Season long look at UL's trek through the Baseball RPI rankings

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Originally Posted by TuffGuy84

Of all teams in the belt this year, I would not have picked FIU to be a RPI graveyard, yet their RPI is around 222 according to boydsworld, why are they SO low this year, even with a winning record.

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The problem mostly lies with the following schools on their schedule ...

Florida A&M (3-0), aRPI 281
Rhode Island (3-1), aRPI 268
Wagner (2-1), aRPI 261
Manhattan (0-2), aRPI 170

So, here you have 10/27 games against teams with an Adjusted RPI of 261 or below. Folks, it does not get much lower than that. There are 293 teams playing Division I baseball this season. An additional two games were against a team with an Adjusted RPI of 170 and both games were losses!

Just playing those ten games (aRPI 261 and below) kills your RPI. I pity the team that loses any of those games. FIU lost two of them. In addition to hurting the Base RPI by 1) scheduling these games and 2) losing two of these games, FIU also took an RPI penalty in losing those two aforementioned games. In the case of the Rhode Island loss, it was the maximum RPI penalty (loss at home to a non-conference Bottom 25 Base RPI team).

Now, I will say that Rhode Island is better than their RPI indicates and part of the reason their RPI is so low is that they are still early in their season. Some of the teams they have on their schedule are quite decent. They did take one of three from California. But they are 2-14 on this young season. I believe their RPI will climb and it will help FIU.

FIU, as well as some of the teams in the Sun Belt simply need to do a better job of scheduling. Now, it is more difficult for some teams to schedule well than others. I think UALR has some challenges. But I do not feel that FIU has many valid excuses. There are plenty of good Div. I programs nearby that fit the bill. They do not need to begin the non-conference season with 19/21 games at home. While the budget will limit some travel, they do not need to travel far to log some good games.

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Originally Posted by TuffGuy84

Also, I know Its early, but I want to know what you think we need to do to have a shot as a host for a regional (As in a sub 16 RPI and/or conference championship and/or conference championship). I'd love to see us do it, and with LSU and Tulane having down years, you would think that there would be an open spot in the region.

Its all early, but its fun to think.

Thanks in advance,
Tuffguy

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I think this is going to be an extremely difficult year in which to host. Facilities questions aside for the Cajuns, I think Texas and the West will provide challenges to any school hosting in Louisiana this season. No team in Louisiana sticks out as an obvious #1 seed this season, nor is anyone a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, you have Texas, Rice, and Texas A&M all playing good #1 seed baseball. At least one would be a National Seed right now. Arkansas is a host. The state of Mississippi may host as well. That is five sites relatively nearby.

But I think there will be a change in the West this season. With Oregon State winning the national championship, more western teams having outstanding seasons this year, and Pat Murphy joining the Selection Committee, I think that the West will have at least four sites and possibly five this season. Oregon State and Arizona State are good choices at this point. Pepperdine and San Diego also have good shots. Finally, Cal State-Fullerton and Long Beach State are good possibilities (at least one). So, you are likely looking at 4->5 in the West.

I also think that several teams in the Big Ten are having good enough seasons (Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan) that it is becoming increasingly likely that one of them will host (The NCAA prefers to have representation in the North). Add in that we have not even covered the ACC or the rest of the SEC and the number of available host sites is quickly becoming small.

So, I would not be surprised if the state of Louisiana is not hosting this year, as was the case last year.

Brian

I guess FIU scheduled Florida A & M because 0-22 Chicago State wasn't available that weekend. :)

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

C'mon guys. I would not have the Cajuns in my Top 25 either. They are not far away, probably Top 30. But I do not see any teams in the CB Top 25 or BA Top 25 that I would have behind the Cajuns at this point, except maybe Southern Cal (ranked #25 in BA). But there are also a few teams that I would slot in front of the Cajuns for that last spot in the BA poll.

Brian

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Brian,

I really appreciate and respect your opinions and love when you post here or appear on Jay's show, but.......

How can you say that we don't belong in the top 25 when there are teams there with 7, 8, 9 and 10 losses? Yes, we have stumbled against some teams that we should have beat, but so has Rice and others in the top 25. You can't tell me that the BA staff has seen us play. Hell, college baseball is not televised so those guys can't be watching all the games. My feeling is, and I could be wrong, is that we are a victim of the "Mid Major" labeling just like we are in football and basketball. The people who vote on these polls are biased in favor of the big name schools from big name conferences. You can't honestly tell me that Kentucky deserves to be ahead of us. They have played absolutely nobody except for LSU, and as down as LSU is this year, they had trouble with them.

