Cajun resume, impact games, and potential seeding

The Cajuns enter Saturday with an RPI ranking of #37, but are tightly packed with a group of teams 37 -> 40. The number shown below between the teams is the RPI gap between the Cajuns and the next team. Wright State losing to a bad Youngstown State team really hurt the Cajuns yesterday afternoon. The afternoon saw the Cajuns' RPI drop .0015 mostly due to that game and a few others.

#35 Coastal Carolina .56746 (regular season complete)
.00324
#36 West Virginia .56544 (regular season complete)
.00122
#37 Louisiana .56422 (regular season complete)
.00045
#38 James Madison .56377 (Saturday vs. #55 Georgia Southern)
.00048
#39 Xavier .56374 (regular season complete)
.00059
#40 TCU .56363 (regular season complete)
.00151
#41 College of Charleston .56271 (Saturday vs. #43 UNCW)
.00175
#42 Maryland .56247 (regular season complete)
.00200
#43 Connecticut .56222 (regular season complete)
.00290
#44 UNCW .56132 (Saturday vs. #41 College of Charleston)
.00453
#45 Illinois .55969 (regular season complete)

The winner of the College Charleston vs. UNCW game has a good chance of passing the Cajuns in the RPI rankings. UNCW winning would be close and the Cajuns might be able to hold them off pending other results. CofC winning would be difficult and the Cajuns would need considerable help.

Obvious RPI impact games are any teams that are on the Cajuns' schedule, especially where the game weighting is significant. Opponent's opponents results will have a minor impact. James Madison and Appalachian State defeating Old Dominion and Troy, respectively, hurt the Cajuns yesterday. Similarly, the Cajuns want Southern Mississippi to defeat Appalachian State today ... and more importantly, Georgia Southern to defeat James Madison (for several reasons). James Madison winning would vault them past the Cajuns in the RPI rankings.

Important games (with game weighting) ...
Georgia Southern (3) vs. James Madison (1)
Southern Mississippi (3) vs. Appalachian State
McNeese (2) vs. Lamar
Vanderbilt (1) vs. Tennessee
LSU (1) vs. South Carolina
Tulane (3) vs. Florida Atlantic
Louisiana Tech (2) vs. Liberty
Grambling (1) vs. Florida A&M
Nicholls (2) vs. Lamar/McNeese (2)
Jackson State (1) vs. Bethune Cookman

Q1 metric ...
The Georgia Southern game(s) are crucial from the perspective of the Q1 metric. The Eagles are currently ranked #55, but the gap between them and #61 Texas Tech (regular season complete) is a mere .00235. A loss today to JMU may result in them falling out of the RPI Top 60. A loss and a win (if necessary game) would put them back ... but a loss Sunday might put them out again. The best case would be for Georgia Southern to win the 12:30pm today, eliminating James Madison. In that case, a loss to Southern Mississippi should leave them in the RPI Top 60 and securing three Q1 wins for selection time resume evaluation.

Southern Mississippi winning and moving into the RPI Top 25 would add another 2 wins and 1 loss to the Q1 metric. Currently, Southern Mississippi is .00561 behind #25 Mississippi State (regular season complete). It is also possible that USM could catch LSU were LSU to lose to South Carolina today.

Potential seeding update in a follow-on post ...

Brian

My biggest concern.......those 5 quad 4 losses, 4 at home. Just take a quick peek at the top 50 RPI & Only 1 team has 4 or more quad 4 losses. If the committee has a ton of stolen bids to work around......I don't see it as a stretch to use this as a reason to leave us out after going 0-2 in conference tournament.

Still think we get in....but....if we don't, No one to blame but ourselves

Cajuns are in. End of story. I don't care how many stolen bids there are. Stolen bids might impact Coastal and James Madison. I'm thinking Troy is out, regardless.

Curious what Brian thinks is the high/low for Sun Belt. I'm sure most of us would agree UL and Southern Miss are locks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Policarp

My biggest concern.......those 5 quad 4 losses, 4 at home. Just take a quick peek at the top 50 RPI & Only 1 team has 4 or more quad 4 losses. If the committee has a ton of stolen bids to work around......I don't see it as a stretch to use this as a reason to leave us out after going 0-2 in conference tournament.

Still think we get in....but....if we don't, No one to blame but ourselves

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It makes me feel better that every projection today still has us as a 2 seed, although that'll probably be at a top 4 seed

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Policarp

My biggest concern.......those 5 quad 4 losses, 4 at home. Just take a quick peek at the top 50 RPI & Only 1 team has 4 or more quad 4 losses. If the committee has a ton of stolen bids to work around......I don't see it as a stretch to use this as a reason to leave us out after going 0-2 in conference tournament.

