Gone Golfin, tell me what happens if the Cajuns take two or more at ASU in Tempe, beat Tulane, and continue to win near 80% of their games. Are there not sixteen regionals now? I would think not being given a regional would and should be unthinkable. ;) ;) ;) ;)
My unthinkable almost always start with a dream of a perfect season.
I would turn it around and say that hosting a regional is certainly not unthinkable. But it would be difficult, even in the scenario that you describe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajun Express
First, the media and press box facilities at Moore Field will hurt the Cajuns' chances. There are so many nice new and renovated ballparks around in 2007 that were not in 2000. But facilities questions aside ...
UL will face stiff competition from the state of Texas. I see Rice, Texas, and maybe Texas A&M hosting. Two of those schools could easily be national seeds. If the season ended today, all three would be hosting.
The West will also pose some problems. I see the West being awarded at least four host regionals, with the possibility of five. Last season the West only hosted three. Pat Murphy of Arizona State replaces Mike Gaski of North Carolina-Wilmington on the NCAA Selection Committee this season. Thus, there will be a stronger lobby for western regionals (and rightfully so). If the season ended today I believe that Oregon State, Pepperdine, and at least two of Cal State-Fullerton, Long Beach State, Arizona State, and San Diego would host.
Other "nearby" regional possibilities (excluding Tulane for now) include Arkansas (possible national seed) and Mississippi. I think the SEC gets four regionals. Vanderbilt and South Carolina are cinches.
Ohio State and Minnesota are playing well and are excellent possibilities to host a northern regional. Wichita State has an excellent shot as well. Nebraska will be in the running. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will aggressively bid and will be in the running.
In the ACC, Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia look like locks. The ACC has a good chance of landing four regionals. Clemson or NC State could be the fourth.
So, when you add up the numbers and only grant the West four regionals, it does not look good ...
Here is a trial guestimate ...
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Arkansas
Mississippi
Florida State
North Carolina
Virginia
Ohio State/Minnesota
Wichita State
Rice
Texas
Texas A&M
Oregon State
Pepperdine
Cal State-Fullerton/Long Beach State
San Diego/Arizona State
Missing from the above list are ... Nebraska, Clemson, NC State, Tulane, Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Southern Mississippi, and Louisiana. This is not an exhaustive list of candidates, but illustrates how difficult it will be.
Impossible? No. But this will be a very big hill to climb. It may take a top 10 RPI (it is very different than 2000). If the NCAA thinks the Cajuns are a #1 seed, they have a chance (this is where facilities and bid amount will come in). The best thing the Cajuns can do is keep winning. The rest will take care of itself.
And yes, it is fun to think about. :-)
Brian
Thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajun Express
Are facilities that big of a factor? Wasn't there a regional site in the past few years that did not lights so games could not be played late?Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
Our attendance seems to be up this year--could that be a factor? If Baton Rouge and New Orleans are not regional sites, do our changes increase?
Anyway it goes, our best chances of hosting or participating in post-season play is continuing to win, right?
Why don't y'all stop thinking about regionals and start thinking about the cajuns giving up 9 runs in the 5th and blowing a 6 run lead...Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajun Express
Exactly......Quote:
Originally Posted by ULforlife
I guarantee not one player or coach at FIU was thinking about a regional, they were just figuring out how to stop the bleeding. Bullpen has it's first bad day of the season. Every unit of every squad has them at least a couple of times a year. A few of those hits in the big FIU inning had eyes that found holes. The team had it's head in the right place. What fans think has little impact.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mineshaft
Because a lot goes into being selected as a regional host and the main question here is whether the Cajuns have a snowball's chance in hell of hosting IF they deserve it at the end of the season. You have to be kidding if you think this talk changes the score of today's game.Quote:
Originally Posted by ULforlife
Quote:
Originally Posted by ULforlife
It was not a good day to say the least. Are you suggesting as a fan, I should not enjoy the moment and look forward to great things? Just sit around in fear that all will come apart. I know you are not saying that. Yes I am very much in the dumps today.........:/\: :/\: :/\: :/\:
Baseball scored more than 1/3 of the points that a potential National Championship basketball team scored. Tell me who show go back to the drawing board??????Quote:
Originally Posted by ULforlife
14-13 That's averaging at least one run per inning. You're team did not average 1 point per MINUTE, including free throws. Go Figure
What in the world are you talking about? Basketball? Why are you even bringing up basketball? And Whose team are you talking about? If you are talking about a UL basketball team it is not 'your' team, it is 'our' team. If you are not talking about a UL team, why are you talking to a person called 'ULforLife' about a team from some other school?Quote:
Originally Posted by gorcajun
Sorry, I thought I was quoting some other post. And you know who I am referring to. My BAD. Bless me Father for I have sinned......
Probably the same people who were talking about the New Orleans Bowl when we were 4-2.Quote:
Originally Posted by ULforlife
You're right it is. If the Cajuns earn the right to host one, it'll be a shame if they do not because of inadequate facilities.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
Let's see now.... Who can we can we put the blame on for facility short comings, lack of forethougt, lack of fundraising, poor leadership in the athletic department........mmmmmmmmm, maybe Coach Robichaux, no,no that's not it......mmmmmmmm maybe Gerald Hebert, no, no that's not it either......mmmmmm Hell, I don't know, any of you out there have someone in mind?:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by DestinCajun
<! UL still hoping to break into national top 25 ->Quote:
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UL's baseball squad remained in this week's top 30 listing by one national publication, and still hasn't broken into any of the other top 25 national polls.
