Moody and Tate will be well rested . . .
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Moody and Tate will be well rested . . .
Brian, thank you for your analysis. You help this casual fan understand the convoluted process a little better. Thanks for your analysis in the other thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
You are quite welcome. It has been fun and finished with a great outcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by IberiaCajun
Brian
I was critical of our schedule for having too many midweek home games. We went 1 and 4 in midweek road games but the one win over LSU turned out to be huge. Turns out that being so successful in those midweek home games helped us. Had we lost even one of those vs the SWAC and SLC teams we would be starting vacation now. Whenever you get to play in June your season was successful. Minimizes the time that you start getting antsy for football.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
Especially when you get us in . . .Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
LOL.Quote:
Originally Posted by CajunVic
Brian
Deggs takes some heat on this board including from me this year. I have to tip my cap to him that’s two straight regional appearances re establishing our program where we should be. Congrats coach on the late run this year and let’s go win the damn thing in Miami. Looking at Miami they are good no doubt but they got swept by wake forest and Virginia this year. I like our chances if we can beat Texas first game no easy task.
Have you conceived of a top to bottom measuring stick that can't be gamed?Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
If RPI is going to be continue to be used so heavily, perhaps a simple tweak could improve it. Change the criteria to be 35 percent your record, 33 percent your opponents record and 32 percent the record of the opponents of your opponents. Your results should always be the driving factor of how you are analyzed. That is not the case with the current 25/50/25 formula. I doubt the major schools will ever let that happen however as the current system is to their advantage. Brian, how difficult would it be to recalculate the RPI of tournament teams with my suggestion and then compare it to the current output ?Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
Kyle Peterson said the RPI system needs scrapping right now. Not sure what replaces though. John Cohen stated a more regionally fair system needed to be used.
Unless you have a system that is a black box, it will always be open to some sort of manipulation (by folks such as myself). But you can drive a truck through the manipulation hole of the RPI ... so the bar is really low if you want to implement a non-black box system improvement. It is certainly not my preference, but an improvement is not difficult ... one that goes deeper in determining real SOS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbine
My preference would be a true learning system ... a machine learning approach (machine learning is really just statistical learning). This would be a system that would train on past outcomes while using team resumes and other features (of the learning model) as the inputs from which the system would learn ... and ultimately predict (the most optimal field of participants). While I think this would yield the most optimal result, it would suffer from the same thing that sometimes plagues other machine learning systems. Explainability. These feature models are so complex that they are not understandable to the typical human. And the average fan would likely not accept this when their team is left out or they are not seeded in a manner that meets their expectation.
Even an ML approach can be subject to manipulation (not by teams ... but by the ML engineers that build the system) ... in the training data that is used to generate feature selection and to ultimately train the model. We see this with ChatGPT, Bard, and others. But at least here you can institute some controls that make this an honest approach to the problem. And again, it would not subject to manipulation by schedule makers.
Brian
…and we avoided the often obligatory trip across the basin.
I’m sure they are relieved not to see us or the Colonels. Although they’d never admit it of course.
This would be lipstick on the pig and not a good idea. It does not address the principal flaw ... that it does a very poor job of measuring SOS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajunsmike
Brian
Brian,
Could we just add another level to the strength of schedule such as opponent’s opponent’s opponent winning %?
Plus us a standard deviation to the RPI as such like you had mentioned earlier?
Just getting home, who is Peterson butt hurt over?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dad04
IrvineQuote:
Originally Posted by ZoomZoom
Scot, I think they are always scared of us in the postseason because of all the postseason success we have had at the box. Is that what you think also or something else?
Irvine didn't even have a game vs. the RPI top 25 and finished 4th in the 10th ranked conference.
Awwwww, too bad, not sad. Even Kent of the MAC could have a been, but they realize their numbers aren’t worthy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Million$Mullet
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Just watched the replay. The west coast just has a geographical disadvantage. It shows in all the major sports.
Peterson is just a useful tool to juggle the system, got Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC…need to be able to justify 12 teams in the tournament.
Degg’s style will never change. It just won’t. So we’ll have the same people on here next season screaming to fire him after we lose to a Tech or Nichols or Northwesten in a midweek game. Second year in a row in a regional. Smoke that for a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lej0285
Like Deggs or not, this is Deggs’ program. How UL got there does not matter. The new bar, and Deggs’ personal bar, has been set.
RPI....I would make road wins more valuable. Lower home win value. Currently it's 1.3 for a Away win and 0.7 for Home win. Neutral site being 1.0. I'd make this to 1.4 and 0.6.....slightly neutralize the advantage the teams with home heavy schedules have. Force them to play a handful more away or neutral site games or stay home heavy but drop some in RPI.
I like it so far. Fast teams with some legit power and excellent defense are fun to watch. What's not to like? Pitching you say? Pitching usually regresses during the season as offenses and weather warm up.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZoomZoom
Our pitching got better toward the end. The first 20 games of the season was full of cupcake teams and we gave up 90 runs. The last 20 games including yesterday we gave up 86 runs with very few cupcakes served up, with the exception of 3 ULM games. 5-0 against TX State and 3-3 against Coastal is not bad. We flat wore TX State out and probably kept them out of an at large.
I saw real progress running the pitching staff.
glad to eat some crow, bs.Quote:
Originally Posted by babysitter
Does anyone have a video or link to the team reaction when announced?