Still think we get in....but....if we don't, No one to blame but ourselves

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First, this thread is focused on evaluating whether the Cajuns are a #2 seed or a #3 seed. Not whether the Cajuns make the field of 64. I ask that you please keep this thread focused on its original intent. If you want to start a thread debating whether the Cajuns are in the field or not, I ask that you please do it somewhere else. The summaries I put together take some work and I do not want the discussion to be distracted/derailed.

I will say it here one more time. The Cajuns are a lock for the field of 64. It is not close ... and nobody that understands the selection process believes it is close ... hence the discussion of 2-seed or 3-seed. I understand that a small minority of folks may have hesitance (fans typically have unwarranted negative sentiment when it comes to these things). But this is hesitance due to a lack of understanding of the evaluation process ... as well as a proper evaluation of the teams that would be in competition for these supposed last bids for which the Cajuns would be in jeopardy.

As for Q4 losses, your information is not correct. There are a number of teams that have 4+ Q4 losses.

#25 Mississippi State (5)
#28 Southern Mississippi (4)
#37 Louisiana (4)
#38 James Madison (5)
#41 College of Charleston (4)
#44 UNCW (5)
#48 Texas (8)

And guess what, most of these teams are going to make the field. In fact, the only bubble teams are James Madison and UNCW. It is possible that all of them make the field.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

First, this thread is focused on evaluating whether the Cajuns are a #2 seed or a #3 seed. Not whether the Cajuns make the field of 64. I ask that you please keep this thread focused on its original intent. If you want to start a thread debating whether the Cajuns are in the field or not, I ask that you please do it somewhere else. The summaries I put together take some work and I do not want the discussion to be distracted/derailed.

I will say it here one more time. The Cajuns are a lock for the field of 64. It is not close ... and nobody that understands the selection process believes it is close ... hence the discussion of 2-seed or 3-seed. I understand that a small minority of folks may have hesitance (fans typically have unwarranted negative sentiment when it comes to these things). But this is hesitance due to a lack of understanding of the evaluation process ... as well as a proper evaluation of the teams that would be in competition for these supposed last bids for which the Cajuns would be in jeopardy.

As for Q4 losses, your information is not correct. There are a number of teams that have 4+ Q4 losses.

#25 Mississippi State (5)
#28 Southern Mississippi (4)
#37 Louisiana (4)
#38 James Madison (5)
#41 College of Charleston (4)
#44 UNCW (5)
#48 Texas (8)

And guess what, most of these teams are going to make the field. In fact, the only bubble teams are James Madison and UNCW. It is possible that all of them make the field.

Brian

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My question is why UL is being considered for a #2 seed. By RPI metrics they are at best an avg 3 seed. So I assume the 2 seed consensus by the baseball media is for winning the league.

If that’s the case, then RPI isn’t as important for UL as opposed to bubble teams.

Also only thing that seems certain is UL should be going to a top 4-5 national seed, either as a very weak 2 or strong 3.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

First, this thread is focused on evaluating whether the Cajuns are a #2 seed or a #3 seed. Not whether the Cajuns make the field of 64. I ask that you please keep this thread focused on its original intent. If you want to start a thread debating whether the Cajuns are in the field or not, I ask that you please do it somewhere else. The summaries I put together take some work and I do not want the discussion to be distracted/derailed.

I will say it here one more time. The Cajuns are a lock for the field of 64. It is not close ... and nobody that understands the selection process believes it is close ... hence the discussion of 2-seed or 3-seed. I understand that a small minority of folks may have hesitance (fans typically have unwarranted negative sentiment when it comes to these things). But this is hesitance due to a lack of understanding of the evaluation process ... as well as a proper evaluation of the teams that would be in competition for these supposed last bids for which the Cajuns would be in jeopardy.

As for Q4 losses, your information is not correct. There are a number of teams that have 4+ Q4 losses.

#25 Mississippi State (5)
#28 Southern Mississippi (4)
#37 Louisiana (4)
#38 James Madison (5)
#41 College of Charleston (4)
#44 UNCW (5)
#48 Texas (8)

And guess what, most of these teams are going to make the field. In fact, the only bubble teams are James Madison and UNCW. It is possible that all of them make the field.

Brian

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GG from the top rope on policarp!

Great information for the masses here! Looking forward to where the Cajuns pop up Monday.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CajunSID

My question is why UL is being considered for a #2 seed. By RPI metrics they are at best an avg 3 seed. So I assume the 2 seed consensus by the baseball media is for winning the league.

If that’s the case, then RPI isn’t as important for UL as opposed to bubble teams.

