Is Bob Marlin's seat even starting to warm up?

The 2015-16 basketball team is 0-3 against quality opponents. A school with our basketball tradition should not get credit for defeating Mississippi College, Louisiana College and a weak Loyola team (using the same philosophy that Alabama football should not really get credit for beating ULM and Eastern Michigan).

In 2013-14, with now NBA player Elfred Payton and NBA Prospect Shawn Long, the Cajuns went 23-13 with victories over power house teams like Louisiana College, McNeese State, Oakland, Coastal Carolina, Northwestern State, Centenary, and Central Methodist. Take those seven rent-a-wins away from the Cajuns and the team is 16-13 on the season with losses to power house teams like Jackson State and ULM. We did go to the big dance but lost by 10 points in our first game to Creighton.

In 2014-15, with our team being led by NBA prospect Shawn Long who would eventually make a national team, went 22-14 overall with 7 losses in conference. The Cajuns had wins over Louisiana College, Oral Roberts, Jackson State, Centenary, Milligan College, Incarnate Word, and Sam Houston State. Take those 7 wins off our schedule and the Cajuns are 15-14 with losses to Milwaukee, McNeese State, Northwestern State, and Evansville.

The 2014-15 Cajuns went to a THIRD TIER post season tournament meaning the top 98 teams went to the other two tournaments. A great degree of pride was shown by a second place finish in a tournament made up of also ran teams.

This season there was a lot of hype about how wonderful this team would be. In the three games that we have played against teams that have a chance to be in post season tournaments we have lost by 16 (Miami), 12 (Alabama) and 11 (ULM).

So here are the questions about a coach of a team with very high expectations:

1) What is an acceptable final season record for this team?
2) What is an acceptable finish in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament?
3) Is our season not successful if we are not in the NCAA Tournament?
4) If we make the NCAA Tournament how far do we think this team SHOULD go?
5) If we do not make the NCAA Tournament what is an acceptable finish in a second or third tier tournament?

Bob Marlin success is a mirage. At least to the degree it can be viewed as a sucess. He's had problems since year one. He started year one with a long long losing streak. A valient senior and over performing freshman managed to close well that year.

The next year everyone wants to blame everybody but Bobby for the dismal season. Took two miracal finishes in the tournament to get to the NCAA. The player who became an NBA lottery pick had a lot to do with that. He was an undervalued recruit graduating young from high school. Otherwise he never sees Lafayette.

Last year started out a lot like this year. Unexpected losses and wins. Lots of teams happy we upped their three point efficiency. Don't get too down on Bobby. We'll make a pay in tournament.

1) At least 20 wins
2) Second
3) No. NIT is acceptable.
4) At least one win
5) At least two wins

1 20 is always a nice place to get to on the measuring stick. I really don't care about a specific number as long as they finish 1st or 2nd in the conference and get the double bye.
2 I want to at least play on Sunday
3 Making the big dance comes down to wining the little dance (conference tourney). I can still see some other scenarios were I would consider the season a success. (See # 5)
4 I would love to see at least one win but a first round loss that is competitive against a quality team where the game is still in doubt in the final minute is nothing to sneeze at.
5 The only way to get in the NIT is to win the conference and not win the tournament. In that scenario I would want to see a win or two. If you don't win either the regular season or conference tourney then it's off to the CIT or CBI, in that case as Jake Taylor famously said "win the whole ******* thing"

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oldalum

Is Bob Marlin's seat even starting to warm up?

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I hope not.

Nor should it be.

Just my opinion.

Going into this season Marlin's record with the Cajuns is 88-77. Of those 88 wins the following are RENT-A-WINS in my opinion:

2014-15: Louisiana College, Oral Roberts, Jackson State, Centenary, Milligan College, Incarnate Word, and Sam Houston State.

2013-14: Louisiana College, McNeese State, Oakland, Coastal Carolina, Northwestern State, Centenary, and Central Methodist

2012-13: Oakland, Southern NO,

2011-12: Northern Arizona, Houston Baptist, McNeese, Dillard,

2010-11: Louisiana College, Centenary

Take those 24 wins off the table and his record at UL is 64-77.

14 of his RENT-A-WINS came in his two most successful seasons so when you take scheduling into consideration his two best seasons are average at best.

To please people like me this season they added Miami, Alabama, UCLA and Pepperdine to the pre-conference schedule so that we could be better prepared going into the Sunbelt Schedule. This also gives us a chance to see how we stack up against major competition, and we could gain some notoriety so that we could possibly get a better seed "when we make the tournament", and let's not be fooled, there is only one tournament that counts.

I don't see our team developing into a power Mid-Major. I see our two best players having great natural talent, but they had to go under the tutelage of the coaches on the national teams in order to develop into fine players. I'm not understanding what people are seeing that Marlin is doing for our team?

My personal choice would be to see Marlin replaced when his contract runs out (no more contract extensions and no more raises) unless our team makes the round of 16 in the NCAA tournament, or he has at least two seasons where we make the round of 32. He has been here long enough for this to be 100% HIS TEAM. We now know what he can do, or should I say what he CAN'T DO.

Our football team is overpowered by the major schools, but our baseball and softball teams compete on a high national level. The ladies basketball team has made major strides under our current coach, and the future for them looks like what we have in baseball and softball. When are we going to ask our very highly paid mens basketball team for the same results?

To answer my own questions:

1) What is an acceptable final season record for this team?
22 overall wins (including Springhill and Mississippi College which the NCAA considers exhibition wins)
2) What is an acceptable finish in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament?
Season is unacceptable if we do not win the Regular season Sunbelt title and get an at-large birth into the NCAA or the Conference Tournament earning an automatic bid.
3) Is our season not successful if we are not in the NCAA Tournament?
Yes
4) If we make the NCAA Tournament how far do we think this team SHOULD go?
at least one-win
5) If we do not make the NCAA Tournament what is an acceptable finish in a second or third tier tournament?
Win the entire tournament.

But its so hard to win on the road........

Maybe we should wait until at least mid-season before we start calling for the coaches head.

Lets at least get a little larger sample size.

I'm fine with calling the DII, DIII, and NAIA teams rent a wins. Many of those listed are not, some of them came on the road. How is beating 2 of the better Southland teams last year in their own gym during a post season tournament a rent a win?

For this team to get an at large bid to the NCAA they would have to almost run the table from this point, that ain't happening, nor did I ever expect it too.

Recruiting has not been nearly good enough to do anything more than what we're seeing, IMO. You have Payton, who was a diamond in the rough, and Long, who was a fallback that we couldn't get the first time (glad we got him in the end). Other than that what has he had to work with? Obviously we aren't going to have a full squad of NBA talent, but similar to the football team we are just a middle of the road Sun Belt club where you'll probably win at home and lose on the road.

Nothing against the young men and their abilities, and I do think Marlin does a great job trying to develop character in them. I don't see us doing much more than we've been doing, just the way I see it.