I'm not saying we are top 10, but come on. We are top 25. I'm not trying to pick a fight because like I said, I respect your opinion and love the insight you give us on this board. I guess we just have to agree to disagree. :D

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Originally Posted by cajunproud

Brian,

I really appreciate and respect your opinions and love when you post here or appear on Jay's show, but.......

How can you say that we don't belong in the top 25 when there are teams there with 7, 8, 9 and 10 losses?

You can't tell me that the BA staff has seen us play.

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It is OK to disagree. But I think that unequivocally stating that "we belong in the Top 25" requires you to know something about and examine the teams in the Top 25 that you think the Cajuns should displace. You would also need to examine some of the teams in the vicinity of the Top 25 that also did not make the cut (and make the comparison to the Cajuns).

I am not trying to pick on you here, but since you posed the question, allow me to turn it around on you. How many of those teams have you seen play this season? How much do you know about them?

Now, I will say that I do not think the Cajuns are far away. But I do think it is nonsense to think that it is obvious the Cajuns should be in the Top 25. There are some very good teams in the 20 -> 30 range in all of the polls that are not far away from one another.

As far as some of the teams with 7 -> 10 losses are concerned, the answer is that their caliber of schedule far exceeds that of the Cajuns. Let's take Long Beach State for example. The Dirtbags are a non-inspiring 13-9. But when you look at their schedule and the teams they have beaten, you tend to cringe.

LBSU ...
- took 2/3 vs. Southern California with two of the games on the road
- took 2/3 vs. Texas
- took 1/3 at Rice
- took 2/3 at Arizona State
- took 1/3 at Wichita State
- took 1/3 vs. Cal State-Fullerton
- 2-0 vs. UCLA
- 2-0 vs. California

That is their entire schedule thus far! Do you see any patsies in that schedule? It is downright brutal and the wins they have registered are impressive. LBSU is playing .500 ball against the Top 25 and is over .500 against the RPI Top 25. This means they squarely belong in the Top 25 and in my opinion, are actually underrated. Normally, a .500 record against the Top 25 (especially with most of the games on the road) would mean that you should be ranked well into the Top 25, assuming the games are normally distributed over the rankings.

Long Beach State being in the Top 25 with nine losses is a no-brainer. But only after you examine their schedule.

Brian

LBSU is also playing mostly teams from the west coast, who besides Cal State Fullerton is just completely sorry in baseball. But every teams arguement is relative to the person making the arguement.

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Originally Posted by CajunApostle

LBSU is also playing mostly teams from the west coast, who besides Cal State Fullerton is just completely sorry in baseball. But every teams arguement is relative to the person making the arguement.

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I assume the above was a joke.

Brian

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

It is OK to disagree. But I think that unequivocally stating that "we belong in the Top 25" requires you to know something about and examine the teams in the Top 25 that you think the Cajuns should displace. You would also need to examine some of the teams in the vicinity of the Top 25 that also did not make the cut (and make the comparison to the Cajuns).

I am not trying to pick on you here, but since you posed the question, allow me to turn it around on you. How many of those teams have you seen play this season? How much do you know about them?

Now, I will say that I do not think the Cajuns are far away. But I do think it is nonsense to think that it is obvious the Cajuns should be in the Top 25. There are some very good teams in the 20 -> 30 range in all of the polls that are not far away from one another.

As far as some of the teams with 7 -> 10 losses are concerned, the answer is that their caliber of schedule far exceeds that of the Cajuns. Let's take Long Beach State for example. The Dirtbags are a non-inspiring 13-9. But when you look at their schedule and the teams they have beaten, you tend to cringe.

LBSU ...
- took 2/3 vs. Southern California with two of the games on the road
- took 2/3 vs. Texas
- took 1/3 at Rice
- took 2/3 at Arizona State
- took 1/3 at Wichita State
- took 1/3 vs. Cal State-Fullerton
- 2-0 vs. UCLA
- 2-0 vs. California

That is their entire schedule thus far! Do you see any patsies in that schedule? It is downright brutal and the wins they have registered are impressive. LBSU is playing .500 ball against the Top 25 and is over .500 against the RPI Top 25. This means they squarely belong in the Top 25 and in my opinion, are actually underrated. Normally, a .500 record against the Top 25 (especially with most of the games on the road) would mean that you should be ranked well into the Top 25, assuming the games are normally distributed over the rankings.

