Analyzing the Bubble

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Originally Posted by Cajun Monkee

Just kind of glancing over a few articles, and it would seem, I think that slightly more projections include the Cajuns than not.

But what I am seeing that concerns me is arguments that North Carolina State, regardless of a losing conference record, should be in because of their RPI while schools like Kansas State, Arizona State, and Oklahoma, should be in regardless of their RPI. And losing records in conference play.

And from what I saw of all the “mathing“ in the hours following our conference championship, Coastal actually went up in RPI, Southern Miss and Troy stayed pat, and we dropped one spot… Simply for making and losing in the conference championship game.

(Maybe whoever it was that canceled the football conference championship a couple of years ago, and decreed Coastal conference champion should’ve canceled yesterday‘s game likewise).

And not meaning to single out CajunRage, but reading your posts is starting to help me see Turbine’s point about double dipping.

What I am gathering through your posts is that the Cajuns should be penalized twice for losing games against inferior competition… Once by calculation in the RPI, and a second time for simply losing to inferior competition.

And also looking at Brian’s post… Just go look at the RPI rankings in the 40s above and below us.

I think under no circumstances should teams who win 1/3 of their conference games should make the NCAA tournament.

And when you compare our RPI calculating factors, I think we are better than schools like Cal Irvine and Kent State.

Approaching half of the 64 available spots are going to be awarded to the SEC, the ACC, the Pac 12, and the big 12.

At the end of the day, it seems the smarks are making arguments on why not to exclude P5 teams.

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The point that I’m not getting across is (and I can see where it seemed this way in a couple posts) I’m not saying the committee is penalizing us for those losses. I’m saying that when you look at our schedule, that’s 3 wins that could make a significant difference and were in our control. Once the schedule is made, you can’t control your opponents record. I’d much rather have a control your destiny mindset rather than hope for our opponents to play better or blame that when we left wins in the table.

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Originally Posted by CajunRage

The point that I’m not getting across is (and I can see where it seemed this way in a couple posts) I’m not saying the committee is penalizing us for those losses. I’m saying that when you look at our schedule, that’s 3 wins that could make a significant difference and were in our control. Once the schedule is made, you can’t control your opponents record. I’d much rather have a control your destiny mindset rather than hope for our opponents to play better or blame that when we left wins in the table.

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You are correct in your assessment. But every team loses games that they feel they should have won.

If we are cherry picking flipped results, beating Miss St in Biloxi and not losing one of the games to High Point would be at the top of my list.

Beating coastal 3 times and Texas state 5 times more than makes up for losses to JMU and App.

The non-conference strength of schedule of 123 is a big deal.

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Originally Posted by Cajun Monkee

And from what I saw of all the “mathing“ in the hours following our conference championship, Coastal actually went up in RPI, Southern Miss and Troy stayed pat, and we dropped one spot… Simply for making and losing in the conference championship game.

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It was not that CC's RPI went up ... it dropped after Saturday and stayed the same after Sunday. It was their RPI ranking that moved up a bit (due to other action affecting those teams).

The Cajuns dropped only .00135 in RPI (loss to USM) ... but they dropped a three spots because the teams were stacked on top of each other. If you look at #46 Kent State, they are at .55563 while the Cajuns are at .55560. Warren Nolan only reports RPI to four decimal places ... and thus shows both schools with the same RPI. This is how close they are. Meanwhile, #48 Viriginia Tech is at .55554. The Tulane win over ECU was enough for the Cajuns to pass Virginia Tech into the #47 slot ... and was almost enough to eclipse Kent State out of the #46 spot.

Brian

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Originally Posted by Million$Mullet

Ok I’ve had my morning coffee and read through the 7 pages of this thread that I missed last night. Sheesh….anywho, I must say I still got a feeling. Not sure it’s the coffee running through or what but I got a feeling.

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Maybe the residual, .08 g% bac?

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Originally Posted by sportsfanatic21

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What’s hurting their RPI is merely showing up for home games against High Point (3), Grambling, Southern, and Jackson State.

BYU, SLU, Tulane, and La. Tech having a terrible aggregate record this season also hurt.

The schedule is why they are sweating this morning. Some of it self inflicted (3 SWAC teams) some of it just bad luck due to opponents having bad years.

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In the end, BYU and Jackson State did not hurt, despite their RPI rankings. The Cajuns' RPI went up slightly with those five wins on the schedule.

Tulane was a slight negative as was Louisiana Tech (due to a loss).

Brian

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

In the end, BYU and Jackson State did not hurt, despite their RPI rankings. The Cajuns' RPI went up slightly with those five wins on the schedule.

Tulane was a slight negative as was Louisiana Tech (due to a loss).

Brian

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How big of a detriment was the High Point series, in general, and more so, losing one of those games?

If that’s too much of a chore, no worries, but that was a team that went from 4th in the Big South in 2022 to 8th this year.

There are so many t-tiny increments of movements available I’m not sure how anyone pinpoints that T-tiny movement which will end up being the operative one or ones.

Prayer may be a more operative barometer at this point . . .

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Originally Posted by sportsfanatic21

You are correct in your assessment. But every team loses games that they feel they should have won.

If we are cherry picking flipped results, beating Miss St in Biloxi and not losing one of the games to High Point would be at the top of my list.

Beating coastal 3 times and Texas state 5 times more than makes up for losses to JMU and App.

The non-conference strength of schedule of 123 is a big deal.

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South Al high point and rice are all losses that I thought about but we won all 3 series. It’s hard to sweep in baseball that’s why you can’t assume one against anyone and it’s bad to get swept. That’s why I’m focused on those series.

And I don’t want to hurt Brian’s feelings but I hate the RPI’ing of all this. I know you have to have it but when losing to one team is better than beating another, it’s just frustrating.

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Originally Posted by CajunRage

South Al high point and rice are all losses that I thought about but we won all 3 series. It’s hard to sweep in baseball that’s why you can’t assume one against anyone and it’s bad to get swept. That’s why I’m focused on those series.

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Brooms, dust mops, vacuum cleaners, air purifiers, they all count . . .

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Originally Posted by sportsfanatic21

How big of a detriment was the High Point series, in general, and more so, losing one of those games?

If that’s too much of a chore, no worries, but that was a team that went from 4th in the Big South in 2022 to 8th this year.

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High Point hurt, particularly because it was a home loss. A win there and the Cajuns have an RPI ranking of 42.

Brian

High Point was a low point.

Only if one gets the point

Woohoo!
Louisiana is in!