A potential National Seed scenario that concerns me ...

Last night I caught a little of this show SiriusXM This Week in College Baseball. They were interviewing a former member of the selection committee. He said to him the selection process is one of science, RPI. and art, eyeball and smell test.

He greatly discounted mid week games because in regional play you will be facing the best players of both teams like conference and week end games. Mid week games you have a lot of testing and allowing people some playing time. I suppose that is the smell and eyeball test because the numbers are the numbers.

Other things he said was generally true. Prime players getting hurt late not held against teams, and stars coming back late is a plus for team. He regarded how you compete in your conference important. Finally picking the last few at large teams always leaves concerns that they might have made a mistake.

By his logic the win against LSU is no more important than the loss to UNO, both mid week games.

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Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS

Last night I caught a little of this show SiriusXM This Week in College Baseball. They were interviewing a former member of the selection committee. He said to him the selection process is one of science, RPI. and art, eyeball and smell test.

He greatly discounted mid week games because in regional play you will be facing the best players of both teams like conference and week end games. Mid week games you have a lot of testing and allowing people some playing time. I suppose that is the smell and eyeball test because the numbers are the numbers.

Other things he said was generally true. Prime players getting hurt late not held against teams, and stars coming back late is a plus for team. He regarded how you compete in your conference important. Finally picking the last few at large teams always leaves concerns that they might have made a mistake.

By his logic the win against LSU is no more important than the loss to UNO, both mid week games.

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You can't use RPI as the backbone of your selection decisions and, at the same time, discount midweek games. They're baked into the formula. That's an inconsistent statement.

I am just telling you his views. I think this is the 'art' portion of how he viewed things.

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Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS

I am just telling you his views. I think this is the 'art' portion of how he viewed things.

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I hear what he's saying. I just don't buy it. Eye test? How many Cajuns games has any of this committee seen this year? Their eyes are on the RPI, and the reasons they can give to exclude a mid major from a national seed. This year is the perfect year for them to prove me wrong. But I'm doubtful.

He commented that all conferences bring a coaching rep to provide the eye test on the opponents. I guess that means there are about thirty-three of these guys.

Not sure that the smell test supports UL with loses because of a weak bull pen. But hey those prime pitchers are coming back on line so that helps the bull pen, and no mid weak starts makes those guys available for the bull pen. I guess Robe does not get to sell that.

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Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS

He commented that all conferences bring a coaching rep to provide the eye test on the opponents. I guess that means there are about thirty-three of these guys.

Not sure that the smell test supports UL with loses because of a weak bull pen. But hey those prime pitchers are coming back on line so that helps the bull pen, and no mid weak starts makes those guys available for the bull pen. I guess Robe does not get to sell that.

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Because the coaching rep discussing their own conference will definitely say, "The Cajuns aren't as good as advertised. Their bullpen is really weak." They only ran through the conference and won every series, sweeping half of them. :rolleyes:

Virginia is clear cut #1. They've won every series in the #3 RPI conference.

Florida lost series to Miami, Kentucky and TAMU
FSU lost series to Virginia and GaTech
Indiana lost series to TxTech and Long Beach State
Vandy lost series to MSU, Tennessee and Arkansas
Rice lost a series to East Carolina
Houston got swept by Louisville
Oregon State lost a series to Arizona State


I can go on and on. Good teams win at least 2 out of 3 more times than not. Why do you think the national championship got changed to a 3 game set? We've done it every time out this year including a sweep of Southern Miss on the road and beating Alabama (2 shutouts) at home. There's your smell test.

