Cajuns' RPI at selection time ...

The Cajuns' RPI ranking at selection time is discussed below in the context of last week's rankings.

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Overall RPI Rankings from 5/7
#1 California
#2 Arizona State
#3 Alabama
#4 Oklahoma
#5 Texas
#6 Tennessee
#7 Florida
#8 Oregon
#9 Texas A&M
#10 Arizona

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I do not expect that the Cajuns can catch anyone in the RPI Top 10.

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

#11 UCLA

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This one is too close to call. UCLA will finish ahead of the Cajuns if Georgia Tech does not move into the Base RPI 25 (next bonus tier). But if the Yellow Jackets do move into this bonus tier, whether the Cajuns finish ahead of UCLA or not will depend on what happens with #20 Syracuse, #21 Stanford, and #25 Oregon State. If any of those teams drop out of the Base RPI Top 25 and GT squeaks in, I think the Cajuns pass UCLA to grab the #12 spot.

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

#12 Louisville

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Louisville will finish ahead of the Cajuns.

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

#13 Louisiana
#14 Missouri

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Missouri is going to be very close, unless Georgia Tech (#27 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra (#51 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 50. Even if the Cajuns do not earn any more RPI bonus points this week, I think they will just barely hold off Missouri. Michigan should remain in the Base RPI Top 25 (#24 last week) as they swept a good Purdue team. I am also expecting #47 Houston to remain in the Top 50 as they played two tough games this week (UCF and Tulsa), winning one of them ... thus I do not expect the Cajuns to lose any RPI bonus points from last week.

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

#15 Georgia

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The Cajuns will finish ahead of Georgia

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

#16 Florida State
#17 Washington
#18 Stanford
#19 South Florida
#20 Hawaii

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The Cajuns need not be concerned with anyone outside of the RPI Top 16 catching them.

So, in summary ... I think it will be no lower than #13 (just holding off Missouri) with a possibility of #12.

Brian

So Brian if we would have beaten USA would we have had a chance at the #11 spot ahead of Louisville or not?

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Originally Posted by J-Town Cajun

So Brian if we would have beaten USA would we have had a chance at the #11 spot ahead of Louisville or not?

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With Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50, it would have been very close. It all comes down to how the RPI bonuses flesh out for both teams.

A Cajun win over South Alabama would have been a #12 ranking at minimum (easily vaulting past UCLA).

Brian

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

With Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50, it would have been very close. It all comes down to how the RPI bonuses flesh out for both teams.

A Cajun win over South Alabama would have been a #12 ranking at minimum (easily vaulting past UCLA).

Brian

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So the two run error againt the Hoax hurt us the most.

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Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS

So the two run error againt the Hoax hurt us the most.

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RPI-wise, the losses are equivalent.

Brian

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

The Cajuns' RPI ranking at selection time is discussed below in the context of last week's rankings.


I do not expect that the Cajuns can catch anyone in the RPI Top 10.


This one is too close to call. UCLA will finish ahead of the Cajuns if Georgia Tech does not move into the Base RPI 25 (next bonus tier). But if the Yellow Jackets do move into this bonus tier, whether the Cajuns finish ahead of UCLA or not will depend on what happens with #20 Syracuse, #21 Stanford, and #25 Oregon State. If any of those teams drop out of the Base RPI Top 25 and GT squeaks in, I think the Cajuns pass UCLA to grab the #12 spot.


Louisville will finish ahead of the Cajuns.


Missouri is going to be very close, unless Georgia Tech (#27 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra (#51 in the Base RPI last week) moves into the Base RPI Top 50. Even if the Cajuns do not earn any more RPI bonus points this week, I think they will just barely hold off Missouri. Michigan should remain in the Base RPI Top 25 (#24 last week) as they swept a good Purdue team. I am also expecting #47 Houston to remain in the Top 50 as they played two tough games this week (UCF and Tulsa), winning one of them ... thus I do not expect the Cajuns to lose any RPI bonus points from last week.


The Cajuns will finish ahead of Georgia


The Cajuns need not be concerned with anyone outside of the RPI Top 16 catching them.

So, in summary ... I think it will be no lower than #13 (just holding off Missouri) with a possibility of #12.

Brian

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I was correct in that the Cajuns finished ahead of Missouri. They also squeezed out UCLA for the #12 spot, as I thought they would. I will have the actual RPI numbers calc'ed shortly.

The Cajuns were in fact able to move ahead of UCLA due to Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50 ... an additional .0039 in bonus.

As far as record vs. RPI Top 25 is concerned, Michigan made it in ... hence the Cajuns were 4-0 vs. the RPI Top 25. I think this gave them the nod over #10 Louisville.

South Alabama finished at #43.

Brian

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

I was correct in that the Cajuns finished ahead of Missouri. They also squeezed out UCLA for the #12 spot, as I thought they would. I will have the actual RPI numbers calc'ed shortly.

