The Field of 64 and The Bubble

Based on the announced regional sites, here is a cut at what could happen from the perspective of slotting prospective #2 seeds. I looked at this from the standpoint of regional balance and geography (minimizing bus trips) ... knowing also that balance can be completed by assigning #3 and #4 seeds that help correct any imbalance introduced by #2 seed assignments.

The below #2 seed placements resulted in 12 of the 16 schools being able to bus to their respective regionals. Additionally, only one of the 16 involved a long flight. Three of the four "flights" are very short ... with UC Irvine -> Arizona and Southern Mississippi -> Tennessee being less than 500 miles.

Tennessee, Southern Mississippi (Flight) (< 500 miles drive)
Kentucky, Indiana State (Bus)
Texas A&M, Louisiana (Bus)
North Carolina, South Carolina (Bus)
Arkansas, Louisiana Tech (Bus)
Clemson, Vanderbilt (Bus)
Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist (Bus)
Georgia, Wake Forest (Bus)
Florida State, Mississippi State (Bus)
Oklahoma State, Nebraska (Bus)
Virginia, West Virginia (Bus)
North Carolina State, Alabama (Flight) (~600 miles drive)
UC Santa Barbara, San Diego (Bus)
Arizona, UC Irvine (Flight) (< 500 miles)
Oregon State, LSU (Flight)
East Carolina, Duke (Bus)

Now, the above is just a cut at what the #2 seeds might be. But you get the idea.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Based on the announced regional sites, here is a cut at what could happen from the perspective of slotting prospective #2 seeds. I looked at this from the standpoint of regional balance and geography (minimizing bus trips) ... knowing also that balance can be completed by assigning #3 and #4 seeds that help correct any imbalance introduced by #2 seed assignments.

The below #2 seed placements resulted in 12 of the 16 schools being able to bus to their respective regionals. Additionally, only one of the 16 involved a long flight. Three of the four "flights" are very short ... with UC Irvine -> Arizona and Southern Mississippi -> Tennessee being less than 500 miles.

Tennessee, Southern Mississippi (Flight) (< 500 miles drive)
Kentucky, Indiana State (Bus)
Texas A&M, Louisiana (Bus)
North Carolina, South Carolina (Bus)
Arkansas, Louisiana Tech (Bus)
Clemson, Vanderbilt (Bus)
Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist (Bus)
Georgia, Wake Forest (Bus)
Florida State, Mississippi State (Bus)
Oklahoma State, Nebraska (Bus)
Virginia, West Virginia (Bus)
North Carolina State, Alabama (Flight) (~600 miles drive)
UC Santa Barbara, San Diego (Bus)
Arizona, UC Irvine (Flight) (< 500 miles)
Oregon State, LSU (Flight)
East Carolina, Duke (Bus)

Now, the above is just a cut at what the #2 seeds might be. But you get the idea.

Brian

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According to the participant manual, the threshold for bus versus flight is 400 miles.

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Originally Posted by LouisianaB

According to the participant manual, the threshold for bus versus flight is 400 miles.

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Yes, that is what I applied.

Brian

Updating based on the latest information ...

Starting with the teams that are absolutely secure (Top 32).

Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida State, Oklahoma State, NC State, Virginia, UC Santa Barbara, Arizona, Oregon State, East Carolina, Duke, Indiana State, Mississippi State, Dallas Baptist, Wake Forest, LSU, San Diego, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Southern Mississippi, UC Irvine, Nebraska, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana, West Virginia, Alabama.

Seeds may change slightly (Ex. Texas is a #2 instead of a #3, over Alabama), but these teams are secure.

Next we have a group of five teams that I also feel are in the tournament, likely all as #3 seeds (unless the committee gives a significant boost to #48 Texas based on Q1 and conference finish).

Illinois, Texas, Connecticut, TCU, and UCF.

This brings us to 37 teams. Additionally, we have 21 remaining teams that are in the field with an automatic bid (30 total automatic bids ... 34 at-large bids). This brings us to 58 teams, leaving 6 spots open.

The bubble (6 at-large bids available) ...

#30 Florida
#45 Kansas State
#42 College of Charleston
#36 Coastal Carolina
#52 Oregon
#49 Georgia Tech
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#44 James Madison
#55 Indiana
#40 Xavier
#35 Northeastern
#57 Troy
#54 Georgia Southern
#64 California (I do not believe they are in the field, but listed them here as a possibility because D1Baseball had them in the field until their last projection)

While the committee might like to give the Big Ten a third bid with Indiana, I just cannot do it given that the resumes of both Georgia Tech and James Madison are better. I think it will be close between Georgia Tech and James Madison. I would opt for JMU, especially when you consider their SOS and NC SOS (which the committee has demonstrated is important). I just have the feeling that they will opt for GT and use 10 Q1 wins, Q2 differential (4-9 for JMU), and JMU's 5 Q4 losses as reasoning.

