State
56 0.553 28 24 31 24 Texas Tech
57 0.553 34 17 36 17 Kent State
58 0.553 32 23 32 23 San Diego
59 0.552 32 14 35 14 Oral Roberts
60 0.552 39 17 39 17 Connecticut

Should the Cajuns defeat Middle Tennessee, I expect their rating to be at least .558 or .559 (currently .557). But where they will rank depends on how other teams do around them. See my post in another thread concerning how other school's in the vicinity of the Cajuns (w/ respect to at-large bids) are faring today (and yesterday).

Old Dominion losing today will help. Should the Cajuns win, I expect they will surpass Old Dominion. Notre Dame does not play today. I also expect the Cajuns to jump USC with a win today. Provided Wichita State holds on and wins today and East Carolina does not upset Houston tonight, I see the Cajuns likely being tied with Notre Dame (or just behind them) and positioned at about #47 (with Notre Dame at #46). But I am just guestimating and not running actual numbers.

[ulforlife]

thanks man, im trying to learn this whole RPI thing, you make it MUCH easier to follow and i think i can see how it plays out... best of luck to the cajuns, glass is going to take care of business

[GoneGolfin]

The ranking in parentheses is Boyd Nation's pRPI and was taken before today’s games. Louisiana currently has a pRPI of 57 (.553 rating) before today’s win over South Alabama.

(#57, .553) Louisiana vs. (#73) Middle Tennessee
The win over South Alabama was huge for the Cajuns. In my mind, it places the Cajuns ahead of the Jaguars in the eyes of the Selection Committee because ...

- The Cajuns evened the season series with South Alabama (with three of the four games at South Alabama and one a neutral site)
- The Cajuns finished 2 1/2 games ahead of South Alabama in the regular season standings
- The Cajuns finished ahead of South Alabama in the conference tournament
- The RPI gap will be closed some more after today

That said, the Cajuns still have work to do and are competing against other schools in the race for an at-large bid. I think that an appearance in the finals (two wins over Middle Tennessee) will seal an at-large bid for the Cajuns, no matter who wins the automatic bid. A single-win over Middle Tennessee is big, but still not a lock for the Cajuns. It does get the Cajuns to the 40 win mark. A loss this afternoon for the Cajuns will make things rather interesting come Monday. In the event that the Cajuns do not make the finals, Troy winning the automatic bid certainly helps. But I do not think this precludes the Cajuns from an at-large bid (it simply costs one of the available at-large bids in the pool). The NCAA Selection committee may have a hard time leaving both South Alabama and Louisiana home while inviting only two Sun Belt teams.

Some of the other games that impacts the Cajuns' chances at an at-large bid follows ...

(#96) Mercer 7 (#43, .565) Jacksonville 6
Jacksonville has been eliminated from the Atlantic Sun Tournament and has a good shot at an at-large bid, being that their RPI will likely still be Top 50 and are conference champions. But the 1-2 conference tournament does not help the Dolphins and they are now on the bubble. This result is definitely not good for bubble teams.

(#101) Minnesota 6 (#60, .550) Michigan 2
Michigan is now in the loser's bracket, while Minnesota and (#88, .532) Ohio State are undefeated. This loss hurts bubble teams as Michigan (conference champion) has an excellent chance at a snow-belt at-large bid. Although, Minnesota beating Michigan helps the UL RPI and should help the Cajuns' record against the Top 100 RPI.

(#88, .502) Ohio State vs. (#101) Minnesota
The winner here is in the driver's seat for the Big Ten automatic bid. Minnesota continuing to win helps the UL RPI.

(#9) Oklahoma vs. (#49, .556) Missouri
7th place Missouri has come back from the dead to challenge for an at-large bid. The win over potential #2 seed Oklahoma State on Wednesday was huge. Missouri is 1-0 in pool play while Oklahoma is 0-1. Cajun fans should be cheering for a Sooner win.

(#14) Oklahoma State vs. (#40, .571) Kansas
6th place Kansas had a huge win over Oklahoma Wednesday and is 1-0 in pool play. Both Kansas and Missouri are causing problems for other bubble teams. My gut feel is that only one of the two make the postseason. But if both keep winning, it could be both. Cajuns fans should be cheering for an Oklahoma State win.

