2006 Ragin' Cajuns Baseball RPI

[J-Town Cajun]

You are very right about winning our non-conference schelduled games. I know the conference is very important, if we win the regular season conference race we should get in, but it is not a lock. If we don't win at least 3/4 of the final non-conference games I don't think we have a chance to get an at large bid. It is almost best to lose to a conference member as it does not hurt our RPI as much as losing a non-conference game. It is also time to start watching what the Sun Belt is doing in their mid-week games.

We are currently 27-13 with 16 regular season games left. I am predicting we will need about 38 wins in the regular season to get an at-large bid. You add 2 more in the conference tourney and that will put us at 40. Then I would feel pretty safe.

Geaux Cajuns and Geaux Sun Belt!

[BirdofParadise]

You are very right about winning our non-conference schelduled games. I know the conference is very important, if we win the regular season conference race we should get in, but it is not a lock. If we don't win at least 3/4 of the final non-conference games I don't think we have a chance to get an at large bid. It is almost best to lose to a conference member as it does not hurt our RPI as much as losing a non-conference game. It is also time to start watching what the Sun Belt is doing in their mid-week games.

We are currently 27-13 with 16 regular season games left. I am predicting we will need about 38 wins in the regular season to get an at-large bid. You add 2 more in the conference tourney and that will put us at 40. Then I would feel pretty safe.

Geaux Cajuns and Geaux Sun Belt!

I have to disagree. This year the Sun Belt conference is rated 7th in the RPI. In Sun Belt history, the regular season champion has ALWAYS received a bid.even when the league was ranked 13th.

If we win the league we will be in postseason play regardless of what we do in midweek games.

That having been said, let's win those too and leave no doubt!

[DeadRed]

I have to disagree. This year the Sun Belt conference is rated 7th in the RPI. In Sun Belt history, the regular season champion has ALWAYS received a bid.even when the league was ranked 13th.

If we win the league we will be in postseason play regardless of what we do in midweek games.

That having been said, let's win those too and leave no doubt!

Today up to 49 in Warren Nolan.

[GoneGolfin]

In putting together my weekly NCAA Tournament worksheet and projections, I outlined several schools that will be competing with the Cajuns for an at-large bid (should one be needed). If you want to gauge the chances of an at-large bid provided the Cajuns do not win the automatic, it will help to follow these schools .

The schools above the ---- line are schools that I have slotted ahead of the Cajuns. The schools below the ---- line are schools I have slotted below the Cajuns.

LSU
Southern Mississippi
South Alabama
Mississippi State
Hawaii
Vanderbilt
San Francisco
East Carolina
San Diego

----

North Carolina-Wilmington
St. John's
Kansas
Texas Tech
Southern California
Washington
Birmingham Southern

One thing to note about Southern California is that they are currently 25-25 overall and have a brutal finishing schedule. Unless they turn it around quickly, they are likely finished.

The following schools are currently first in their conference and primed for the automatic bid. But should they stumble, they could be competing with the Cajuns for an at-large.

Wichita State
Notre Dame
Old Dominion
Kent State
Troy
Jacksonville
Michigan

Brian

[Turner]

What is the Sunbelt statistic about never having had a 2nd place finisher left out of the tournament. I know I go it wrong, what is it?

[GoneGolfin]

What is the Sunbelt statistic about never having had a 2nd place finisher left out of the tournament. I know I go it wrong, what is it?

Second place finishers in the conference regular season have been left out of the tournament. So have first place finishers. But a regular season winner (#1 seed) has not been left out of the NCAA Tournament since 1994 (when South Alabama was left out due to their 32-25 record). It also happened in 1992 with Louisiana Tech. Of course, these were years when the Tournament field was only 48 teams.

Since the new tournament format commenced (1999), only one second place finisher (#2 seed) has missed the NCAA Tournament. This was South Alabama in 2004, which actually tied Middle Tennessee for the regular season title but was the #2 seed in the SBC Tournament. South Alabama missed on an at-large bid due to RPI (pRPI of 66).

Two other second place finishers during this seven year span (new tournament format) received automatic bids. There were two cases where second place finishers in the SBC received at-large bids with pRPIs of > 50. Louisiana received an at-large bid in 1999 with a pRPI of 57 (and was actually a #2 seed). New Mexico State received an at-large bid in 2003 with a pRPI of 51.

The Sun Belt conference has placed multiple teams in the NCAA Tournament each season since 1988.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Fortunately for the Cajuns, the WKU pRPI is probably just high enough to where simply playing the games (winning) does not result in a drop in the pRPI. UL's current rating is .555 with a rank of 57. I did not catch the rating before yesterday's game. But the ranking did move up two spots. The good news is that several teams are clustered tightly around the Cajuns.

