La Tech and Marshall impact

I have been getting questions regarding the impact of recent games, so am providing the following ...

Similar to what is to come with Marshall, the Prairie View A&M home win had a modest negative impact to the Cajuns' RPI last night ... a drop of .001370 (from .56299 to .56162).

A win over La Tech (all other things being equal) will increase the Cajuns' RPI to .56674 (increase of .00512), currently good for #46 in the rankings (just ahead of LSU). A loss would drop the Cajuns' RPI to .55746 (decrease of .00416), currently good for #54 in the rankings (just ahead of Old Dominion).

By itself (also not including prediction result from tonight), a sweep of Marshall will drop the Cajuns' RPI to .56134 (decrease of .00028) ... really negligible. Winning 2/3 results in a drop to .55242 (decrease of .00920) ... currently good for #60 in the RPI rankings.

Brian

Thanks!!! Your our resident expert and it's appreciated

The nuances are so intriguing.

Thanks

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

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Originally Posted by Esqueleto

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

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That’s what LSU said.

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Originally Posted by Esqueleto

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

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Would need win 90% of the remaining games. GS to sneak into Q1 and play JMU , GS and CC in the belt tournament. Not impossible but very improbable.

Ironically enough ... a loss to Louisiana Tech tonight increases the odds that the Cajuns can log their first Q1 win (their win in Ruston earlier in the season). Reminder ... the win over Tech in Ruston becomes a Q1 game if Tech can make its way into the RPI Top 60 ... but the home game tonight is not Q1 unless Tech makes it into the RPI Top 25. This is how dumb and arbitrary the new Quartile components are as an evaluation metric. But this is what happens when you continue to put lipstick on a pig and do not have a sound statistical foundation.

Meanwhile, Nicholls State (#68) has propelled them into Q1 territory with its sweep last weekend of SLU ... but the Cajuns do not have a return game in Thibodaux this season. Maybe we should look to add a midweek game later in the season should Nicholls be firmly in the Top 60.

Southern Miss is moving up the RPI rankings, but is still quite a way from the #25 RPI ranking required for these to be Q1 games for the Cajuns. At #36, USM is .01750 away (.5739) from the #25 slot (.5914). Not impossible ... just hard. Again ... a win in Lafayette helps their cause (as opposed to a Cajun sweep) ... but would need plenty of other help.

Brian

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Originally Posted by Esqueleto

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

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SWAC games is in no way the issue. The issue would be record against top teams ... meaning, show me the Q1 record. The Cajuns are 0-1 here. The question would likely be ... who did you play and beat?

If the Cajuns can have success against Coastal and Georgia Southern (and George Southern remains in the RPI Top 60), this important metric can be improved significantly. But I am not sure it is enough. That part of the schedule just is not there.

Brian

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

SWAC games is in no way the issue. The issue would be record against top teams ... meaning, show me the Q1 record. The Cajuns are 0-1 here. The question would likely be ... who did you play and beat?

If the Cajuns can have success against Coastal and Georgia Southern (and George Southern remains in the RPI Top 60), this important metric can be improved significantly. But I am not sure it is enough. That part of the schedule just is not there.

Brian

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Do we have scheduling problem? If so, how should we build a schedule?

Appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thanks.

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Originally Posted by cajun_lannister

Would need win 90% of the remaining games. GS to sneak into Q1 and play JMU , GS and CC in the belt tournament. Not impossible but very improbable.

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We play GS on the road, they are already Q1…so is coastal

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

SWAC games is in no way the issue. The issue would be record against top teams ... meaning, show me the Q1 record. The Cajuns are 0-1 here. The question would likely be ... who did you play and beat?

If the Cajuns can have success against Coastal and Georgia Southern (and George Southern remains in the RPI Top 60), this important metric can be improved significantly. But I am not sure it is enough. That part of the schedule just is not there.

Brian

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Is your context here our hosting resume?

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Ironically enough ... a loss to Louisiana Tech tonight increases the odds that the Cajuns can log their first Q1 win (their win in Ruston earlier in the season). Reminder ... the win over Tech in Ruston becomes a Q1 game if Tech can make its way into the RPI Top 60 ... but the home game tonight is not Q1 unless Tech makes it into the RPI Top 25. This is how dumb and arbitrary the new Quartile components are as an evaluation metric. But this is what happens when you continue to put lipstick on a pig and do not have a sound statistical foundation.

Meanwhile, Nicholls State (#68) has propelled them into Q1 territory with its sweep last weekend of SLU ... but the Cajuns do not have a return game in Thibodaux this season. Maybe we should look to add a midweek game later in the season should Nicholls be firmly in the Top 60.

