Originally Posted by
GoneGolfin
_ It is an educated guess ... but a guess backed up by due diligence and history.
There are some teams that history shows are near locks for enhancing your RPI, while still providing you an excellent chance to win. The top teams in the SWAC are good examples. I would load up on Southern every year. Play them four times per year ... even if you play two on the road. Southern nearly always does well for your OWP. Jackson State is another team in this category.
You are primarily looking for two things ...
1) Weak teams you can beat that are likely to have winning records. The more over .500, the better. The weak OWP that these teams will have will have a negligible impact on your RPI as it will only become part of your OOWP. Meanwhile, 75% of the formula will be heavily in your favor if you win ... and still 50% if you lose.
2) Strong teams that are likely to have winning records. These teams will really help you if you win (as 100% of the formula is in your favor) ... and will not hurt you if you lose (your RPI may still rise). These teams are also of benefit as they can strengthen your record against the RPI Top 25 and RPI Top50.
You want to avoid ...
1) Quite simply, teams with poor W-L records. They will kill your OWP. Some are so bad that your RPI will fall even if you win. You especially want to avoid decent teams with poor W-L records (Northwestern State) because they played a difficult schedule. Their difficult schedule does not benefit you much (25%) and you also might lose ... in which case 75% of the formula is not in your favor.
2) Teams that have just above or near .500 records, but are good teams. Florida International is a good example. Teams typically towards the bottom of the SEC and Big XII are good examples. They will not help your OWP (probably will not hurt it much either). But there is a decent chance you lose the game.
BTW, many schedule slots are filled in the months leading up to the season.
And as has been discussed on this board ... you may want to consider not re-scheduling certain games that were canceled earlier in the season. You may opt to schedule them the next year (when their record may be greatly improved).
I think looking at the coach of a program is also important. There are many coaches out there that simply field winning teams most of the time. If those coaches move on, you may need to reconsider scheduling them.
Finally, it is reasonable to gauge the chance of a team having a successful W-L record based on the prior year's performance and returning personnel. Obviously this is not foolproof, but it positions the odds in your favor. A little due diligence here can go a long way.
Finally, during the season when games get canceled, I would be actively looking to schedule teams that also have room to fill a game ... that would be advantageous to schedule. Additionally, you need not schedule the max number of games before the season begins. Maybe hold back one or two and try to fill them later when you have more info ... even if you must travel.
This is all about positioning the odds in your favor and trying to find teams that will have a good W-L record.
Brian _
