2019 Mississippi River

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CajunNation

We REALLY need a few weeks of no rain for the river basin before snow melt reaches us.

If we don't dry out, and we get a Tropical system to sit over us for a few days, those levees are toast.

---

That would help but it appears the weather pattern is a storm every 4 to 6 days that drops rain or snow.

Here is a map of the flooded areas from the Great Flood of 1927.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by cajun4life

I just saw some pictures and read some stuff on other sites. But if weather allows, I am going to fly up there on Monday and get pictures of my own.

---

Did this happen?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CharlieK

Did this happen?

---

I’ve flown up and down the river twice this week and I haven’t spotted them. But the water is extremely high. Many of the elevated camps on Lake Mary have water in them.

Mississippi River Meander Belts, from a set of maps created in the 1940s...

What happens if the ORCS fails:

https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/la/geolo...-ocr-small.pdf

The Fisk Report, that triggered the creation of the ORCS:

https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/climate/...952-report.pdf

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CharlieK

What happens if the ORCS fails:

https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/la/geolo...-ocr-small.pdf

The Fisk Report, that triggered the creation of the ORCS:

https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/climate/...952-report.pdf

---

Your linked came from inbred Baton Rouge redneck school. I refuse to open them and believe anything that’s in them!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cajunrunner

Your linked came from inbred Baton Rouge redneck school. I refuse to open them and believe anything that's in them!!

---

Field trip for the truly nerdy:

Project Flood and the Mississippi River Flood control design:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CharlieK

Field trip for the truly nerdy:

---

I guess I'm nerdy. I found that a very interesting read. Touring the ORCS and that area is on my weekend discovery list. I'd like to do it while the river is at or near flood stage.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CajunRebel

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production...gure1-2016.png
Here is a graph that shows the increase in frequency of extreme one day precipitation events over the past 100 years.

Those crazy librul scientists and Rob Perillo said that one of the effects of Climate Change was more extreme weather. This means more water falling at one time, which means more water traveling down the Mississippi at one time.

In 1927 a flood of that magnitude was considered a 100 year flood. In 2019, it is more like a 5 or 10 year flood.

Like I said in my first post. This will be the new normal. Get used to it. I hope and pray the Army Corps of Engineers is preparing for it.

---

“A 100 year flood” doesn’t mean what you seem to think it means.

The floods of 1935 and 1947 rivaled 1927 for river stage.

What we see now is driven by physical changes to the land drained by the river as well as to the river itself, some (most?) man made. This process has been going on at an accelerated rate since long before we burned carbon.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BeauCajun

I guess I'm nerdy. I found that a very interesting read. Touring the ORCS and that area is on my weekend discovery list. I'd like to do it while the river is at or near flood stage.

---

I’ve been over it a few times, never in flood stage. Planning a trip over the next few weeks with another fellow nerd....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BeauCajun

I guess I'm nerdy. I found that a very interesting read. Touring the ORCS and that area is on my weekend discovery list. I'd like to do it while the river is at or near flood stage.

---

FYI

I'm not aware of any official tours being conducted during high river stages, maybe but I doubt it. If you just want to see the areas at high river stages, drive through Morganza on Hwy 1, over the Morganza Control Structure, and continue north on Hwy 1, then turn right on Hwy 15 which will take you to the Old River Complex. As long as traffic is still being allowed over the Low Sill structure you will be able to get an idea of how mighty the Mississippi is. Black Hawk Plantation is a few miles north of the ORCS's which is the upstream limit of the USACE New Orleans District authority. From there Vicksburg District takes over.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mahtoo

FYI

I'm not aware of any official tours being conducted during high river stages, maybe but I doubt it. If you just want to see the areas at high river stages, drive through Morganza on Hwy 1, over the Morganza Control Structure, and continue north on Hwy 1, then turn right on Hwy 15 which will take you to the Old River Complex. As long as traffic is still being allowed over the Low Sill structure you will be able to get an idea of how mighty the Mississippi is. Black Hawk Plantation is a few miles north of the ORCS's which is the upstream limit of the USACE New Orleans District authority. From there Vicksburg District takes over.

---

I did that back in 2011 when they were opening morganza spillway. The river was almost up to the road on the river side. I wanted to stop and take photos but there was no place to park AND the strictly prohibited parking in the area unless an emergency. It was scary.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mahtoo

FYI

I'm not aware of any official tours being conducted during high river stages, maybe but I doubt it. If you just want to see the areas at high river stages, drive through Morganza on Hwy 1, over the Morganza Control Structure, and continue north on Hwy 1, then turn right on Hwy 15 which will take you to the Old River Complex. As long as traffic is still being allowed over the Low Sill structure you will be able to get an idea of how mighty the Mississippi is. Black Hawk Plantation is a few miles north of the ORCS's which is the upstream limit of the USACE New Orleans District authority. From there Vicksburg District takes over.