The Cajuns were in fact able to move ahead of UCLA due to Georgia Tech moving into the Base RPI Top 25 and Hofstra moving into the Base RPI Top 50 ... an additional .0039 in bonus.

As far as record vs. RPI Top 25 is concerned, Michigan made it in ... hence the Cajuns were 4-0 vs. the RPI Top 25. I think this gave them the nod over #10 Louisville.

South Alabama finished at #43.

Brian

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Oh ... the Selection Show was wrong last night. Texas had the #3 NC RPI. Alabama was #2. Guess who was #1?

Brian

Brian

Based on your calculations, and going under the premise that RPI was the deciding factor in the top 16 seeds, how do we finish with the #12 RPI and #1 RPI non conference and we wind up the 14 seed?

Overall RPI

#1 (N1) California .7372 (22-4, 4-0)
#2 (N2) Alabama .7185 (9-3, 23-2)
#3 (N3) Arizona State .7171 (16-6, 2-0)
#4 (N7) Tennessee .6893 (7-7, 19-2)
#5 (N6) Texas .6890 (9-8, 12-2)
#6 (N4) Oklahoma .6871 (9-7, 13-1)
#7 (N5) Florida .6840 (10-7, 12-4)
#8 (N8) Texas A&M .6770 (9-9, 12-3)
#9 (N11) Oregon .6759 (11-12, 4-2)
#10 (N15) Louisville .6680 (3-1, 9-2)
#11 (N13) Arizona .6624 (11-15, 4-0)
#12 (N14) Louisiana .6598 (4-0, 10-1)
#13 (N12) UCLA .6574 (10-16, 7-1)
#14 (N9) Missouri .6544 (9-8, 10-0)
#15 (N10) Georgia .6446 (6-8, 11-6)
#16 Florida State .6413 (2-6, 7-5)
#17 South Florida .6403 (4-5, 5-2)
#18 (N16) Washington .6364 (7-17, 4-0)
#19 Stanford .6316 (11-13, 1-0)
#20 Hawaii .6276 (3-2, 3-2)
#21 Georgia Tech .6241 (6-6, 8-9)
#22 Syracuse .6224 (3-5, 7-4)
#23 Texas Tech .6217 (5-9, 8-4)
#24 Oregon State .6183 (7-14, 4-2)
#25 Michigan .6160 (1-6, 6-2)

Non-Conference RPI

#1 (N14) Louisiana .6822
#2 (N2) Alabama .6816
#3 (N6) Texas .6743
#4 (N15) Louisville .6661
#5 (N7) Tennessee .6619
#6 (N1) California .6558
#7 (N16) Washington .6514
#8 Hawaii .6510
#9 (N3) Arizona State .6500
#10 South Florida .6488
#11 (N8) Texas A&M .6464
#12 (N5) Florida .6434
#13 (N11) Oregon .6409
#14 (N13) Arizona .6360
#15 (N4) Oklahoma .6354
#16 (N10) Georgia .6284
#17 Florida State .6272
#18 (N12) UCLA .6258
#19 Michigan .6231
#20 Syracuse .6138
#21 Auburn .6118
#22 DePaul .6099
#23 Georgia Tech .6062
#24 (N9) Missouri .6034
#25 Stanford .5957

Brian

It irks me that despite these 2 categories, we're only a 14 seed. Would've been interesting to see where we could have wound up if we didnt lose to ULM or USA in last couple weeks.

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Originally Posted by wcd35

It irks me that despite these 2 categories, we're only a 14 seed. Would've been interesting to see where we could have wound up if we didnt lose to ULM or USA in last couple weeks.

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Are you sure you want to know that?

Brian

Check my math for me but I'm guessing around #10 RPI just under a 0.6700 RPI (~.6693) going with a very quick and simple calculation.

Bonus for beating USA? I cant keep bonus systems straight.

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Originally Posted by CajunAmos

Brian

Based on your calculations, and going under the premise that RPI was the deciding factor in the top 16 seeds, how do we finish with the #12 RPI and #1 RPI non conference and we wind up the 14 seed?

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Looking at the metrics, the best I can tell is that the big conference schools received plenty of "benefit of the doubt" ... on top of the biased RPI system. If it were not for Washington achieving a #1 seed, I would say that they did not examine the NC RPI rankings. I mean, forget #16 Florida State and #17 South Florida. What about #19 Stanford over #18 Washington? Consider this?

Washington was more on a downward spiral than anyone team in the field. They lost their last seven games! One of the selection metrics is record over last 10 games ... Washington was 2-8, Florida State was 7-3, and South Florida was 5-5. As I posted at the beginning of last week, Washington lost 16 of its last 20.

Stanford clobbered Washington at the end of the season in a three game sweep. In fact, Washington did not score in any game and was run-ruled in the finale. Stanford outscored them by an aggregate 15-0.

