2006 Ragin' Cajuns Baseball RPI

[Turbine]

49 0.557 37 18 37 18 Louisiana-Lafayette

What do the 4 factors (to the right) stand for again?

What accounts for so many of the teams seeming to have redundant point factors.

Does this mean the RPI is duplicative?

Thanks

[Boomer]

What do the 4 factors (to the right) stand for again?

What accounts for so many of the teams seeming to have redundant point factors.

Does this mean the RPI is duplicative?

Thanks

Hey Mr. T---What are the brackets for the Tourn.?---Call me for a recording session!!!

[GoneGolfin]

What do the 4 factors (to the right) stand for again?

What accounts for so many of the teams seeming to have redundant point factors.

Does this mean the RPI is duplicative?

Thanks

4 factors to the right?

To the left you have the ranking, RPI rating, Division I record, and Overall record.

You can think of the RPI as simply the winning percentage that a team *should* have if every team played an equivalent strength of schedule. Thus, with an average schedule, the Cajuns would have a winning percentage of 55.7%.

Because of the way w/l records are distributed in baseball and the # of teams in the sample size, you are going to have teams clustered together at many points on the curve.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Some games to keep tabs on today that more directly affect the Cajuns ...

Louisiana is at #49 in the pRPI with a RPI rating of .557.

#60 (.550) Texas A&M at #42 (.567) Kansas
#44 (.563) Long Beach State at #63 (.548) California-Riverside
#46 (.561) Southern California at #45 (.562) Wichita State
#48 (.557) Texas Tech at #13 (.604) Oklahoma State
#251 (.426) Oakland at #53 (.555) Oral Roberts (Doubleheader)
#173 (.482) Iowa at #59 (.551) Michigan

Brian

And the optimistic scenario played out. The Cajuns vaulted Kent State and San Francisco and are tied with Texas Tech at #48. Technically, Tech may be a few ten thousandths ahead of the Cajuns at #48 with the Cajuns at #49. An Oklahoma State win over Texas Tech would vault the Cajuns ahead of Texas Tech. It would also help if Texas A&M could defeat Kansas today. There is a bit of a gap between Louisiana and Old Dominion (.004). Southern California will not factor into competing with the Cajuns for an at-large bid.

41 0.568 28 28 28 28 Florida
42 0.567 34 23 37 23 Kansas
43 0.566 33 23 33 23 Vanderbilt
44 0.563 28 24 28 24 Long Beach State
45 0.562 41 18 42 18 Wichita State
46 0.561 25 28 25 28 Southern California
47 0.561 39 15 39 15 Old Dominion
48 0.557 28 22 31 22 Texas Tech
49 0.557 37 18 37 18 Louisiana-Lafayette
50 0.556 37 19 37 19 San Francisco
51 0.556 40 14 41 14 Notre Dame
52 0.555 26 30 26 30 Maryland
53 0.555 30 14 33 14 Oral Roberts
54 0.554 32 23 32 23 San Diego
55 0.554 33 17 35 17 Kent State
56 0.553 38 16 38 16 Connecticut
57 0.552 32 24 32 24 East Carolina
58 0.552 37 19 37 19 North Carolina-Wilmington
59 0.551 37 18 37 18 Michigan
60 0.550 25 29 25 29 Texas A&M

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

Some games to keep tabs on today that more directly affect the Cajuns ...

Louisiana is at #49 in the pRPI with a RPI rating of .557.

#60 (.550) Texas A&M at #42 (.567) Kansas
#44 (.563) Long Beach State at #63 (.548) California-Riverside
#46 (.561) Southern California at #45 (.562) Wichita State
#48 (.557) Texas Tech at #13 (.604) Oklahoma State
#251 (.426) Oakland at #53 (.555) Oral Roberts (Doubleheader)
#173 (.482) Iowa at #59 (.551) Michigan

Brian

Brian if the Cajuns make the regionals where do you see them going?

[Turbine]

Brian if the Cajuns make the regionals where do you see them going?

oh OH I KNOW . . . to a Super Regional

[GoneGolfin]

Brian if the Cajuns make the regionals where do you see them going?

I have not started slotting my weekly selections into regionals yet. I will do that next weekend. But I can venture an educated guess.

Regionals in this area are likely to be ...

Rice
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Arkansas

I do not think Mississippi snags a fifth SEC regional unless they make the finals of or win the SEC Tournament. The Rebels are a #2 seed right now.

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska are all #1 seeds. I think a lot of this comes down to what happens with Baylor and Houston. Baylor cannot go to a Big XII regional and Houston cannot play at a Rice regional. If Houston is a #1 seed (currently on the fence), they are likely traveling (maybe Arizona State). If the Cougars are a #2 seed, they could be sent to Austin. Baylor is currently sitting the fence w/respect to a #2/#3 seed. I can see Baylor in Houston as a #2 or #3 seed. Thus ...

