Sun Belt Conference softball tournament

We are down to the final week of regular season play.

Standings:
1. ULM 14-7
2. Texas State 13-8
3. Coastal Carolina 12-9
Georgia Southern 12-9
Marshall 12-9
6. Appalachian State 11-10
Louisiana 11-10
8. Southern Mississippi 10-10
9. Troy 10-11
10. James Madison 9-12
11. South Alabama 8-12
12. Georgia State 3-18

The two bottom teams are left out of the conference tournament. Georgia State is the only team eliminated so far.

Schedule:
Texas State at ULM
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State
Georgia Southern at James Madison
Georgia State at Marshall
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana
South Alabama at Troy

The top 5 teams are all eligible for the #1 seed. ULM gets it with two wins, Texas State gets it with a sweep. The 12-9 teams must sweep to be in the picture.
Troy, James Madison and South Alabama are the only other teams that can be eliminated from the conference tournament.

The regular season ends on Saturday and the conference tournament starts the following Wednesday.

Thank you for your synopsis of the situation.

A UL series win over USM guarantees that we finish ahead of USM, USA, JMU and GaSt.
Any combination of UL wins and Troy losses equaling 3 or more puts us ahead of Troy.
Any combination of UL wins and losses by App which equals 4 or more puts us ahead of App.
The magic number vs TxSt, GaSo, CCU and Marshall is 5.
The magic number vs ULM is 6.

It is impossible for UL to pass both ULM and TxSt, therefore we are eliminated from the # 1 seed.
Though we are not mathematically eliminated from the # 2 seed, to reach that would require a UL win + opponent loss of 4 or more against App, and 5 or more against ALL of TxSt, CCU, GaSo and Marshall.

If we sweep USM and ULM wins 2 vs TxSt, and App wins 2 vs CCU and JMU wins 2 vs GaSo, we would be the # 3 seed behind ULM and Marshall.

The likelihood of all this happening is virtually zero, I think we will end up as either 5 or 6, with an outside chance at 4.

What needs to happen for UL to get the optimum seeding:

TxSt at ULM: a sweep either way or a ULM series win.
CCU at App: an App series win, preferably not a sweep.
GaSo at JMU: a JMU series win, preferably a Dukes Sweep.
GaSt at MU: a miracle. [GaSt series win]
USM at UL: a series win, preferably a Cajuns sweep
USA at Troy: anything but a Troy Sweep.

Geaux Cajuns

Quote:

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Originally Posted by VObserver

A UL series win over USM guarantees that we finish ahead of USM, USA, JMU and GaSt.
Any combination of UL wins and Troy losses equaling 3 or more puts us ahead of Troy.
Any combination of UL wins and losses by App which equals 4 or more puts us ahead of App.
The magic number vs TxSt, GaSo, CCU and Marshall is 5.
The magic number vs ULM is 6.

It is impossible for UL to pass both ULM and TxSt, therefore we are eliminated from the # 1 seed.
Though we are not mathematically eliminated from the # 2 seed, to reach that would require a UL win + opponent loss of 4 or more against App, and 5 or more against ALL of TxSt, CCU, GaSo and Marshall.

If we sweep USM and ULM wins 2 vs TxSt, and App wins 2 vs CCU and JMU wins 2 vs GaSo, we would be the # 3 seed behind ULM and Marshall.

The likelihood of all this happening is virtually zero, I think we will end up as either 5 or 6, with an outside chance at 4.

What needs to happen for UL to get the optimum seeding:

TxSt at ULM: a sweep either way or a ULM series win.
CCU at App: an App series win, preferably not a sweep.
GaSo at JMU: a JMU series win, preferably a Dukes Sweep.
GaSt at MU: a miracle. [GaSt series win]
USM at UL: a series win, preferably a Cajuns sweep
USA at Troy: anything but a Troy Sweep.

