D1 Field of 64 Projections

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jacob81

Good news. Upset #1 and the road to Omaha is easy. Hahaha

---

This is the attitude to have.
The 2000 team went on the road and beat #1 seed South Carolina.

It can be done.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CAJUNJUDO

This is the attitude to have.
The 2000 team went on the road and beat #1 seed South Carolina.

It can be done.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Esqueleto

It'll only take one bad weekend for UL to be knocked out of the projections or placed on the fence, too. Gotta play good ball the next 2 weeks

---

which fan do you want to be

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Yes, this is one of their two big problems ... conference finish and record. They still have time to improve and move up ... along with a good conference tournament showing (the NCAA looks at overall conference record).

The other problem ... the reason they have an RPI ranking of 30 is due to some good scheduling. However, they did not win many of those games. Even if you include Q3 (Q1 + Q2 + Q3), they have a losing record (they are 11-3 in Q4). While they will get credit for a strong NC schedule, you need to win. There have been numerous teams in the past left out of the postseason with Top 30 RPIs ... notably from the power conferences. RPI is not an absolute by any means.

Now, they are still in the running for an at-large bid and have time to course correct. But they need a good finish while also hoping that stolen bids are as few as can be.

---

I would also add that JMU has been horrible on the road ... 7-14.

Brian

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CajunVic

which fan do you want to be

---

…….Well my man……why not ask it??? What is your starting lineup for next year and W/E starters?

Georgia state is about to lose at home to Jacksonville state. Great start to the midweek for the belt.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jacob81

Georgia state is about to lose at home to Jacksonville state. Great start to the midweek for the belt.

---

It was less than two weeks ago when I watched the same 14-27 Jacksonville State team go into Troy and beat the Trojans, holding them to three runs. Not a lot of difference between Jacksonville State and Houston Christian.

Troy gets Alabama State tonight.

Brian

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

It was less than two weeks ago when I watched the same 14-27 Jacksonville State team go into Troy and beat the Trojans, holding them to three runs. Not a lot of difference between Jacksonville State and Houston Christian.

Troy gets Alabama State tonight.

Brian

---

Anybody can win any night. Belt needs to finish strong in NC and get back to that #4 rpi spot. Could result in an extra at large.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jacob81

Anybody can win any night. Belt needs to finish strong in NC and get back to that #4 rpi spot. Could result in an extra at large.

---

How true, Southern beat LSU recently this season. On any given night anyone can beat anyone.

Brian,

Who are we rooting for this weekend between Coastal and Southern Miss?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MountainDew

Brian,

Who are we rooting for this weekend between Coastal and Southern Miss?

---

USM since we won the series?

the home team to win 2

Marshall Marshall Marshall. Sucks terribly. How’d we only score 6 runs that weekend. They’re down 8-0 in the 4th to mighty EKU. Belt sucking so far.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jacob81

Marshall Marshall Marshall. Sucks terribly. How’d we only score 6 runs that weekend. They’re down 8-0 in the 4th to mighty EKU. Belt sucking so far.

---

These teams that don't have the pitching depth really suffer mid-week. Saving their arms that they do have for the weekend. Can't blame them.

Mississippi State would be an interesting destination for the Cajuns...

https://x.com/d1baseball/status/1785051446490141069

Clete Hartzog, Troy’s top middle reliever, is in the game now against Alabama State. He came on with two outs in the 4th. Hartzog also earned the opening game win at Coastal.

Alabama State 2 Troy 3 T5th

Brian

If teams put more emphasis on winning mid week non-conference games such as throwing better arms, the entire Sun Belt would improve its conference RPI ranking as this would improve each team’s individual RPI ranking. Every conference goes .500 in conference games. Every game, 1 winner and 1 loser, every conference. What it comes down to is your non-conference schedule and winning percentage.
Not sure why everyone wouldn’t just agree to throw their #1 mid week. Seems crazy but it would work.

winning the non-conference schedule does not get you in a regional

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MountainDew

Brian,

Who are we rooting for this weekend between Coastal and Southern Miss?

---

First priority is that there is not a sweep. If USM were a threat to take an at-large away from the Cajuns, I would say Coastal. But I do not think that will be the case (like it was with South Alabama in 2006 over the Cajuns due to RPI differential). As such, I would like to see USM take 2.

Brian

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by J-Town Cajun

If teams put more emphasis on winning mid week non-conference games such as throwing better arms, the entire Sun Belt would improve its conference RPI ranking as this would improve each team’s individual RPI ranking. Every conference goes .500 in conference games. Every game, 1 winner and 1 loser, every conference. What it comes down to is your non-conference schedule and winning percentage.
Not sure why everyone wouldn’t just agree to throw their #1 mid week. Seems crazy but it would work.