Southern Miss is moving up the RPI rankings, but is still quite a way from the #25 RPI ranking required for these to be Q1 games for the Cajuns. At #36, USM is .01750 away (.5739) from the #25 slot (.5914). Not impossible ... just hard. Again ... a win in Lafayette helps their cause (as opposed to a Cajun sweep) ... but would need plenty of other help.

Brian

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Latech also has road series at Arizona and DBU on their schedule left, as well as SHSU, WKU and liberty. They have opportunity

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Originally Posted by HOUCajun

Is your context here our hosting resume?

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Yes ... I was responding to the "too many SWAC teams" comment ... which was in the context of the poster claiming it would be the reason the Cajuns cannot host.

Brian

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Originally Posted by CajunNation

Do we have scheduling problem? If so, how should we build a schedule?

Appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thanks.

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I would like to see us travel more midweek to places like A&M, MS State, Baylor, Arkansas, etc. instead of hosting RPI sucks. JMO

I don't see how we would host......pretty much have to win out to sniff any chance. Even with 16 wins in a row......we are a bubble at best right now.

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Originally Posted by CrazyCajun

We play GS on the road, they are already Q1…so is coastal

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Should have said stay In Q1

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Originally Posted by CajunNation

Do we have scheduling problem? If so, how should we build a schedule?

Appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thanks.

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First, would I have done some things differently ... which do not require timely knowledge? Certainly. Taking better advantage of the home/road multiplier disparity is one ... but needs to be weighed in the context of putting together a good home schedule for the fans. Some of the teams scheduled could be improved. And I am referring to the part of the schedule that gets added in months before ... not two years in advance.

But I think that some of what we are seeing is simply the schedule being back loaded a bit due to how the conference schedule came out. Some of this will resolve itself.

That said, I think there is a difference between assembling a schedule with the goal of obtaining an at-large bid ... and assembling a schedule with the goal of being a national seed. What we have in 2024 is not a national seed schedule. Making it fit as such would require winning a substantial number of games ... while not squandering Q1 opportunities. Very difficult to do ... much easier to do with a stronger schedule (allowing more losses) and more road games.

Brian

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Originally Posted by CajunNation

Do we have scheduling problem? If so, how should we build a schedule?

Appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thanks.

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Noticed too many SWAC teams. Historically one of the weaker conferences. Is it a scheduling issue? Money? Good question to straight up ask Deggs.

Where’s UNO, they’re usually on the schedule?

Be a shame come May had too many cupcakes on the schedule.

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Originally Posted by ZoomZoom

Noticed too many SWAC teams. Historically one of the weaker conferences. Is it a scheduling issue? Money? Good question to straight up ask Deggs.

Be a shame come May had too many cupcakes on the schedule.

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Just to be clear ... not all SWAC is bad. SWAC teams have been instrumental in good softball and baseball schedules. But you need the right ones (good programs) and do not over-schedule them. And win.

Example, Jackson State is a good opponent to have this season ... despite the #232 ranking (RPI rankings can be very misleading).

Brian

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Originally Posted by ZoomZoom

Noticed too many SWAC teams. Historically one of the weaker conferences. Is it a scheduling issue? Money? Good question to straight up ask Deggs.

Where’s UNO, they’re usually on the schedule?

Be a shame come May had too many cupcakes on the schedule.

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We are sitting at 51 with road series at #21 and #47, home series with #36 left on the schedule. USA and Troy at 71 and 84…already swept 53. Take care of business and we will be fine. We have 3 series left in the top 50 and 1 in the top 25 on the road.

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Originally Posted by CrazyCajun

We are sitting at 51 with road series at #21 and #47, home series with #36 left on the schedule. USA and Troy at 71 and 84…already swept 53. Take care of business and we will be fine. We have 3 series left in the top 50 and 1 in the top 25 on the road.

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Yeah, you'll be fine to make the field, but there should not be any conversation about hosting (unless the win streak never ends, lol)

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Originally Posted by Esqueleto

Yeah, you'll be fine to make the field, but there should not be any conversation about hosting (unless the win streak never ends, lol)

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We don’t know that, no clue what our opponents or their opponents will do. A lot of variables. We earned our at large in the conference tourney last year, we halfway through the season with the meat of our schedule left.

Being awarded an “at large” bid is totally different than Boeing awarded a host site.

Where is the game thread?

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Originally Posted by Grantvb

Where is the game thread?

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Just made one