Long Beach State being in the Top 25 with nine losses is a no-brainer. But only after you examine their schedule.

Brian

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Point very well taken Brian. Like I said, I enjoy and respect your opinion and analysis.

However, I guess my point is, the rankings are very much subjective and how can someone truly compare teams and the teams that they are playing if they have not seen them play? The Cajuns RPI is in the top 20 and has been since day one, except for the week when they beat McNeese twice. So obviously, that says something about who they have played and beat.

I also think, there is a natural bias, for whatever reason, in favor of the West Coast and SEC. I went on line and looked at Kentucky's schedule. Other than Arkansas and LSU (who is having a very down year), they have played NO ONE, and they struggled to beat LSU in the Saturday game and tied in the third (rediculous to have a tie in baseball).

You are also correct in that I have not seen any of the other teams play, but as a former collegiate athlete and baseball player, I know talent when I see it, and this Cajun team has the most since the 1999 and 2000 teams.

You may be correct and then again, I may be correct and we may both be totally off base (I'm probably more off base than you are:D ). It just makes me mad when we receive no respect from the national media, especially since we have been a very successful baseball program, even before Coach Robe arrived. Everybody likes to talk about South Alabama, but all I seem to remember is that they choke whenevery they get to the regionals.

Anyway, thank you for your analysis and opinions, and keep them coming.

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Originally Posted by cajunproud

Point very well taken Brian. Like I said, I enjoy and respect your opinion and analysis.

However, I guess my point is, the rankings are very much subjective and how can someone truly compare teams and the teams that they are playing if they have not seen them play?

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Thanks for the kind words (as you always provide). I understand the point you are trying to make.

Rankings are not just "very much" subjective but *are entirely* subjective. But if it were a requirement that everyone see every team play (and how many times?), you would not have rankings. This is simply not feasible. By your own criteria, you have no justification for the Cajuns being in the Top 25. How many teams have you seen play in your, say, Top 40? And how many times have you seen those teams play? I have only seen about half of those teams play thus far this season. And I watch a lot of college ball. Incidentally, I also listen to a larger number of teams. Some other writers also take this approach.

The bottom line is that the analysis of raw results must play a large part in assessing the realtive strength of a team. You can then analyze these results against teams you have seen play, in order to form an opinion. This is necessary because you cannot see every team play every game.

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Originally Posted by cajunproud

The Cajuns RPI is in the top 20 and has been since day one, except for the week when they beat McNeese twice. So obviously, that says something about who they have played and beat.

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Day one for the RPI has not even begun. Just because it is published does not mean it is a useful tool yet. We have talked about this in the past.

The RPI is still a poor measuring stick. Do not forget what the RPI really is. The RPI is primarily (75%) the strength of your schedule. By using the RPI as an argument, you just contradicted your earlier assertion concerning Long Beach State being in the Top 25. LBSU is #2 in the latest SEBaseball Adjusted RPI (#3 in Base RPI). Why are they this high? Because of their SOS.

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Originally Posted by cajunproud

I also think, there is a natural bias, for whatever reason, in favor of the West Coast and SEC. I went on line and looked at Kentucky's schedule. Other than Arkansas and LSU (who is having a very down year), they have played NO ONE, and they struggled to beat LSU in the Saturday game and tied in the third (rediculous to have a tie in baseball).

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I believe that there is some bias w/respect to the larger schools. I would not confine it to the West and SEC. But I do not think the bias is that strong overall. I do think that the rankings by the West are correct at this point. I think you get less bias in some of the writer polls (other than BA and CB). I think that the real bias with BA is not the big school syndrome, but the projection of professional talent tunnel vision (POPTTV - OK, I made up that acronym).