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Strictly by RPI, the Cajuns would be the 6th best #3 seed (#38 RPI ranking). 5th best #3 seed when you throw out #33 Ole Miss, as they do not qualify for the NCAA Tournament. But while RPI is important to the committee, it is nowhere near the end all/be all in seeding. How else would #15 national seed Kentucky in 2023 have an RPI ranking of #2? Other metrics are important too, notably conference finish (especially in higher ranked conferences) as well as record against peer competition (Q1, etc.). This is why what happens with Georgia Southern and Southern Mississippi is important.

Additionally, you need to look at the resumes of the schools that are in competition with the Cajuns for the final #2 seeds. They are close. This is the refresh that I will be including in this thread later today.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CajunSID

Also only thing that seems certain is UL should be going to a top 4-5 national seed, either as a very weak 2 or strong 3.

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Not certain. See this post. Though what may make it more likely is that the Cajuns may not have a regional where they can be slotted that is within bus distance that is not one of these top 5 national seeds. It will also depend on other #2 seeds and their locale and conference affiliation.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Not certain. See this post. Though what may make it more likely is that the Cajuns may not have a regional where they can be slotted that is within bus distance that is not one of these top 5 national seeds. It will also depend on other #2 seeds and their locale and conference affiliation.

Brian

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Gotcha and enjoyed the read. With Lamar losing (think they are #60 in RPI), have to think the geography and regional strength make Texas A&M a realistic option for UL now.

Pretty sure Lamar sits at home.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cajundiehard

Pretty sure Lamar sits at home.

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That would be a shame. They’ve had a really good year.

Southland is #14 rated conference. One bid league. But I would defer to Brian. Lamar #64 RPI. Good for them. Let them sit. Not a fan of Lamar... ;-)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cajundiehard

Southland is #14 rated conference. One bid league. But I would defer to Brian. Lamar #64 RPI. Good for them. Let them sit. Not a fan of Lamar... ;-)

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Oh I don’t think they’re gonna get in. And I have no love for Lamar at all.

I just think it’s a shame that a team can win 44 games, win their regular season title, go on the road and sweep a team that’s a likely top 8 national seed…and then don’t get play in the postseason because they lost in the semifinals of their conference tournament.

Especially a team that led the country in ERA…which tells me (along with the sweep at Oklahoma) that they’re a team capable of winning a regional

The Cajuns dropped a loss from their Q1 record today when James Madison dropped from #40 to #41. The Cajuns currently sit at 6-6 in Q1 games.

Georgia Southern really needs to win tonight to secure a spot in the RPI Top 60. This would ...

#1 Secure/preserve 3 wins for the Cajuns' Q1 metric
#2 Keep JMU out of the RPI Top 40 (refrain from adding a loss to the Cajuns' Q1 metric)
#3 Will be an RPI boost for the Cajuns (played Georgia Southern 3 times, JMU once)
#4 Will be an RPI boost for #26 Southern Mississippi (they played Georgia Southern ... but not JMU), potentially getting them into the RPI Top 25 with a win tomorrow (hopefully over Georgia Southern). USM in the RPI Top 25 along with Georgia Southern in the RPI Top 60 puts the Cajuns at 8-7 in Q1 games. This would certainly be a #2 seed in my mind.

Additionally, #62 Nicholls is on the cusp of being an RPI Top 60 team with their winning the SLC tournament title. But given that they are .0013 back of #60 Louisville with no more games to play, it will be difficult. Other teams ahead of Nicholls and within range have finished playing as well.

Brian

I have the following twelve schools as likely #2 seeds. It is possible that one or more become national seeds, but that does not matter for our purposes here. There are also some that might be #3 seeds, but I am being conservative. These are not in any particular order.

East Carolina
Wake Forest
Mississippi State
LSU
Vanderbilt
Arizona
Dallas Baptist
South Carolina
UC Irvine
San Diego
Southern Mississippi
Louisiana Tech

This leaves four spots for what I believe will be six potential schools vying for these last #2 seeds.