Georgia Tech #49 RPI ranking, 10-14 Q1, 4-3 Q2, 1 Q4 loss, #24 SOS, #202 NC SOS)

James Madison #44 RPI ranking, 7-8 Q1, 4-9 Q2, 5 Q4 losses, #41 SOS, #5 NC SOS)

Indiana #55 RPI ranking, 6-10 Q1, 6-4 Q2, 4 Q4 losses, #39 SOS, #67 NC SOS

You could also make the case for JMU over Kansas State, but I do not think the committee goes there.

Regarding College of Charleston, Charleston won the regular season title. If the committee values ECU’s regular season title that much (9th best RPI conference), it will be difficult leaving Charleston out of the field winning the 10th best RPI conference).

Note that if they opt to utilize KPI for any tiebreakers, here we have ...

Coastal Carolina #19
Alabama #22
Florida #23
Texas #25
Georgia Tech #34
Louisiana #35
James Madison #42
Kansas State #43
College of Charleston #47
Indiana #48

Interestingly, East Carolina is #29 in KPI.

Here are the 21 remaining auto-bids mentioned above ...

#34 UNCW
#51 Saint John's
#75 VCU
#61 Nicholls
#46 Wofford
#115 Bryant
#266 Oral Roberts
#124 Army
#132 Southeast Missouri
#128 Western Michigan
#180 Penn
#149 Northern Kentucky
#122 High Point
#103 Niagara
#100 Stetson
#182 Fresno State
#196 Long Island
#96 Grand Canyon (Tarleton State is not eligible for postseason play)
#235 Grambling
#86 Tulane
#76 Evansville

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CajunVic

I am watching that game, not so much pulling for any team.

Last year there were two STM boys in the starting lineup that played baseball with my boys and whose parents I am good friends with so I pulled for Tulane.

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One of those 2 came on vacation with me when they were going to be freshman and I found out after he graduated that he and my boy stole my beer on that trip. He told me that summer after they graduated. That would be the lefty that played center in high school. Who was the other STM kid didn’t realize there were 2.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Based on the announced regional sites, here is a cut at what could happen from the perspective of slotting prospective #2 seeds. I looked at this from the standpoint of regional balance and geography (minimizing bus trips) ... knowing also that balance can be completed by assigning #3 and #4 seeds that help correct any imbalance introduced by #2 seed assignments.

The below #2 seed placements resulted in 12 of the 16 schools being able to bus to their respective regionals. Additionally, only one of the 16 involved a long flight. Three of the four "flights" are very short ... with UC Irvine -> Arizona and Southern Mississippi -> Tennessee being less than 500 miles.

Tennessee, Southern Mississippi (Flight) (< 500 miles drive)
Kentucky, Indiana State (Bus)
Texas A&M, Louisiana (Bus)
North Carolina, South Carolina (Bus)
Arkansas, Louisiana Tech (Bus)
Clemson, Vanderbilt (Bus)
Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist (Bus)
Georgia, Wake Forest (Bus)
Florida State, Mississippi State (Bus)
Oklahoma State, Nebraska (Bus)
Virginia, West Virginia (Bus)
North Carolina State, Alabama (Flight) (~600 miles drive)
UC Santa Barbara, San Diego (Bus)
Arizona, UC Irvine (Flight) (< 500 miles)
Oregon State, LSU (Flight)
East Carolina, Duke (Bus)

Now, the above is just a cut at what the #2 seeds might be. But you get the idea.

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Alternatively, if Texas is a #2 I think they are in College Station. Assuming Louisiana is not a #3 (they still could be), you could still have 12 bus trips by sending Louisiana to the NC State regional as the #2. Or swap Louisiana and Southern Mississippi ... sending Louisiana to Knoxville.

Tennessee, Southern Mississippi (Flight) (< 500 miles drive)
Kentucky, Indiana State (Bus)
Texas A&M, Texas (Bus)
North Carolina, South Carolina (Bus)
Arkansas, Louisiana Tech (Bus)
Clemson, Vanderbilt (Bus)
Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist (Bus)
Georgia, Wake Forest (Bus)
Florida State, Mississippi State (Bus)
Oklahoma State, Nebraska (Bus)
Virginia, West Virginia (Bus)
North Carolina State, Louisiana (Flight)
UC Santa Barbara, San Diego (Bus)
Arizona, UC Irvine (Flight) (< 500 miles)
Oregon State, LSU (Flight)
East Carolina, Duke (Bus)

Brian

Indiana at 55 in right off the bat. Ugh…

K State at 45 in


Someone about to get jobbed.

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Originally Posted by ZoomZoom

Indiana at 55 in right off the bat. Ugh…

K State at 45 in


Someone about to get jobbed.

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Not good for JMU.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Not good for JMU.

Brian

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And they make it.

JMU is in

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IdeaL

JMU is in

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Good for them! Probably not good for coastal.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Not good for JMU.

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Now not good for Coastal.

Brian