With Houston as a #2 seed in Austin, you could see the Cajuns there as a #3 seed. Facing Brad Lincoln in the opener would not be fun. If Houston is a #1, you could see LSU as a #2 (on the fence w/respect to #2/#3) in Austin facing the Cajuns in the opener.

The Rice regional could see Baylor and LSU as #2/#3 seeds in any order. With Baylor as a #2 seed in Houston, you could see the Cajuns there as a #3 seed.

Thus, both the Texas and Rice regionals would be looking for a #3 seed that avoids conference matchups. This is why I like the Cajuns either in Austin or Houston. Don't be surprised to see LSU vs. Louisiana in the first round of the Austin regional. But if they are not sent to Austin, Houston (Rice) seems to be a logical choice as well.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Each year at this time of the season, I am inevitably asked various questions concerning RPI and at-large bids. For example, "What is the lowest RPI ever to receive an at-large bid?" or "What is the highest RPI ever to be excluded from the NCAA Tournament?". Other questions center around the chances that a given team will receive an at-large bid based on how they performed in conference, out-of-conference, and their RPI.

We all know how important conference finish is to the NCAA Selection Committee. Especially conference championships. We also know that Conference Tournament performances are an important consideration. The tournament games are also added in to the regular season records to calculate a given school's total performance in conference for that season. Many times, national seeds, #1 seeds, and host regionals are determined by this.

Now, in lieu of the Cajuns' current predicament, it is interesting to go back into what I call my "interesting data" archives. The below is data concerning the NCAA Tournament since the new 64 team tournament format commenced (1999). For purposes of the RPI, I use Boyd Nation's pRPI estimates. These estimates

1) Count neutral games as road games
2) Do not count ties
3) Apply bonuses for non-conference road wins against three tiers (Top 25, Top 50, and Top 75 of the Base RPI)
4) Apply penalties for non-conference hom losses against three tiers (Bottom 25, Bottom 50, and Bottom 75 of the Base RPI)

The RPI formula used by SEBaseball.com is very similar to that of Boyd Nation's, but slightly different with respect to #1 and #2 above.

Some answers to the above questions follow ...

What is the lowest RPI to ever receive an at-large bid?
1. Washington (82) (2002)
2. San Jose State (81) (2000) (Spartans made it to the CWS)
3. Louisiana-Monroe (78) (2000)
4. Evansville (74) (2000)
5. Washington (72) (2003)
Nevada (72) (2000)

What is the highest RPI ever to be excluded from the NCAA Tournament?
1. Virginia (22) (2003)
2. Georgia Tech (25) (1999)
3. Auburn (26) (2004)
4. Georgia (27) (2005)
5. Old Dominion (28) (1999)

What is the lowest RPI to ever receive an at-large bid and not win a conference regular season championship?
1. Washington (82) (2002 - Pac Ten Tied for 2nd place)
2. Evansville (74) (2000 - MVC 2nd place)
3. Washington (72) (2003 - Pac Ten 3rd place)
4. Creighton (64) (2000 - MVC 3rd place)
5. Fresno State (63) (2001 - WAC 2nd place)

Here is a year-by-year breakdown since 1999 of some fence sitting schools that did and did not receive at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. Also included is conference regular season finish, as well as in some cases conference tournament performance.

2005
(Received at-large bids)
Louisiana (45) (Sun Belt champion, 2-2 Conference Tournament)
St. John's (59) (Big East champion, 0-2 Conference Tournament)
Creighton (48) (MVC champion, 4-2 Conference Tournament - 2nd place)
Michigan (50) (Big Ten 4th place, 1-2 Conference Tournament)

(Did not receive at-large bids)
Vanderbilt (30) (SEC 10th place)
Georgia (27) (SEC 11th place)


2004
(Received at-large bids)
George Mason (50) (Colonial Champion, 2-2 Conference Tournament)
Missouri (53) (Big XII 7th place, 3-1 Conference Tournament - 2nd)
Middle Tennessee (59) (Sun Belt co-champion and #1 seed, 3-2 Conference Tournament)
St. John's (49) (Big East T 2nd place, 1-2 Conference Tournament)
UCLA (45) (Pac 10 3rd place)
College of Charleston (48) (Southern Champion, 3-2 Conference Tournament)
Tulane (47) (CUSA T 2nd place, 0-2 Conference Tournament)

(Did not receive at-large bids)
Nebraska (31) (Big XII 8th place)
Auburn (26) (SEC 10th place)

2003
(Received at-large bids)
Rutgers (45) (Big East champion, 3-2 Conference Tournament)
Florida (32) (SEC 9th place, 13-16)
Southwest Missouri State (60) (MVC champion, 2-2 Conference Tournament)
East Carolina (52) (CUSA 5th place, 2-2 Conference Tournament)
Washington (72) (Pac 10 3rd place)
North Carolina-Wilmington (48) (Colonial 2nd place, 2-2 Conference Tournament)

(Did not receive at-large bids)
Virginia (22) (ACC 6th place)
West Virginia (38) (Big East 2nd place)