#24 Alabama
13-17 Conference (Tie 7th place)
0-1 Conference Tournament
15-20 Q1, 2-0 Q2, 3-1 Q3, 13-1 Q4
#34 NC RPI
#7 SOS #158 NC SOS
8-12 Road

#29 Nebraska
16-8 Conference (2nd place)
4-1 Conference Tournament
3-1 Q1, 15-12 Q2, 14-5 Q3, 6-2 Q4
#30 NC RPI
#37 SOS #10 NC SOS
15-9 Road
8-2 Last 10

#36 West Virginia
19-11 Conference (4th place)
0-2 Conference Tournament
5-8 Q1, 13-8 Q2, 6-5 Q3, 9-1 Q4
#61 NC RPI
#43 SOS #135 NC SOS
14-14 Road
5-5 Last 10

#37 Louisiana
23-7 Conference (Conference Champion)
0-2 Conference Tournament
6-6 Q1, 6-4 Q2, 12-4 Q3, 16-4 Q4
#76 NC RPI
#64 SOS #83 NC SOS
14-5 Road
7-3 Last 10

#32 Central Florida
14-15 Conference (8th place)
2-1 Conference Tournament
4-8 Q1, 9-5 Q2, 11-4 Q3, 11-2 Q4
#24 NC RPI
#41 SOS #149 NC SOS
12-9 Road
6-4 Last 10

#48 Texas
20-10 Conference (3rd place)
0-2 Conference Tournament
12-9 Q1, 6-4 Q2, 4-1 Q3, 13-8 Q4
#90 NC RPI
#29 SOS #30 NC SOS
11-5 Road
6-4 Last 10

I did not include #34 Northeastern, #35 Coastal Carolina, #38 UNCW, #39 Xavier, #40 TCU, #41 James Madison, #42 Connecticut, #43 Maryland, #44 Charleston, #45 Kansas State, #46 Illinois, or #47 Georgia Tech in the formal evaluation above as they have resumes that do not make the cut. A few of them are on the bubble for a tournament bid (Northeastern, Coastal Carolina, Xavier, James Madison, etc.). #43 Maryland will not make the field.

Of this group of six, I would have the Cajuns in the Top 3. As such, I think there is a strong possibility of the Cajuns being a #2 seed.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

The Cajuns dropped a loss from their Q1 record today when James Madison dropped from #40 to #41. The Cajuns currently sit at 6-6 in Q1 games.

Georgia Southern really needs to win tonight to secure a spot in the RPI Top 60. This would ...

#1 Secure/preserve 3 wins for the Cajuns' Q1 metric
#2 Keep JMU out of the RPI Top 40 (refrain from adding a loss to the Cajuns' Q1 metric)
#3 Will be an RPI boost for the Cajuns (played Georgia Southern 3 times, JMU once)
#4 Will be an RPI boost for #26 Southern Mississippi (they played Georgia Southern ... but not JMU), potentially getting them into the RPI Top 25 with a win tomorrow (hopefully over Georgia Southern). USM in the RPI Top 25 along with Georgia Southern in the RPI Top 60 puts the Cajuns at 8-7 in Q1 games. This would certainly be a #2 seed in my mind.

Additionally, #62 Nicholls is on the cusp of being an RPI Top 60 team with their winning the SLC tournament title. But given that they are .0013 back of #60 Louisville with no more games to play, it will be difficult. Other teams ahead of Nicholls and within range have finished playing as well.

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Good night for the Cajuns. Both Southern Mississippi and Georgia Southern win to setup the tournament championship game tomorrow. I am also glad the conference is not required to play one or more if necessary games before the championship game.

Regardless of what happens in tomorrow's game, George Southern will finish in the RPI Top 60. The question is whether Southern Mississippi can inch their way into the #25 spot with a win tomorrow. It will be close, but they may come up just short. They trail #25 Alabama by .0036.

Brian

I'm torn on who to root for. Thinking USM possibly getting into the Top 25 won't make too much of a difference on Cajuns destination... and I'd like to see the SBC get as many teams in as possible... so I think I'm good with GA Southern stealing a bid at this point. I do like that Blancato kid. He's got a lot of heart and grit.

Who might get another at-large from the Belt? JMU and/or Coastal? Unfortunately, I think Troy's season is over. JMO.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cajundiehard

I'm torn on who to root for. Thinking USM possibly getting into the Top 25 won't make too much of a difference on Cajuns destination... and I'd like to see the SBC get as many teams in as possible... so I think I'm good with GA Southern stealing a bid at this point. I do like that Blancato kid. He's got a lot of heart and grit.

Who might get another at-large from the Belt? JMU and/or Coastal? Unfortunately, I think Troy's season is over. JMO.

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See other thread.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

See other thread.

Brian

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1. Texas A&M
2. Louisiana
3. Texas
4. Automatic qualifier

It makes too much sense imo. Geography, balance is there. Only question is 2-3 UL/Texas matchup for 2nd year in a row.

If Miss St gets a regional, then maybe they go there if USM gets shipped off. If not those 2, all bets are off.

D1Baseball this morning has the Cajuns as the 2 seed in Tallahassee, playing UCF in the first game

https://d1baseball.com/stories/2024-...4-projections/