50 0.557 37 17 37 17 North Carolina-Wilmington
51 0.557 39 18 40 18 Wichita State
52 0.557 37 19 37 19 San Francisco
53 0.556 26 30 26 30 Maryland
54 0.556 32 23 32 23 San Diego
55 0.555 25 27 25 27 Texas A&M
56 0.555 38 14 39 14 Notre Dame
57 0.555 35 18 35 18 Louisiana-Lafayette
58 0.554 28 14 31 14 Oral Roberts
59 0.553 22 32 22 32 Auburn
60 0.551 29 20 30 20 Birmingham-Southern

The Cajuns are technically tied for the #55 spot. Not much separates the Cajuns from UNC-Wilmington at #50. So, what games are interesting to the Cajuns w/respect to moving up in the pRPI today? Well, apart from the obvious win(s) required against Western Kentucky .

Today's games

#50 North Carolina-Wilmington at #87 James Madison
#42 Southern California at #51 Wichita State
#55 Texas A&M at #46 Kansas
#56 Notre Dame at #176 Villanova
#59 Auburn at #13 Arkansas
#269 Radford at #60 Birmingham-Southern

Maryland, Texas A&M, and Auburn will not compete with Louisiana for a bid as their overall record is under .500. But these schools are grouped in around UL in the rankings and it would be nice to surpass them in the RPI. However, in the case of Texas A&M, a lift in their RPI would help us some and would hurt Kansas. Kansas is a fellow bubble team that will be competing with the Cajuns for an at-large bid.

Of course, having the non-conference opponents on the Cajuns' schedule win helps the Cajun pRPI. Some in the pRPI Top 100 include .

For example,

#71 McNeese State at #96 Lamar
#208 Bradley at #73 Evansville
#76 Texas-San Antonio at #120 Texas State
#141 Northwestern at #99 Purdue

I won't get into opponents of Cajun opponents. :-)

Brian

[CajunAmos]

Thanks for the info.

[MiamiCajun32]

What are the Cajuns chances of getting at large bid with 2nd place sunbelt finish and semi finals or finals in tourney? The rpi would be no better than 50 or high 40s at that point.

[GoneGolfin]

What are the Cajuns chances of getting at large bid with 2nd place sunbelt finish and semi finals or finals in tourney? The rpi would be no better than 50 or high 40s at that point.

As I was telling Jay on his show this week, I think that a 2nd place finish is likely going to require the Cajuns to make the finals of the Sun Belt Tournament. The primary reason is that if the Cajuns only make the semi-finals, it likely means that South Alabama beats us in the semis and will be firmly slotted ahead of the Cajuns for at-large consideration. The Cajun pRPI would likely be in the mid 50's in this scenario. Looking at my worksheet and expecting even a low number of conference tournament upsets, I do not think there will be enough spots for the Cajuns.

The best chance for the Sun Belt to place its top three teams in the NCAA tournament would be for Louisiana to make the finals of the conference tournament against Troy. South Alabama bowing out against the Cajuns in the semis will not hurt them too much. I think that in this case the Cajuns would have a pRPI somewhere in the mid to high 40's. I think that is enough. The NCAA would then take the Cajuns before South Alabama (season series would likely be at least tied, the Cajuns would finish higher in the regular season standings, and the Cajuns would finish better in the conference tournament).

Brian

[Dad04]

Brian

Great analysis as always.

Geaux Cajuns!!!

[GoneGolfin]

This is a follow on to Friday's post .

As you can see, Friday's win over WKU boosted UL's pRPI rating from .555 to .556. As discussed in the initial post, the Cajuns were bunched tightly with Notre Dame, Texas A&M, San Diego, and Maryland. The Cajuns vaulted past these schools after Texas A&M lost, Notre Dame won, and Maryland and San Diego were idle. East Carolina fell below the Cajuns after losing the second game of a three game series to Memphis. UNC-Wilmington lost to James Madison and also fell behind the Cajuns. Thus, with only a .001 increase in the pRPI rating, the Cajuns were able to jump six spots to #51.

43 0.566 39 14 39 14 Old Dominion
44 0.565 33 23 36 23 Kansas
45 0.563 25 27 25 27 Southern California
46 0.562 27 24 27 24 Long Beach State
47 0.561 33 16 35 16 Kent State
48 0.559 28 21 31 21 Texas Tech
49 0.559 40 18 41 18 Wichita State
50 0.557 37 19 37 19 San Francisco
51 0.556 36 18 36 18 Louisiana-Lafayette
52 0.555 32 23 32 23 San Diego
53 0.555 32 23 32 23 East Carolina
54 0.555 26 30 26 30 Maryland
55 0.555 28 14 31 14 Oral Roberts
56 0.555 39 14 40 14 Notre Dame
57 0.554 37 18 37 18 North Carolina-Wilmington
58 0.553 25 28 25 28 Texas A&M
59 0.552 22 33 22 33 Auburn
60 0.551 28 21 28 21 UC Riverside

Now, I am expecting today's win to keep the Cajuns at .556 or possibly move them to .557. This will also depend on how Cajuns opponents and opponents - opponents fared. How did some of the teams clustered around the Cajuns fare today?