As for Kentucky, I was hard on Kentucky this season for playing such a weak schedule. But the Wildcats are 3-2-1 against Arkansas and LSU. Not bad. LSU did not take a single game this past weekend. Kentucky did better against LSU on the road than South Carolina did against LSU at home. And Kentucky *did not* struggle to beat LSU on Friday night (winning 16-2). LSU may be having a down year, but they are not a bad team. They are still in the running for an NCAA bid. Remember that this LSU team also took 2/3 from Southern Mississippi.

I may or may not have Kentucky in the Top 25. But I have not seen anything yet that makes UL an obvious pick over Kentucky. The Cajuns have not played many top teams either (actually, fewer than Kentucky). They will get a chance to prove themselves at ASU.

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Originally Posted by cajunproud

You are also correct in that I have not seen any of the other teams play, but as a former collegiate athlete and baseball player, I know talent when I see it, and this Cajun team has the most since the 1999 and 2000 teams.

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That alone does not mean Top 25. This is entirely subjective and I am not convinced this is the case. The 2002 team *may* have been better and they were not a consensus Top 25 team. Besides, this is a different year entirely. In other words, the benchmark is different. You can have a Top 15 team one year that would not be a Top 25 in another.

What we have to go on thus far is performance to this point. Based on that, I see a few more than 25 teams ahead of the Cajuns. If the Cajuns go 4-0 this week, depending on what happens to some of the other teams, that could change.

Keep supporting the Cajuns!

Brian

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Thanks for the kind words (as you always provide). I understand the point you are trying to make.

Rankings are not just "very much" subjective but *are entirely* subjective. But if it were a requirement that everyone see every team play (and how many times?), you would not have rankings. This is simply not feasible. By your own criteria, you have no justification for the Cajuns being in the Top 25. How many teams have you seen play in your, say, Top 40? And how many times have you seen those teams play? I have only seen about half of those teams play thus far this season. And I watch a lot of college ball. Incidentally, I also listen to a larger number of teams. Some other writers also take this approach.

The bottom line is that the analysis of raw results must play a large part in assessing the realtive strength of a team. You can then analyze these results against teams you have seen play, in order to form an opinion. This is necessary because you cannot see every team play every game.


Day one for the RPI has not even begun. Just because it is published does not mean it is a useful tool yet. We have talked about this in the past.

The RPI is still a poor measuring stick. Do not forget what the RPI really is. The RPI is primarily (75%) the strength of your schedule. By using the RPI as an argument, you just contradicted your earlier assertion concerning Long Beach State being in the Top 25. LBSU is #2 in the latest SEBaseball Adjusted RPI (#3 in Base RPI). Why are they this high? Because of their SOS.


I believe that there is some bias w/respect to the larger schools. I would not confine it to the West and SEC. But I do not think the bias is that strong overall. I do think that the rankings by the West are correct at this point. I think you get less bias in some of the writer polls (other than BA and CB). I think that the real bias with BA is not the big school syndrome, but the projection of professional talent tunnel vision (POPTTV - OK, I made up that acronym).

As for Kentucky, I was hard on Kentucky this season for playing such a weak schedule. But the Wildcats are 3-2-1 against Arkansas and LSU. Not bad. LSU did not take a single game this past weekend. Kentucky did better against LSU on the road than South Carolina did against LSU at home. And Kentucky *did not* struggle to beat LSU on Friday night (winning 16-2). LSU may be having a down year, but they are not a bad team. They are still in the running for an NCAA bid. Remember that this LSU team also took 2/3 from Southern Mississippi.

I may or may not have Kentucky in the Top 25. But I have not seen anything yet that makes UL an obvious pick over Kentucky. The Cajuns have not played many top teams either (actually, fewer than Kentucky). They will get a chance to prove themselves at ASU.


That alone does not mean Top 25. This is entirely subjective and I am not convinced this is the case. The 2002 team *may* have been better and they were not a consensus Top 25 team. Besides, this is a different year entirely. In other words, the benchmark is different. You can have a Top 15 team one year that would not be a Top 25 in another.

What we have to go on thus far is performance to this point. Based on that, I see a few more than 25 teams ahead of the Cajuns. If the Cajuns go 4-0 this week, depending on what happens to some of the other teams, that could change.

Keep supporting the Cajuns!

Brian

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Thanks Brian for setting me straight:D

I still think we are top 25 though;)

A poll ranking and $4 gets you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. TCB in a Regional is what gets this team up in the morning...getting there one pitch at a time. They have to believe they are the best team on the field, that day.