(#78, .539) St. John's 10 (#47, .558) Notre Dame 1
Bubble teams are cheering for conference champion Notre Dame to win the automatic bid. ND and St. John's (both have a loss) will be playing another game for the right to face Louisville for the automatic bid. With Connecticut having been eliminated in three games, it looks like the only real chance of an at-large bid from the Big East lies with Notre Dame.

(#98) Coastal Carolina 3 (#19) Winthrop 1 (T 6th)
With conference champion (#69, .542) Birmingham-Southern having been eliminated in two games, bubble teams are cheering for Winthrop to secure the automatic bid. But this is an elimination game and Liberty is undefeated in the tournament thus far. Anyone other than Winthrop winning the automatic bid removes a bid from the at-large pool as Winthrop is a lock.

(#7) California State-Fullerton at (#44, .563) Long Beach State
College baseball fans can catch this one on CSTV tonight. The Dirtbags are on the bubble for an at-large bid and could really use a couple of wins against the conference champion Titans. A sweep by CSF could will put an at-large bid in serious jeopardy for the Dirtbags as they are currently only five games above .500.

(#65, .546) California-Riverside at (#41, .569) California-Irvine
3rd place Irvine is currently a bubble-in squad. But a poor performance this weekend can lose the at-large bid for the Anteaters.

(#66, .544) James Madison at (#48, .557) North Carolina-Wilmington
The Colonial Athletic Conference is an absolute mess. Conference champion James Madison has been playing very well as of late. But their RPI currently has them as a bubble-out. This is a key game of undefeated teams and will pave the way for the automatic bid. 5th place North Carolina-Wilmington must make the finals to even be considered for an at-large bid. 2nd place (#54, .555) Old Dominion went two and out and is now sweating. Losing six of their last seven games leaves them out of the NCAA Tournament in my opinion.

(#27) Tulane vs. (#52, .555) East Carolina
This elimination game winner must defeat Houston twice to make the finals. The Cajuns want a Tulane win here as the Cajuns are competing with 5th place East Carolina for an at-large bid.

(#86) Ball State 5 (#50, .566) Kent State 4
This was a game of undefeated squads. Conference champion Kent State is the only possible at-large squad in this MAC. Bubble-teams need Kent State to win three consecutive games to win the automatic bid. Of course, with another loss today, Kent State might not make the field. Kent State's RPI tomorrow morning will be a large part of the story.

(#235) Western Illinois vs. (#55, .554) Oral Roberts
Bubble-teams would feel safer with Conference champion (#55, .554) Oral Roberts winning the at-large bid. Although, losing to any of their upcoming opponents would likely destroy their RPI. This game features the only undefeated teams left in the four team Mid-Continent Tournament.

(#72, .541) Evansville at (#45, .562) Wichita State
This is an elimination game between the conference champions and what was going into the tournament, the MVC's most likely chance at an at-large bid (3rd palce Wichita State). Wichita State winning is probably the best case scenario for the Cajuns. Especially considering that Evansville beat the Cajuns in a single game this season. After adding in the conference tournament games, Evansville could have the third best record in the conference. Undefeated second place (#51, .556) Missouri State is making a strong case for an at-large bid should they not win the automatic. The Bears finished only 1/2 game back of Evansville in the regular season.

(#199) California-Davis at (#39, .572) Stanford
5th place Stanford is likely in the tournament. But a serious fall against UC-Davis could put them in jeopardy.

(#115) Washington State at (#74, .540) Washington
The NCAA has given the Huskies a bid with a lower RPI in the past. But that was in years when Washington finished considerably better than tied for 6th in the Pac 10 (also tied for last place). The Huskies likely need a sweep to be in contention.

(#5) Alabama vs. (#36, .573) Louisiana State
A win by LSU over conference champion Alabama in this elimination game them into the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are likely already in, despite what happens today. Of course, (#37, .572) Mississippi State has been sitting in the bleachers sweating Selection Monday.

(#23) College of Charleston vs. (#20) Elon
This feature game of undefeated squads will place one of these at-large locks into the driver seat and the other still has a chance to make the finals. As long as one of these two teams wins the automatic bids, bubble-teams can breathe easy. Elon won the regular season title.