Stanford also finished 3 1/2 games ahead of Washington in conference play ... 11-13 vs. 7-16.

Stanford was 11-13 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 1-0 vs. the RPI 26->50. Washington was 7-17 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 4-0 vs. the RPI 26->50.

Stanford was 6-4 in its last 10 games. Washington was 2-8.

Washington did have a #7 NC RPI and Stanford had a #25 NC RPI. But if this metric was that important, why was Louisiana a #14 seed with an overall RPI rank of 12 and a NC RPI of #1? The Cajuns were also 4-0 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 10-1 vs. the RPI 26->50 ... with a 9-2 blasting of Arizona State.

Brian

So, a national seed with wins over ULM and/or USA? Yea, I really want to know. With this committee... I don't think it made a difference.

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Originally Posted by wcd35

Check my math for me but I'm guessing around #10 RPI just under a 0.6700 RPI (~.6693) going with a very quick and simple calculation

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Except for the South Alabama loss (which involves an RPI Top 50 bonus of .0013 if you win), it makes no difference which of the other losses you remove.

So, let's start with removing the South Alabama loss ...

- 50-3 (removing the South Alabama loss) -> Adjusted RPI .6658 ... RPI Rank #11
- 51-2 (removing any of the ULM, Troy, or FIU losses) -> Adjusted RPI .6706 ... RPI Rank #10
- 52-1 (removing any two of the ULM, Troy, and FIU losses) -> Adjusted RPI .6753 ... RPI Rank of #10
- 53-0 (removing all losses) -> Adjusted RPI .6800 ... RPI Rank of #8

Remember when I said our Adjusted RPI of .6830 was going to be the peak RPI of the season several weeks ago?

Brian

Well I was mainly referring to our dropping 2 in the last 2 weeks rather than looking at it as a whole. More like, if we were hitting our top form, we wouldnt have lost those, that's why I removed those 2 specifically. Guess my calc was close, though I didnt remember the total for a bonus (Is it .0013, huh?) I had the number right minus the bonus

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Originally Posted by cajundiehard

So, a national seed with wins over ULM and/or USA? Yea, I really want to know. With this committee... I don't think it made a difference.

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Yeah I dont know either. They seeded us below our RPI spot even with a great NC RPI, I doubt we'd have gotten any boost the other direction assuming we wouldnt likely have been a top 8, but maybe they would have been more generous to a 2 loss team.

What a compete joke that Missouri and Georgia got the #9 & #10 seeds

In my mind, the only way they would have made the Cajuns a top 8 seed is if we had less than 2 losses. For as long as the Cajuns have been a national power, you'd think they would get some benefit of the doubt, but obviously it ain't ever gonna happen. It's time to show 'em what us Cajuns are made of!!

GEAUX CAJUNS!!!

Well Washington throws a curve ball into trying to make any sense of it. The only thing I can grasp at is the number of games played against the top 25. That seems to be the only thing that correlates. Note I didn't say how you did against that schedule only that you played more games against the top 25.

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Originally Posted by ulforlife

What a compete joke that Missouri and Georgia got the #9 & #10 seeds

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I think with Missouri, it went down like this ...

Selection Committee discussion:
We really like Oregon's body of work, their #9 RPI, and their third place finish in the #1 RPI conference. But #14 Missouri just came in to Eugene and took 2/3 from the Ducks. We cannot seed Oregon ahead of Missouri ... but we do not want to drop Oregon too far. Nobody will notice/complain if we bump them over Louisville and Louisiana (OK, I added this last sentence).

Let's move Missouri up to #9 and we can make Oregon #11.
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I have no explanation for Georgia ... other than cramming the top seed slots with member of the top three conferences.

The only two schools earning a #1 seed outside of the Top 3 conferences, the #14 and #15 seeds ... from the #7 and #5 conferences respectively.

Brian

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Originally Posted by Cajun90

Well Washington throws a curve ball into trying to make any sense of it. The only thing I can grasp at is the number of games played against the top 25. That seems to be the only thing that correlates. Note I didn't say how you did against that schedule only that you played more games against the top 25.

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#19 Stanford blows that theory.

As I detailed in the above comparison of Washington and Stanford ... the only edge Washington had in the evaluation criteria was NC RPI. But again, if NC RPI mattered that much, how do you explain Louisiana and to a lesser extent Lousiville?

Brian

Let's just win out and be done with it!

I wasn't looking at NC RPI but rather all games played against the RPI top 25. As of last week we both had three games against the top 25. Well below the other #1 teams total games against the top 25 but I'm still just grasping at straws.

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Originally Posted by Cajun90

I wasn't looking at NC RPI but rather all games played against the RPI top 25. As of last week we both had three games against the top 25. Well below the other #1 teams total games against the top 25 but I'm still just grasping at straws.

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I was comparing Stanford and Washington. Both have played 24 games vs. the RPI Top 25 ... Stanford won 11, Washington 7.

Brian