Effect of Conference Realignment on NCAA Tournament Bids

The collapse of the PAC 12 could have profound impact on the distribution of at-large bids to the NCAA Softball Tournament. The most immediate effect is the reduction of automatic bids from 32 to 31, which increases the number of at-large bids to 33. On the face of it this seems to favor the non-P4 schools; but I do not believe that to be the case. The switch of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, and the varied distribution of the old PAC 12 teams has strengthened the SEC, the Big 10 and the ACC, while slightly weakening the Big 12.

As a result, two weeks into conference play we have 4 automatic bids for the P4, 27 automatic bids for other conferences and 33 bids available to teams who do not win their conference. Assuming selection based solely on RPI [which does not happen, as we all know], using today's RPI numbers, the bid count would be: SEC 15 bids, ACC 8 bids, Big 10 6 bids, Big 12 6 bids, AAC 2 bids, everyone else 1 bid each. The only non-champion getting in from a non-P4 would be USF [RPI 39]. The last team in would be BYU [RPI 40].

The only bids that can be stolen are the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, AAC, CUSA, MWC and/or SBC. No other conference has a team in the top 45 RPI. There are 5 P4 and 5 non-P4 teams in the first 10 out. Louisiana is currently at 48. Given our remaining schedule, it is possible, but not likely for us to get to a level to get us an at-large bid. We have 7 top 50 and 8 51-100 games left. We probably have to win 12 of those and sweep the remaining 6, then make a deep tournament run to be in position to get an at-large.