(#17) Pepperdine at (#53, .555) San Francisco
San Francisco hosts Pepperdine in the best-of-three championship series, since they win the regular season tiebreaker (head-to-head). Pepperdine is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. San Francisco (as conference champion) is likely in as well, but consecutive losses may make things interesting. (#58, .553) San Diego is sweating Selection Monday but has some nice wins to its credit this season (sweep of Texas, 1-0 vs. Vanderbilt and Kansas, 2/3 at Houston, single wins over Pepperdine and San Francisco).

(#32, .575) Hawaii vs. (#142) Nevada
(#93) San Jose State at (#33, .574) Fresno State
As long as Hawaii or conference champion Fresno State wins the automatic bid, bubble teams are safe. Both Hawaii and Fresno State won their opening games in this six-team double-elimination format.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

There are a number of conference tournaments that are not going in the Cajuns' favor, with a few that are. This is an addendum to the earlier post in this thread that describes who the Cajuns should be pulling for and why.

At the top of the list is what is happening in the Big XII. Missouri shutout Oklahoma 11-0 today and is sitting pretty after wins over likely #1 seeds Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Although the Tigers finished 7th in the Big XII with a 12-15 record and were considered dead until recently, they are playing extremely well in the Big XII Tournament and are winners of six straight (including a sweep over Texas). They will play Kansas in pool play tomorrow. Another bubble team, #6 seed Kansas, defeated Oklahoma in the tournament opener and is leading Oklahoma State 8-5 in the bottom of the 6th. At this point, Cajun fans need to hope that the Big XII does not place seven teams in the tournament. Five teams has been the consensus projection until now! Baylor, which was considered by many to be a lock, could now be in some hot water with a loss to Texas Tech in pool play. A loss tomorrow would have the Bears losing all three games in the Big XII Tournament and six consecutive. Baylor (#5 seed) tied Kansas for 5th place in the Big XII with a 13-14 record. Three losses in the Big XII Tournament puts Baylor at 13-17 in conference games. Baylor will probably have a pRPI in the low to mid 30's tomorrow. A loss to Texas Tech could put them around 40.

Notre Dame will play Louisville in a single game tomorrow for the Big East automatic bid. A Louisville win over a Notre Dame team that has played one more game than the Cardinals will cost bubble teams an at-large bid. Notre Dame will be awarded an at-large bid if required.

In the Big Ten, the Ohio State - Minnesota winner will be in the catbird seat for the Big Ten automatic bid. Conference champion Michigan will need to win three consecutive games to win the automatic bid. I have a strong feeling that the NCAA will award a snow belt at-large bid to the Big Ten champion Wolverines if required. A second Big XII bid is very bad news for the Cajuns and other bubble teams.

WInthrop staved off elimination in the Big South Tournament today with a late inning rally over Coastal Carolina, eliminating the host Chanticleers. But the NCAA Tournament lock Eagles must win two more games to win the automatic bid. Else, bubble teams lose another at-large bid. Conference champion Birmingham-Southern is a bubble-out team after going 0-2 in the conference tournament. Birmingham Southern also announced today that they will be dropping their Div. I program and moving down to Div. III. I really do not see the NCAA awarding an at-large bid to the Panthers in light of this.

UNC-Wilmington is in the driver's seat after posting a major comeback (down by seven runs late) over conference champion James Madison. Although the Seahawks finished in 5th place of the CAA, their RPI has them on the bubble. I think at this point, Cajun fans need to cheer for UNC-Wilmington to win the automatic bid. James Madison (66 pRPI) losing to Virgnia Commonwealth would also help. Second place Old Dominion really hurt their chances after going 0-2 in the CAA Tournament.

Fifth place East Carolina being eliminated by Tulane in the CUSA Tournament helped the Cajuns today. But the Pirates, who went 1-2 in the tournament, are still in competition for an at-large bid after a win over Tulane and losses to Houston and Tulane.

MAC champion Kent State (pRPI 50), must win three consecutive games to win the MAc automatic bid. It may be preferable for Kent State to be eliminated in their next game, with the hope that their RPI falls enough with the last two losses such that they are near 60.

The MVC is a mess. Conference champion Evansville is still alive after eliminating Wichita State. Evansville must defeat second place Missouri State twice to win the automatic bid. Many projections had a single team from the MVC making the field (Wichita State). Now, there is a decent chance for three teams.

Alabama leads LSU 6-3 in the top of the 8th. But it is likely that LSU is already in the tournament.

Fresno State and Hawaii are still undefeated in the WAC Tournament. One of these teams must win the automatic bid. So far, so good.