But the Ragin' Cajuns are listed in the top 20 in a pair of listings that are potentially much more important to their end-of-season goals.
The Cajuns are ranked 17th and 19th in two simulations of the NCAA's Ratings Percent-age Index (RPI), lists assembled by Boyd Nation on his boydsworld.com web site and by Warren Nolan on warrennolan.com.
The NCAA does not release its RPI listings until after the regular season is completed, but the RPI is used by the NCAA Baseball Committee as an aid in its at-large team selections for the NCAA Tournament.
A team's RPI is determined mathematically, using a team's won-lost record (normally 25 percent), the won-lost record of its opponents (normally 50 percent) and the won-lost record of those opponents' opponents (normally 25 percent). The categories are combined and the overall percentage is used for rankings.
<center><p><a href="http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070403/SPORTS/704030347/1006/SPORTS" target="_blank">The rest of the story</a>
Dan McDonald
dmcdonald@theadvertiser.com
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The exact percentages and other factors (home field, tie games, neutral-site games) are not made public by the NCAA, but the two pseudo-RPI listings are considered to be extremely close in its percentage applications to the NCAA's actual RPI.
The Cajuns are listed 17th with a .613 mark in the Boyd's World rankings and are ranked 19th at .604 in the Warren Nolan listings. As a point of reference, UL was listed 48th in last year's final Warren Nolan list and was 51st in the Boyd's World ranking, and the Cajuns were not selected as an at-large pick to the NCAA Tournament.
The Sun Belt is ranked 10th in the pseudo-RPI listings out of 31 conferences in both the Warren Nolan and Boyd's World listings. The Sun Belt has had a final NCAA top 10 RPI ranking in five of the last six seasons and was ranked seventh out of the 31 leagues in last year's official rankings.
UL slipped from 28th to 30th in the Collegiate Baseball magazine rankings announced Monday. The Cajuns are not ranked in either the Baseball Weekly magazine or the USA Today/ESPN coaches poll, but are effectively 28th in the latter of those polls since UL is third in the others receiving votes behind the top 25. The other polls do not list other teams receiving votes.
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For us not to be in the top 25 is ludicrous. Manieri and Jones must have voting privileges and have been warned by their AD's to make sure we get no votes.Quote:
Originally Posted by NewsCopy
I am surprised, surprised I tell you, that pepperfan blames LSU for something. Maybe since the cajuns play in a joke of a conference, they don't get much respect when compared to schools who play in real conferences?Quote:
Originally Posted by showdog
Checked just now and we moved up again to 15th today on boyds world. 4-0 again this week should get us back where we need to be...
Well, according to a post i made yesteday in another thread, we stil have the same ratings index @ .613, its just that FSU and perhaps another school dropped below that since yesterday. I guess one or two schools in some far remote corner of the country played each other yesterday and sent shockwaves through the RPI world. Agreed though, TCB and we should move up nicely. Its good to see WKU in the top 80-90 in RPI, if we can get three quality wins against them, that definitely won't suck.Quote:
Originally Posted by ULforlife
But guess who will, and who will not make the regionals...Quote:
Originally Posted by showdog
The Ragin' Cajun baseball team's RPI is currently 16 or so by Warren Nolan... but BOYD'S WORLD has the Cajuns currently at "13", which they say has the proper adjustments and bonuses (as the NCAA's RPI does).
Brian... what do you think about its accuracy?
Here's the link... http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html
I prefer the one produced by SEBaseball.com since it properly includes ties. But the two (Boyd and SEBaseball) are going to be close. BTW, I am referring to the rating, not the ranking.Quote:
Originally Posted by CajunRed
I don't have the SEBaseball RPI numbers from today yet. But I have them from yesterday (after the Lamar win) and can illustrate the comparison to Boyd's numbers from yesterday.
Wednesday morning (4/4) calculations for UL (after Lamar win) ...
SEBaseball.com
Base RPI (.6066, #17), Adjusted RPI (.6150, #14)
Boyd Nation's RPI
Adjusted RPI (.616, #14)
A few notes ...
Nobody knows exactly what adjustments are used by the NCAA. But based on reverse engineering of the formulas each year, they are close. The NCAA does change these from time to time.
Boyd only displays the ratings to the thousandths decimal place (although he calculates to the ten-thousandths decimal place). Hence, you may not see a change from day to day, but the rating is changing.
While Warrennolan.com does not calculate the Adjusted RPI, just the Base RPI, the Base RPI calculation is also not quite correct. I don't even bother with this site.
Brian
The numbers from today (4/5) are ...
SEBaseball.com
Base RPI (.6068, #18), Adjusted RPI (.6152, #13)
Boyd Nation's RPI
Adjusted RPI (.616, #14)
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
that at this point in the season, Texas-San Antonio is the third highest RPI on the Cajun schedule (behind Arizona State and Southern Mississippi) and second highest RPI team the Cajuns have played?
With a Base RPI in the Top 50, the Cajuns are getting a nice RPI bonus boost from sweeping three games on the road from the Road Runners.
Brian