Updated RPI is out - Cajuns at #7

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1/rpi

1 1 Virginia Atlantic Coast 37-9-0 12-5-0 1-1-0 24-3-0 0-0-0
2 3 Florida Southeastern 33-15-0 10-7-0 2-0-0 21-8-0 0-0-0
3 5 Florida St. Atlantic Coast 36-11-0 13-5-0 0-1-0 23-5-0 0-0-0
4 2 Indiana Big Ten 32-12-0 14-8-0 2-2-0 16-2-0 0-0-0
5 8 Vanderbilt Southeastern 36-12-0 11-6-0 1-0-0 24-6-0 0-0-0
6 7 Rice Conference USA 31-15-0 14-6-0 1-2-0 16-7-0 0-0-0
7 12 La.-Lafayette Sun Belt 43-7-0 19-2-0 0-0-0 24-5-0 0-0-0
8 9 Houston AAC 35-13-0 10-3-0 1-2-0 24-8-0 0-0-0
9 10 Oregon St. Pac-12 34-8-0 12-3-0 6-2-0 16-3-0 0-0-0
10 13 TCU Big 12 34-13-0 10-5-0 4-2-0 20-6-0 0-0-0
11 6 South Carolina Southeastern 35-13-0 7-8-0 1-0-0 27-5-0 0-0-0
12 4 Ole Miss Southeastern 35-14-0 12-6-0 0-2-0 23-6-0 0-0-0
13 14 Texas Big 12 34-15-0 10-5-0 3-0-0 21-10-0 0-0-0
14 23 Louisville AAC 37-11-0 9-5-0 2-0-0 26-6-0 0-0-0
15 16 Kentucky Southeastern 28-19-0 8-9-0 3-1-0 17-9-0 0-0-0
16 11 Texas Tech Big 12 36-16-0 6-9-0 2-3-0 28-4-0 0-0-0
17 15 LSU Southeastern 35-13-1 7-9-0 1-0-0 27-4-1 0-0-0
18 18 Miami (FL) Atlantic Coast 34-14-0 14-5-0 0-0-0 20-9-0 0-0-0
19 17 Cal Poly Big West 38-9-0 14-7-0 0-0-0 24-2-0 0-0-0
20 19 Indiana St. Missouri Valley 29-13-0 14-9-0 3-1-0 12-3-0 0-0-0
21 21 Mercer Atlantic Sun 34-11-0 12-9-0 0-0-0 22-2-0 0-0-0
22 22 Liberty Big South 35-10-0 13-4-0 3-2-0 19-4-0 0-0-0
23 25 Oregon Pac-12 34-13-0 13-8-0 0-0-0 21-5-0 0-0-0
24 27 West Virginia Big 12 26-17-0 12-11-0 3-2-0 11-4-0 0-0-0
25 20 Alabama Southeastern 30-18-0 9-9-0 2-0-0 19-9-0 0-0-0

FYI Sunbelt

7 12 La.-Lafayette Sun Belt 43-7-0 19-2-0 0-0-0 24-5-0 0-0-0
55 60 Arkansas St. Sun Belt 27-21-0 9-12-0 0-0-0 18-8-0 0-1-0
67 77 Texas St. Sun Belt 27-21-0 6-15-0 0-0-0 21-6-0 0-0-0
78 88 Western Ky. Sun Belt 27-22-0 8-14-0 1-1-0 18-7-0 0-0-0
128 143 Texas-Arlington Sun Belt 24-25-0 12-10-0 0-0-0 10-15-0 2-0-0
143 148 South Ala. Sun Belt 21-26-0 11-14-0 0-0-0 10-12-0 0-0-0
159 164 Georgia St. Sun Belt 23-25-0 4-12-0 0-0-0 18-13-0 1-0-0
170 156 La.-Monroe Sun Belt 19-30-0 3-19-0 2-0-0 14-11-0 0-0-0
174 158 UALR Sun Belt 21-26-0 3-17-0 0-0-0 18-9-0 0-0-0
193 181 Troy Sun Belt 21-27-0 7-13-0 0-1-0 14-13-0 0-0-0

Interesting that on the Boyd's World needs report the Cajuns are shown 7th in RPI but also says there's no way to reach the threshold of the top 8. Of course that's just a projection. That simply means that in addition to winning out the Cajuns still need some help. Question that has probably already been asked: Are the tournament games counted in the final RPI numbers when considering the 8 national seeds?

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Originally Posted by DieHard1280

Interesting that on the Boyd's World needs report the Cajuns are shown 7th in RPI but also says there's no way to reach the threshold of the top 8. Of course that's just a projection. That simply means that in addition to winning out the Cajuns still need some help. Question that has probably already been asked: Are the tournament games counted in the final RPI numbers when considering the 8 national seeds?

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Didn't Boyd's also say Indiana would be out of the top 8 by now? GULP.

The only predictive forecasting I trust is Brian's, and that's because he chooses his words carefully and backs up his assertions with details about reality instead of guessing.

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Originally Posted by CajunDreDog

So what teams do we need to win the most, and in what order?
What teams do we need to lose the most, and what order?

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Brian? Anyone? :D