It is now looking like it will be extremely important for Troy to win the Sun Belt automatic bid. A Middle Tennessee or Florida International bid could be the Cajuns' bid. I will need to see the pRPI numbers tomorrow, but I do believe that Louisiana is positioned as the second Sun Belt at-large school for reasons cited in earlier posts. I am speculating that the RPI differential will be under 15 spots.

Folks, this one is going to be tight. The worksheet will be interesting over the next couple of days. This will undoubtedly be the most difficult projections I have attempted (harder than 2002). I thought last season was the easiest.

Brian

The ranking in parentheses is Boyd Nation's pRPI and was taken before today’s games. Louisiana currently has a pRPI of 57 (.553 rating) before today’s win over South Alabama.

(#57, .553) Louisiana vs. (#73) Middle Tennessee
The win over South Alabama was huge for the Cajuns. In my mind, it places the Cajuns ahead of the Jaguars in the eyes of the Selection Committee because ...

- The Cajuns evened the season series with South Alabama (with three of the four games at South Alabama and one a neutral site)
- The Cajuns finished 2 1/2 games ahead of South Alabama in the regular season standings
- The Cajuns finished ahead of South Alabama in the conference tournament
- The RPI gap will be closed some more after today

That said, the Cajuns still have work to do and are competing against other schools in the race for an at-large bid. I think that an appearance in the finals (two wins over Middle Tennessee) will seal an at-large bid for the Cajuns, no matter who wins the automatic bid. A single-win over Middle Tennessee is big, but still not a lock for the Cajuns. It does get the Cajuns to the 40 win mark. A loss this afternoon for the Cajuns will make things rather interesting come Monday. In the event that the Cajuns do not make the finals, Troy winning the automatic bid certainly helps. But I do not think this precludes the Cajuns from an at-large bid (it simply costs one of the available at-large bids in the pool). The NCAA Selection committee may have a hard time leaving both South Alabama and Louisiana home while inviting only two Sun Belt teams.

Some of the other games that impacts the Cajuns' chances at an at-large bid follows ...

(#96) Mercer 7 (#43, .565) Jacksonville 6
Jacksonville has been eliminated from the Atlantic Sun Tournament and has a good shot at an at-large bid, being that their RPI will likely still be Top 50 and are conference champions. But the 1-2 conference tournament does not help the Dolphins and they are now on the bubble. This result is definitely not good for bubble teams.

(#101) Minnesota 6 (#60, .550) Michigan 2
Michigan is now in the loser's bracket, while Minnesota and (#88, .532) Ohio State are undefeated. This loss hurts bubble teams as Michigan (conference champion) has an excellent chance at a snow-belt at-large bid. Although, Minnesota beating Michigan helps the UL RPI and should help the Cajuns' record against the Top 100 RPI.

(#88, .502) Ohio State vs. (#101) Minnesota
The winner here is in the driver's seat for the Big Ten automatic bid. Minnesota continuing to win helps the UL RPI.

(#9) Oklahoma vs. (#49, .556) Missouri
7th place Missouri has come back from the dead to challenge for an at-large bid. The win over potential #2 seed Oklahoma State on Wednesday was huge. Missouri is 1-0 in pool play while Oklahoma is 0-1. Cajun fans should be cheering for a Sooner win.

(#14) Oklahoma State vs. (#40, .571) Kansas
6th place Kansas had a huge win over Oklahoma Wednesday and is 1-0 in pool play. Both Kansas and Missouri are causing problems for other bubble teams. My gut feel is that only one of the two make the postseason. But if both keep winning, it could be both. Cajuns fans should be cheering for an Oklahoma State win.

(#78, .539) St. John's 10 (#47, .558) Notre Dame 1
Bubble teams are cheering for conference champion Notre Dame to win the automatic bid. ND and St. John's (both have a loss) will be playing another game for the right to face Louisville for the automatic bid. With Connecticut having been eliminated in three games, it looks like the only real chance of an at-large bid from the Big East lies with Notre Dame.

(#98) Coastal Carolina 3 (#19) Winthrop 1 (T 6th)
With conference champion (#69, .542) Birmingham-Southern having been eliminated in two games, bubble teams are cheering for Winthrop to secure the automatic bid. But this is an elimination game and Liberty is undefeated in the tournament thus far. Anyone other than Winthrop winning the automatic bid removes a bid from the at-large pool as Winthrop is a lock.