---

Because not every team would play along. It would take full collusion to really work. But some teams would have Grambling or Prairie View A&M midweek and would come to the conclusion that they do not need their #1 to win and would save their top pitching for the conference weekend. This would proceed to break down the “unspoken” collusion piece by piece.

Brian

The belt is the belch so far tonight. Looking #7 rpi conf in the face.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Because not every team would play along. It would take full collusion to really work. But some teams would have Grambling or Prairie View A&M midweek and would come to the conclusion that they do not need their #1 to win and would save their top pitching for the conference weekend. This would proceed to break down the “unspoken” collusion piece by piece.

Brian

---

I know, and you’re right it would take total buy in and it would never happen. But in theory, it’s genius. Haha

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

First priority is that there is not a sweep. If USM were a threat to take an at-large away from the Cajuns, I would say Coastal. But I do not think that will be the case (like it was with South Alabama in 2006 over the Cajuns due to RPI differential). As such, I would like to see USM take 2.

Brian

---

2006 was tough not getting a bid

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by J-Town Cajun

I know, and you’re right it would take total buy in and it would never happen. But in theory, it’s genius. Haha

---

Yes, another "gaming the system" example due to the exploitable RPI.

Brian

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dad04

2006 was tough not getting a bid

---

It bothers me to this day.

If you recall, Steve Kittrell added a game (late in the season) on the road midweek (Tuesday) against Florida State between their last conference game and the Sun Belt Tournament. This was doable thanks to a conference scheduling advantage that befell the Jags ... a bye between their last conference weekend vs. Arkansas State and the beginning of the Sun Belt Tournament (a span of 10 days). Kittrell was smart to make it a road game against a top RPI opponent (Florida State was #9 at selection time). Given it was a non-conference road game, it qualified for the max RPI bonus. Kittrell threw ace PJ Walters at the Seminoles and the Jags won 7-2. Despite pitching and beating Arkansas State 4-3 the prior Friday, Walters threw over 130 pitches against Florida State on three days' rest.

This win vaulted South Alabama a number of RPI spots, growing the RPI ranking differential with the Cajuns from 7 to 17 during that time (38 vs. 55 at selection time). Despite many metrics in factor of the Cajuns ...

- including better conference regular season finish (2nd place 19-5 ... 2.5 full games ahead of 16-7 South Alabama ... 1 game behind regular season champion 20-4 Troy )
- a better overall conference record including Sun Belt Tournament)
- eliminating the Jags from the Sun Belt Tournament (head-to-head was 2-2 ... with 3 games in Mobile and one at a neutral site)
- Cajuns were 2-1 vs. RPI Top 25 ... South Alabama was 2-7
- Cajuns were 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50 ... South Alabama was 6-12
- Cajuns were 14-12 vs. RPI Top 100 ... South Alabama was 17-18

... the selection committee leaned on RPI differential to make the decision between the two teams. As you know, this was a team sandwiched between two good 2005 and 2007 teams ... with 2007 making a strong run to host (#14 RPI at selection time ... just did not have the RPI Top 25 wins ... 0-3).

Brian

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

It bothers me to this day.

If you recall, Steve Kittrell added a game (late in the season) on the road midweek (Tuesday) against Florida State between their last conference game and the Sun Belt Tournament. This was doable thanks to a conference scheduling advantage that befell the Jags ... a bye between their last conference weekend vs. Arkansas State and the beginning of the Sun Belt Tournament (a span of 10 days). Kittrell was smart to make it a road game against a top RPI opponent (Florida State was #9 at selection time). Given it was a non-conference road game, it qualified for the max RPI bonus. Kittrell threw ace PJ Walters at the Seminoles and the Jags won 7-2. Despite pitching and beating Arkansas State 4-3 the prior Friday, Walters threw over 130 pitches against Florida State on three days' rest.

This win vaulted South Alabama a number of RPI spots, growing the RPI ranking differential with the Cajuns from 7 to 17 during that time (38 vs. 55 at selection time). Despite many metrics in factor of the Cajuns ...

- including better conference regular season finish (2 full games)
- a better overall conference record (by 2.5 games ... includes Sun Belt Tournament)
- eliminating the Jags from the Sun Belt Tournament (head-to-head was 2-2 ... with 3 games in Mobile and one at a neutral site)
- Cajuns were 2-1 vs. RPI Top 25 ... South Alabama was 2-7
- Cajuns were 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50 ... South Alabama was 6-12
- Cajuns were 14-12 vs. RPI Top 100 ... South Alabama was 17-18

... the selection committee leaned on RPI differential to make the decision between the two teams. As you know, this was a team sandwiched between two good 2005 and 2007 teams ... with 2007 making a strong run to host (#14 RPI at selection time ... just did not have the RPI Top 25 wins ... 0-3).

Brian

---

Kitrell was crafty. Really good coach and PJ Walters had a rubber arm. He could throw strikes forever. Great college pitcher.