#43 Old Dominion is in a swoon after losing 2/3 to #199 Towson. The Monarchs have lost six of their last eight games.

#47 Kent State lost to #251 Buffalo

#48 Texas Tech was beaten by #15 Oklahoma State again (trail 0-2 in series).

#49 Wichita State defeated #45 Southern California again (lead 2-0 in series). Note that USC is 25-28 with only five games remaining (all difficult games). An at-large bid for USC seems quite unlikely at this point.

#50 San Francisco is idle

#51 Louisiana defeated #170 Western Kentucky. The Cajuns await #135 Arkansas State in the SBC Tournament.

#52 San Diego is idle

#53 East Carolina lost to #84 Memphis (ECU was swept, has lost four consecutive games, and finished four games under .500 in conference)

#54 Maryland finished its season at 26-30.

#55 Oral Roberts took a doubleheader from #253 Oakland

#56 Notre Dame defeated #175 Villanova

#57 North Carolina-Wilmington lost to #80 James Madison

#58 Texas A&M lost to #44 Kansas (Kansas is now two games under .500 in conference)

#59 Auburn lost to #13 Arkansas (Auburn was swept and is twelve games under .500)

#60 UC-Riverside lost to #46 Long Beach State

How might the Cajuns fare after today's games? It will be interesting to see how far Kent State (.561, #47) falls after losing to a bad Buffalo (.424, #251) team. The Cajuns could pass them. Texas Tech will likely stay ahead of the Cajuns, but the gap is being closed. Wichita State stays ahead of the Cajuns. The Cajuns may move into a tie with San Francisco. I do not see anyone jumping the Cajuns after today's results. Hence, you may see the Cajuns tied with San Francisco at #49 or #50 (depending on Kent State). At worst, I think the Cajuns stay at #51. If the Cajuns vault ahead of Kent State and Texas Tech, they could be as high as #48.

The Cajuns are in the territory where every spot counts.

Brian

[Turbine]

I understand how the other teams moved in the opposite direction but never in my wildest dreams would I expect one-one thousandth of a point to have that kind of impact.

Thanks Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

I understand how the other teams moved in the opposite direction but never in my wildest dreams would I expect one-one thousandth of a point to have that kind of impact.

Thanks Brian

What would we do without Mr. Brian.This guy knows his stuff

[GoneGolfin]

How might the Cajuns fare after today's games? It will be interesting to see how far Kent State (.561, #47) falls after losing to a bad Buffalo (.424, #251) team. The Cajuns could pass them. Texas Tech will likely stay ahead of the Cajuns, but the gap is being closed. Wichita State stays ahead of the Cajuns. The Cajuns may move into a tie with San Francisco. I do not see anyone jumping the Cajuns after today's results. Hence, you may see the Cajuns tied with San Francisco at #49 or #50 (depending on Kent State). At worst, I think the Cajuns stay at #51. If the Cajuns vault ahead of Kent State and Texas Tech, they could be as high as #48.
Brian

And the optimistic scenario played out. The Cajuns vaulted Kent State and San Francisco and are tied with Texas Tech at #48. Technically, Tech may be a few ten thousandths ahead of the Cajuns at #48 with the Cajuns at #49. An Oklahoma State win over Texas Tech would vault the Cajuns ahead of Texas Tech. It would also help if Texas A&M could defeat Kansas today. There is a bit of a gap between Louisiana and Old Dominion (.004). Southern California will not factor into competing with the Cajuns for an at-large bid.

41 0.568 28 28 28 28 Florida
42 0.567 34 23 37 23 Kansas
43 0.566 33 23 33 23 Vanderbilt
44 0.563 28 24 28 24 Long Beach State
45 0.562 41 18 42 18 Wichita State
46 0.561 25 28 25 28 Southern California
47 0.561 39 15 39 15 Old Dominion
48 0.557 28 22 31 22 Texas Tech
49 0.557 37 18 37 18 Louisiana-Lafayette
50 0.556 37 19 37 19 San Francisco
51 0.556 40 14 41 14 Notre Dame
52 0.555 26 30 26 30 Maryland
53 0.555 30 14 33 14 Oral Roberts
54 0.554 32 23 32 23 San Diego
55 0.554 33 17 35 17 Kent State
56 0.553 38 16 38 16 Connecticut
57 0.552 32 24 32 24 East Carolina
58 0.552 37 19 37 19 North Carolina-Wilmington
59 0.551 37 18 37 18 Michigan
60 0.550 25 29 25 29 Texas A&M

Brian