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This team has responded well to address the tournament seeding which is our only way to get in the big dance. Geaux Cajuns!

Additional information:

ULM, Texas State, Coastal Carolina, Marshall and Louisiana are the only teams that have not been swept in any series this season, which means they have at least one win over every team they have played thus far. With the conference tournament a complete single elimination format, these are the most likely teams to win the tournament.

Teams with series sweeps:
ULM - 3 (Georgia Southern, Troy, Georgia State)
Texas State - 3 (Appalachian State, Southern Mississippi, South Alabama)
Appalachian State - 2 (James Madison, Georgia State)
Coastal Carolina - 1 (Georgia State)
Georgia Southern - 1 (Georgia State)
Marshall - 1 (James Madison)
Louisiana - 1 (South Alabama)
Southern Mississippi - 1 (South Alabama)
James Madison - 1 (Georgia State)
South Alabama - 1 (James Madison)
Troy - 0
Georgia State - 0

It appears right now that the Sun Belt is unlikely to get an at large bid to the NCAA tournament. Coastal Carolina is the highest ranked team at the moment (#42), but with games upcoming against Appalachian State (21-25), their ranking is likely to fall further, no matter if they sweep. Texas State and Louisiana are well out of at large range (#57 and #58 respectively), so it's looking like a one bid league this year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by VObserver

A UL series win over USM guarantees that we finish ahead of USM, USA, JMU and GaSt.
Any combination of UL wins and Troy losses equaling 3 or more puts us ahead of Troy.
Any combination of UL wins and losses by App which equals 4 or more puts us ahead of App.
The magic number vs TxSt, GaSo, CCU and Marshall is 5.
The magic number vs ULM is 6.

It is impossible for UL to pass both ULM and TxSt, therefore we are eliminated from the # 1 seed.
Though we are not mathematically eliminated from the # 2 seed, to reach that would require a UL win + opponent loss of 4 or more against App, and 5 or more against ALL of TxSt, CCU, GaSo and Marshall.

If we sweep USM and ULM wins 2 vs TxSt, and App wins 2 vs CCU and JMU wins 2 vs GaSo, we would be the # 3 seed behind ULM and Marshall.

The likelihood of all this happening is virtually zero, I think we will end up as either 5 or 6, with an outside chance at 4.

What needs to happen for UL to get the optimum seeding:

TxSt at ULM: a sweep either way or a ULM series win.
CCU at App: an App series win, preferably not a sweep.
GaSo at JMU: a JMU series win, preferably a Dukes Sweep.
GaSt at MU: a miracle. [GaSt series win]
USM at UL: a series win, preferably a Cajuns sweep
USA at Troy: anything but a Troy Sweep.

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Who would win a tiebreaker between Louisiana & App. State if we end up tied, since we don't play them?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lcitsh

Additional information:

ULM, Texas State, Coastal Carolina, Marshall and Louisiana are the only teams that have not been swept in any series this season, which means they have at least one win over every team they have played thus far. With the conference tournament a complete single elimination format, these are the most likely teams to win the tournament.

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Great stat

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ragin50

Who would win a tiebreaker between Louisiana & App. State if we end up tied, since we don't play them?

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Cajuns have the tiebreak because of the wins over Texas State. Texas State swept Appalachian State.

Why wouldn’t Texas State get the #1 seed if they win 2 of 3? Both teams would be 15-9 with Texas State having the head-to-head advantage.

I guess they would need help from the teams tied for third 🤔

TxSt would get the # 1 in that scenario provided neither Marshall nor CCU sweeps their games this weekend. If either sweeps then there would be a 3 way tie in which case both Marshall and CCU hold series wins over TxSt and neither played ULM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by VObserver

TxSt would get the # 1 in that scenario provided neither Marshall nor CCU sweeps their games this weekend. If either sweeps then there would be a 3 way tie in which case both Marshall and CCU hold series wins over TxSt and neither played ULM.

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Thank you.