(#7) California State-Fullerton at (#44, .563) Long Beach State
College baseball fans can catch this one on CSTV tonight. The Dirtbags are on the bubble for an at-large bid and could really use a couple of wins against the conference champion Titans. A sweep by CSF could will put an at-large bid in serious jeopardy for the Dirtbags as they are currently only five games above .500.

(#65, .546) California-Riverside at (#41, .569) California-Irvine
3rd place Irvine is currently a bubble-in squad. But a poor performance this weekend can lose the at-large bid for the Anteaters.

(#66, .544) James Madison at (#48, .557) North Carolina-Wilmington
The Colonial Athletic Conference is an absolute mess. Conference champion James Madison has been playing very well as of late. But their RPI currently has them as a bubble-out. This is a key game of undefeated teams and will pave the way for the automatic bid. 5th place North Carolina-Wilmington must make the finals to even be considered for an at-large bid. 2nd place (#54, .555) Old Dominion went two and out and is now sweating. Losing six of their last seven games leaves them out of the NCAA Tournament in my opinion.

(#27) Tulane vs. (#52, .555) East Carolina
This elimination game winner must defeat Houston twice to make the finals. The Cajuns want a Tulane win here as the Cajuns are competing with 5th place East Carolina for an at-large bid.

(#86) Ball State 5 (#50, .566) Kent State 4
This was a game of undefeated squads. Conference champion Kent State is the only possible at-large squad in this MAC. Bubble-teams need Kent State to win three consecutive games to win the automatic bid. Of course, with another loss today, Kent State might not make the field. Kent State's RPI tomorrow morning will be a large part of the story.

(#235) Western Illinois vs. (#55, .554) Oral Roberts
Bubble-teams would feel safer with Conference champion (#55, .554) Oral Roberts winning the at-large bid. Although, losing to any of their upcoming opponents would likely destroy their RPI. This game features the only undefeated teams left in the four team Mid-Continent Tournament.

(#72, .541) Evansville at (#45, .562) Wichita State
This is an elimination game between the conference champions and what was going into the tournament, the MVC's most likely chance at an at-large bid (3rd palce Wichita State). Wichita State winning is probably the best case scenario for the Cajuns. Especially considering that Evansville beat the Cajuns in a single game this season. After adding in the conference tournament games, Evansville could have the third best record in the conference. Undefeated second place (#51, .556) Missouri State is making a strong case for an at-large bid should they not win the automatic. The Bears finished only 1/2 game back of Evansville in the regular season.

(#199) California-Davis at (#39, .572) Stanford
5th place Stanford is likely in the tournament. But a serious fall against UC-Davis could put them in jeopardy.

(#115) Washington State at (#74, .540) Washington
The NCAA has given the Huskies a bid with a lower RPI in the past. But that was in years when Washington finished considerably better than tied for 6th in the Pac 10 (also tied for last place). The Huskies likely need a sweep to be in contention.

(#5) Alabama vs. (#36, .573) Louisiana State
A win by LSU over conference champion Alabama in this elimination game them into the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are likely already in, despite what happens today. Of course, (#37, .572) Mississippi State has been sitting in the bleachers sweating Selection Monday.

(#23) College of Charleston vs. (#20) Elon
This feature game of undefeated squads will place one of these at-large locks into the driver seat and the other still has a chance to make the finals. As long as one of these two teams wins the automatic bids, bubble-teams can breathe easy. Elon won the regular season title.

(#17) Pepperdine at (#53, .555) San Francisco
San Francisco hosts Pepperdine in the best-of-three championship series, since they win the regular season tiebreaker (head-to-head). Pepperdine is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. San Francisco (as conference champion) is likely in as well, but consecutive losses may make things interesting. (#58, .553) San Diego is sweating Selection Monday but has some nice wins to its credit this season (sweep of Texas, 1-0 vs. Vanderbilt and Kansas, 2/3 at Houston, single wins over Pepperdine and San Francisco).

(#32, .575) Hawaii vs. (#142) Nevada
(#93) San Jose State at (#33, .574) Fresno State
As long as Hawaii or conference champion Fresno State wins the automatic bid, bubble teams are safe. Both Hawaii and Fresno State won their opening games in this six-team double-elimination format.

Brian