2019 Mississippi River

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Originally Posted by cajun4life

Back on topic, I've heard that ACoE has notified landowners to remove movable property out of the Morganza Spillway. I haven't confirmed this, so it may just be rumor at this point but I think with the degradation of the levee up around Blackhawk Plantation they may need to relieve som pressure.

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You have any info on the degradation of the levee?

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Originally Posted by Ragin4U

You have any info on the degradation of the levee?

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I just saw some pictures and read some stuff on other sites. But if weather allows, I am going to fly up there on Monday and get pictures of my own.

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Originally Posted by cajun4life

Back on topic, I’ve heard that ACoE has notified landowners to remove movable property out of the Morganza Spillway. I haven’t confirmed this, so it may just be rumor at this point but I think with the degradation of the levee up around Blackhawk Plantation they may need to relieve som pressure.

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Where is Blackhawk Plantation?

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Originally Posted by HelmutVII

Where is Blackhawk Plantation?

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Concordia Parish. On the river

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Originally Posted by HelmutVII

Where is Blackhawk Plantation?

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This shows where it’s at


https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bl...4776e053?gl=us

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Originally Posted by HelmutVII

Go to the your favorite APP store and download USACE Vicksburg APP. It will give you access to lots of valuable information. The Mississippi river stages are predicted to drop after the 15th of March at most stations along the lower reaches of the river. It really needs to do this because once snow melt starts it will probably come up again. The app has a link to twitter feed and river stages.

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However, if you look at the NOAA/NWS experimental forecast (which goes out 16 days of expected weather vs 2 days) it shows that the river starts to drop but immediately reverses and starts to rise again. This is due to the forecasted weather for this weekend. I would assume the official forecast will reflect the long term change in the next few days.

From my completely pedistrian view, this does not look good at all. Red River landing will be at least 12ft above flood stage for over 3 weeks. That has to take a toll on the levees. If there are more rain events in the Mississippi valley or warmer weather that increases snow melt then the river at RR could push all time levels. I really think they will have to open Morganza.

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/experi...sissippi_plot#

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Originally Posted by cypremort

However, if you look at the NOAA/NWS experimental forecast (which goes out 16 days of expected weather vs 2 days) it shows that the river starts to drop but immediately reverses and starts to rise again. This is due to the forecasted weather for this weekend. I would assume the official forecast will reflect the long term change in the next few days.

From my completely pedistrian view, this does not look good at all. Red River landing will be at least 12ft above flood stage for over 3 weeks. That has to take a toll on the levees. If there are more rain events in the Mississippi valley or warmer weather that increases snow melt then the river at RR could push all time levels. I really think they will have to open Morganza.

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/experi...sissippi_plot#

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Correct, but I think we need to be thankful for any lowering of river stages we can get right now. Any lowering of the water surface will give us some breathing room. A little bit of something is better than a lot of nothing.

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Originally Posted by cypremort

However, if you look at the NOAA/NWS experimental forecast (which goes out 16 days of expected weather vs 2 days) it shows that the river starts to drop but immediately reverses and starts to rise again. This is due to the forecasted weather for this weekend. I would assume the official forecast will reflect the long term change in the next few days.

From my completely pedistrian view, this does not look good at all. Red River landing will be at least 12ft above flood stage for over 3 weeks. That has to take a toll on the levees. If there are more rain events in the Mississippi valley or warmer weather that increases snow melt then the river at RR could push all time levels. I really think they will have to open Morganza.

https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/experi...sissippi_plot#

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In the recipe that leads to a failed ORCS, and the Mississippi changing course, we are following it to the letter, so far.

Weather pattern remains same until snow melt, then we get a Tropical system in May.

We're basically almost to the point of being a TS away from absolute catastrophe this nation has never seen.

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Originally Posted by CajunNation

In the recipe that leads to a failed ORCS, and the Mississippi changing course, we are following it to the letter, so far.

Weather pattern remains same until snow melt, then we get a Tropical system in May.

We're basically almost to the point of being a TS away from absolute catastrophe this nation has never seen.

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Familiar with the Swiss Cheese model? It normally applies to human systems but would be applicable to these situations. If the rainfall in the upper watershed occurs in this time span rather than that time span, or if the lower watershed is affected by a Gulf storm or if ... When enough holes line up, that catastrophe occurs.

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Originally Posted by HelmutVII

Where is Blackhawk Plantation?

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A few miles north of the Old River complex.

I just wish that Louisiana would divert more water over Baton Rouge and into Louisiana waters instead of dumping all of the water into Mississippi waters which destroys Mississippi's oyster beds and ruins fishing and shrimp harvest for the year, so in reality if Louisiana wants to protect New Orleans they should dump the water into Louisiana waters and impact their fisheries and not straight into Mississippi waters every time.

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Originally Posted by billbeck451

I just wish that Louisiana would divert more water over Baton Rouge and into Louisiana waters instead of dumping all of the water into Mississippi waters which destroys Mississippi's oyster beds and ruins fishing and shrimp harvest for the year, so in reality if Louisiana wants to protect New Orleans they should dump the water into Louisiana waters and impact their fisheries and not straight into Mississippi waters every time.

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These structures are controlled by the Corps of Engineers, a Federal agency. Louisiana doesn't control this.

just like the Louisiana lobby didnt care that the new levees wpuld cause flooding and push up tidal surges in Mississippi

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Originally Posted by mahtoo

A few miles north of the Old River complex.

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pas bon

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Originally Posted by CajunNation

pas bon

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Agreed, the rivers come very close to each other just north of the ORCS.

Lots of heavy rain in the mid to upper reaches of the Ohio and Mississippi river this weekend. Looks like more to come this coming week. Big storm moving on to the California coast and will be over the Mississippi river basin later thus week.

Status?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterfe...A#a68d8973de0b

Water levels look like they are leveling off at all stations between Baton Rouge and Vicksburg. It was predicted to stabilize until the 15th or 16th and then recede. Lets hope that is true. However, as long as storms from the west continue to traverse the upper Mississippi and Ohio river every 5 to 6 days there will still be a threat of flooding. The first indication of flooding will be on the upper Mississippi downstream of the confluence of the Ohio river with the Mississippi . They flood we are not far behind.

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Originally Posted by Ragin4U

A little like you did here? Good work.

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Sick burn.

Can we move back onto river stages and whether or not Morgan City will exist come July, now?

Big storm to bring blizzard conditions to Denver tomorrow and eventually to the upper portions of the Mississippi river basin. More snow pack to the basin before the end of the week.

Great book on this topic:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Cool map from the Fisk report. The Fisk report is the report that triggered the development of the ORCS.

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Originally Posted by HelmutVII

Big storm to bring blizzard conditions to Denver tomorrow and eventually to the upper portions of the Mississippi river basin. More snow pack to the basin before the end of the week.

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We REALLY need a few weeks of no rain for the river basin before snow melt reaches us.

If we don't dry out, and we get a Tropical system to sit over us for a few days, those levees are toast.

From the fisk report:

"Factors which will accelerate the diversionary process are
the frequency of floods or sustained high-water flows through the dis
tributary, continued dredging in the lower Atchafalaya Basin, and a
critical stage of development occurring before the time of 40 per cent
diversion. In connection with this last factor, any sudden increase in
deterioration of the Mississippi channel immediately below the point of
diversion should be interpreted as marking the beginning of the critical
stage. "

Didn't someone mention the rapid rising of the river bed below ORCS recently. One of the pieces of the puzzle. This was written before development of the ORCS, so who knows how long the structures can hold back the river....