2002
(Received at-large bids)
Elon (45) (Big South 2nd place)
Washington (82) (Pac 10 T 2nd place)
Tulane (55) (CUSA 5th place)

(Did not receive at-large bids)
Mississippi (31) (SEC 9th place)
North Carolina State (39) (ACC 7th place)

2001
(Received at-large bids)
Ohio State (59) (Big Ten 1st place)
Fresno State (63) (WAC 2nd place)
Texas (51) (Big XII 3rd place)
Oklahoma State (44) (Big XII 5th place)
California (46) (Pac Ten T 3rd place)
Georgia Southern (62) (Southern 1st place)
Middle Tennessee (52) (Sun Belt T 1st place, #1 seed)

(Did not receive at-large bids)
Alabama (32) (SEC 9th place)
North Carolina (35) (ACC 6th place)

2000
(Received at-large bids)
Louisiana-Monroe (78) (Southland T 1st place)
Texas Tech (59) (Big XII 5th place)
San Jose State (81) (WAC T 1st place)
Evansville (74) (MVC 2nd place)
Florida International (46) (Sun Belt 3rd place)
Creighton (64) (MVC 3rd place)
Penn State (57) (Big Ten 2nd place)
Nevada (72) (Big West T 1st place)

(Did not receive at-large bids)
Kentucky (31) (SEC 8th place)
Georgia (29) (SEC 7th place)
Mississippi (37) (SEC 9th place)
North Carolina State (36) (ACC T 6th place)
Virginia Commonwealth (30) (Colonial 5th place)
Purdue (38) (Big Ten T 3rd place)
North Carolina-Wilmington (39) (Colonial 3rd place)

1999
(Received at-large bids)
Arizona (62) (Pac Ten 3rd place)
UCLA (54) (Pac Ten 4th place)
NE Louisiana (66) (Southland 1st place)
Nevada (45) (Big West 2nd place)
Southern California (46) (Pac Ten 2nd place)
Long Beach State (48) (Big West 3rd place)
Southwestern Louisiana (57) (Sun Belt 2nd place)

(Did not receive at-large bids)
Georgia Tech (25) (ACC 5th place)
Coastal Carolina (37) (Big South 1st place)
Old Dominion (28) (Colonial 5th place)

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Some games to keep tabs on today that more directly affect the Cajuns ...

Louisiana is at #49 in the pRPI with a RPI rating of .557.

#60 (.550) Texas A&M at #42 (.567) Kansas
#44 (.563) Long Beach State at #63 (.548) California-Riverside
#46 (.561) Southern California at #45 (.562) Wichita State
#48 (.557) Texas Tech at #13 (.604) Oklahoma State
#251 (.426) Oakland at #53 (.555) Oral Roberts (Doubleheader)
#173 (.482) Iowa at #59 (.551) Michigan

Brian

As we can see below, the Texas Tech loss to Oklahoma State (OSU swept TT this weekend) has vaulted the Cajuns cleanly into the #48 spot entering the SBC Tournament. Southern California's loss to Wichita State (WSU swept USC this weekend) brings them closer to the Cajuns. Although, USC is now guaranteed to finish without a winning record and will not be playing in the postseason.

A threat to watch ... Missouri is moving up the ratings fast after sweeping Texas this weekend. Missouri finished 12-15 in the Big XII for 7th place, a game behind Baylor (#5) and Kansas (#6). Missouri opens up the Big XII Tournament against Oklahoma State. The Cajuns could use poor conference tournament performances from Kansas and Missouri. Kansas open the conference tournament against Oklahoma.

41 0.568 28 28 28 28 Florida
42 0.568 35 23 38 23 Kansas
43 0.566 33 23 33 23 Vanderbilt
44 0.565 29 24 29 24 Long Beach State
45 0.564 42 18 43 18 Wichita State
46 0.561 39 15 39 15 Old Dominion
47 0.559 25 29 25 29 Southern California
48 0.557 37 18 37 18 Louisiana-Lafayette
49 0.556 40 14 41 14 Notre Dame
50 0.555 26 30 26 30 Maryland
51 0.555 37 19 37 19 San Francisco
52 0.555 32 14 35 14 Oral Roberts
53 0.554 28 23 31 23 Texas Tech
54 0.553 32 23 32 23 San Diego
55 0.553 29 24 29 24 Missouri
56 0.553 38 16 38 16 Connecticut
57 0.553 32 24 32 24 East Carolina
58 0.552 33 17 35 17 Kent State
59 0.552 37 19 37 19 North Carolina-Wilmington
60 0.551 38 18 38 18 Michigan

Brian

[Turbine]

Brian I love the work you do and your in depth analysis, but I need you to get me over a hangup.

In my opinion RPI cannot tell you who the best team is.

What it can tell you is who has taken the most highly regarded tests.

It seems to me that if the worst team in the country played each of the top 25 RPI teams twice and lost every one they could still have a top 20 RPI

Conversely if the NY Yankees could get into the Southland and played SWAC and MEAC teams all year their RPI would say they were no good.

Please adjust my thinking. Thanks