---

Thanks for the info. That was my plan to take a driving tour of the area. I've never been in that part of the state. North of False River and east of Marksville.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BeauCajun

Thanks for the info. That was my plan to take a driving tour of the area. I've never been in that part of the state. North of False River and east of Marksville.

---

You're welcome. I suggest you don't wait too long. If indeed the Morganza structure is opened you are more likely to encounter the No Parking restrictions that Helmut has mentioned. For all I know those parking restrictions might already be in place.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HelmutVII

I did that back in 2011 when they were opening morganza spillway. The river was almost up to the road on the river side. I wanted to stop and take photos but there was no place to park AND the strictly prohibited parking in the area unless an emergency. It was scary.

---

Even more scary than that is to stand on top of the Miss River levee near White Castle or Donaldsonville, where the river alignment changes drastically in those curves, it makes the hair stand up on the back of your neck to see that water coming at you when it's within 3-5 feet of the levee crown. Understand I'm not suggesting anyone access the levee crown to see that. Levee crown access is already restricted.

No one knows what disaster awaits us or when. I would be more worried about a Miss R levee failure below Baton Rouge more specifically than I am about one of the Old River structures failing. If a structure fails, the uncontrolled flow, as much of a disaster as that would be, would still be confined within the levees of the floodways. If a Miss R levee fails we would be confronted with uncontrolled/uncontained/sheet flow that IMO would be the worst possible situation.

FYI: I have been retired from USACE for more than 10 years now so my memory doesn't always serve me well, but as best I recall the Morgan City/Berwick areas are protected to approximately elevation 20 or 22 feet.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mahtoo

Even more scary than that is to stand on top of the Miss River levee near White Castle or Donaldsonville, where the river alignment changes drastically in those curves, it makes the hair stand up on the back of your neck to see that water coming at you when it's within 3-5 feet of the levee crown. Understand I'm not suggesting anyone access the levee crown to see that. Levee crown access is already restricted.

No one knows what disaster awaits us or when. I would be more worried about a Miss R levee failure below Baton Rouge more specifically than I am about one of the Old River structures failing. If a structure fails, the uncontrolled flow, as much of a disaster as that would be, would still be confined within the levees of the floodways. If a Miss R levee fails we would be confronted with uncontrolled/uncontained/sheet flow that IMO would be the worst possible situation.

FYI: I have been retired from USACE for more than 10 years now so my memory doesn't always serve me well, but as best I recall the Morgan City/Berwick areas are protected to approximately elevation 20 or 22 feet.

---

.....I think it was in “Rising Tide” but what was the dynamite story of the levees past NO for the great flood? And could somebody put up that black comedian that would say. ——DY NO MITE!

I was wondering when stories like this would start to show up


https://weather.com/news/news/2019-0...ska-iowa-texas

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mahtoo

You're welcome. I suggest you don't wait too long. If indeed the Morganza structure is opened you are more likely to encounter the No Parking restrictions that Helmut has mentioned. For all I know those parking restrictions might already be in place.

---

I'm hearing rumors that Hwy 1 over the Morganza structure has been closed to traffic. Trying to verify.

East side at Morganza 2011. Dust from dump trucks delivering sand and such. That was on Mother's Day. Kind of puts things in perspective what is occurring 2 months prior to May this year

View from west side.

Man this stuff is so interesting for the uninformed......what is the latest guess based upon the winter storm Ulmer and the bad flooding up North? Also anybody got the dynamite thing? Wasn’t there a big discussion with BWK about the volume of water going into the spillways based upon gates open and why aren’t the gates opened now?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Boomer

winter storm Ulmer,

---

Are you speaking of the cold front traversing the US with an unusually deep low pressure center?

https://www.livescience.com/62085-wi...orm-names.html

There’s a link in there for the 10 worst US blizzards. Amazing how long ago (relative to minute recording time frame) many of those happening. Darn cows!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Boomer

Man this stuff is so interesting for the uninformed......what is the latest guess based upon the winter storm Ulmer and the bad flooding up North? Also anybody got the dynamite thing? Wasn't there a big discussion with BWK about the volume of water going into the spillways based upon gates open and why aren't the gates opened now?

---

The gates? The ORCS gates are operating, Bonnet Carre is open I believe, and the trigger point to open Morganza hasn't been reached yet. Not sure which gates you are asking about.

I'm assuming the "dynamite thing" you are talking about was when they blew up the levee south of new orleans during the 1927 flood. Here is a picture of that.